Overview
Saudi Arabia bombed a Yemeni port on December 30 to destroy weapons the UAE shipped to separatist forces—forces that were supposed to be on the same side. Two ships from the Emirati port of Fujairah disabled their tracking systems and unloaded combat vehicles and heavy weapons for the Southern Transitional Council, which just seized 80% of Yemen's oil reserves and territory bordering Saudi Arabia. Within hours, Yemen's government declared a 90-day state of emergency, imposed a 72-hour air-sea-land blockade, canceled its defense pact with the UAE, and demanded all Emirati forces leave within 24 hours. The UAE announced voluntary withdrawal by evening. Saudi Arabia called UAE actions an 'extremely dangerous' threat to its national security.
This isn't just another skirmish in Yemen's endless war—it's the spectacular collapse of both the Saudi-UAE coalition and Yemen's own government. Four of eight Presidential Leadership Council members publicly denounced Chairman al-Alimi's ultimatum as 'unilateral' and unconstitutional, splitting the government into opposing camps. The UAE backs southern secession while Saudi Arabia desperately tries to preserve a unified Yemen and protect its 425-mile border. At stake: Yemen's massive oil reserves, critical shipping lanes, and whether the Middle East's richest neighbors will fight a proxy war against each other while Yemen's government tears itself apart.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
UAE-backed separatist force that both sits in Yemen's government and fights against it.
Yemen's internationally recognized government that exists mostly on paper.
Once-unified military alliance now bombing its own members' weapons shipments.
Timeline
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UAE Denies Weapons Shipment Allegations
StatementUAE Foreign Ministry categorically rejects allegations it pressured or directed STC to carry out military operations threatening Saudi security. Claims vehicles at Mukalla were for UAE forces, not STC, and Saudi Arabia was informed of shipment.
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Four PLC Members Denounce Al-Alimi's Decisions
PoliticalFour of eight Presidential Leadership Council members—aligned with STC—issue statement calling al-Alimi's ultimatum and emergency declaration 'clear violation' of power-transfer agreement, stating PLC decisions must be made by consensus, not unilateral action. Government splits 4-4.
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Saudi Arabia Calls UAE Actions 'Extremely Dangerous'
StatementSaudi Foreign Ministry issues formal statement declaring UAE actions in Yemen threaten Kingdom's national security, constitute violation of coalition principles, calls situation 'extremely dangerous,' demands UAE halt all military and financial support to armed groups.
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Yemen Imposes 72-Hour Blockade
PoliticalPresidential Leadership Council announces 72-hour air, sea, and land blockade on all ports, airports, and border crossings in response to STC rebellion and UAE support.
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Yemen Declares 90-Day State of Emergency
PoliticalAl-Alimi declares nationwide state of emergency for 90 days, citing need to counteract coup and internal strife caused by military rebellion in eastern provinces aimed at dividing Yemen.
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UAE Announces Troop Withdrawal
PoliticalUAE announces voluntary withdrawal of remaining counterterrorism forces from Yemen. Emirati Foreign Ministry denies shipping weapons, claims vehicles were for UAE forces and Saudi Arabia knew about shipment.
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Saudi Arabia Backs UAE Ultimatum
StatementSaudi Foreign Ministry states UAE actions constitute threat to Kingdom's national security and regional stability, describes moves as extremely dangerous, demands UAE end all support to armed groups.
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Yemen Issues 24-Hour UAE Ultimatum
PoliticalPresidential Leadership Council Chairman al-Alimi cancels joint defense agreement with UAE, demands all Emirati forces withdraw from Yemen within 24 hours, states UAE role has become directed against Yemeni people.
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Saudi Arabia Bombs Mukalla Port
MilitarySaudi coalition strikes Mukalla port targeting weapons and combat vehicles from two UAE ships that entered without authorization, disabled tracking systems, and unloaded equipment for STC forces.
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Yemen Government Requests Coalition Intervention
PoliticalPresidential Leadership Council formally requests Saudi-led coalition military action to counter STC advances.
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Saudi Defense Minister Issues Withdrawal Demand
StatementPrince Khalid bin Salman publicly calls on STC to withdraw from Hadramawt and Mahra peacefully, warning time is running out.
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First Saudi Strikes on STC Positions
MilitarySaudi Arabia conducts two airstrikes on STC positions in Wadi Nahb, Hadramawt, following clashes with Saudi-linked tribal leader.
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Saudi Arabia Warns STC
StatementSaudi Foreign Ministry describes STC operations as unjustified escalation. Coalition spokesperson warns military moves violating de-escalation will be dealt with directly.
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STC Captures Hadramawt and Mahra
MilitarySTC seizes control of oil-rich Hadramawt and Mahra governorates, capturing 80% of Yemen's proven oil reserves and territory bordering Saudi Arabia and Oman.
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Operation Promising Future Begins
MilitarySTC launches sweeping offensive across southern Yemen, codenamed Operation Promising Future.
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STC Calls for Two-State Solution
PoliticalAl-Zoubaidi publicly advocates splitting Yemen into separate northern and southern states, abandoning pretense of unity government.
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Presidential Leadership Council Formed
PoliticalPresident Hadi transfers power to eight-member council including STC's al-Zoubaidi as Vice President. Attempt to formalize power-sharing after Riyadh Agreement failures.
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UAE Withdraws Most Forces
MilitaryUAE pulls out bulk of troops but continues supporting STC and other southern armed groups, fully diverging from Saudi strategy.
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Riyadh Agreement Signed
PoliticalGovernment and STC sign Saudi-mediated power-sharing deal. Most provisions go unimplemented as STC continues territorial expansion.
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UAE Airstrikes Kill 300 Government Soldiers
MilitaryUAE conducts airstrikes on government positions outside Aden, killing and injuring over 300 Saudi-backed troops. Coalition openly fighting itself.
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STC Seizes Aden from Government
MilitarySouthern Transitional Council captures Yemen's temporary capital Aden from government forces, revealing fault lines within anti-Houthi coalition.
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UAE Forms Southern Transitional Council
PoliticalAidarus al-Zoubaidi announces formation of STC calling for southern secession with UAE backing. Represents first major divergence in Saudi-UAE Yemen strategy.
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Saudi Arabia Launches Yemen Intervention
MilitarySaudi-UAE coalition begins Operation Decisive Storm to restore President Hadi's government and counter Houthi rebels who seized Sanaa. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman orchestrates intervention as defense minister.
Scenarios
Saudi Arabia Accepts De Facto Yemen Partition
Discussed by: The Washington Institute, Middle East Institute analysts
Saudi Arabia eventually recognizes it cannot prevent southern secession and negotiates a face-saving arrangement. The STC consolidates control over former South Yemen's six governorates while the PLC maintains nominal authority in government-held areas and Houthis keep the north. Saudi Arabia secures border guarantees and continued oil access in exchange for withdrawing opposition to partition. The UAE gets its southern client state controlling critical ports and oil fields. This outcome requires Saudi Arabia to abandon the unified Yemen it spent ten years and billions trying to preserve, but offers the exit from Yemen that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman desperately wants.
Saudi-UAE Proxy War Escalates Across Yemen
Discussed by: Council on Foreign Relations, Arab Center DC analysts
Neither side backs down and the conflict expands into open Saudi-UAE proxy warfare. Saudi Arabia arms and funds tribal forces and government troops to retake Hadramawt and Mahra while the UAE doubles down on STC support. Fighting spreads beyond the south as each side tries to weaken the other's position. The Houthis exploit the chaos, breaking the ceasefire and resuming attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. Yemen fragments into three or more competing zones. This scenario risks becoming self-fulfilling—if trust between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi collapses completely, both have invested too much in Yemen to simply walk away.
UAE Withdraws, STC Loses Territory Without Backing
Discussed by: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, regional diplomacy observers
The UAE calculates that Yemen isn't worth a direct confrontation with Saudi Arabia and actually follows through on withdrawing forces and cutting STC support. Without Emirati military backing and weapons, STC forces cannot hold their December gains against Saudi-backed government troops and tribal militias. The PLC retakes Hadramawt and Mahra over several months of fighting. This represents a significant UAE retreat and Saudi victory, but requires Abu Dhabi to abandon its southern Yemen project after eight years of investment. The scenario's main driver would be UAE leadership deciding that preserving the Saudi relationship and avoiding a costly conflict matters more than the strategic benefits of a client state in southern Yemen.
Regional Powers Broker Temporary Ceasefire Deal
Discussed by: UN Yemen envoy office, Gulf Cooperation Council mediators
International pressure and economic calculations push Saudi Arabia and UAE to a negotiated pause. A new agreement—likely mediated by Oman or other GCC states—establishes temporary boundaries, freezes military positions, and creates a framework for eventual political resolution. The STC keeps practical control of captured territory while negotiations drag on. Neither side gets what it wants but both avoid the costs of escalation. This scenario resembles the failed Riyadh Agreement, and the pattern suggests any deal would be violated within months. But it gives all parties breathing room and allows them to claim diplomatic progress while planning next moves.
Historical Context
1994 Yemen Civil War
May-July 1994What Happened
Just four years after North and South Yemen unified in 1990, southern leaders tried to secede, declaring the Democratic Republic of Yemen on May 21, 1994. Northern forces crushed the rebellion within months. No country recognized the southern state and most Yemeni Socialist Party leaders fled into exile. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia was one of the only countries to support the southern secessionists, worried that a unified Yemen would destabilize the region.
Outcome
Short term: Northern victory reunified Yemen under President Ali Abdullah Saleh's control.
Long term: Southern grievances festered for decades, spawning the Southern Movement in 2007 and eventually the STC in 2017. The 1994 war proved secession could be militarily defeated but not politically resolved.
Why It's Relevant
The 2025 crisis is 1994 in reverse—this time Saudi Arabia opposes southern secession while the UAE backs it. STC leaders explicitly invoke 1994's failure and argue they won't repeat mistakes that allowed northern forces to win.
1960s Yemen Civil War and Proxy Conflict
1962-1970What Happened
After royalists were overthrown in North Yemen, Saudi Arabia backed the monarchists while Egypt sent 70,000 troops to support the republicans. The Soviet Union armed Egypt as its regional proxy. What started as internal Yemeni politics became a Cold War proxy battle that contributed to tensions leading to the 1967 Six-Day War. The conflict killed over 100,000 Yemenis and ended only when Egypt withdrew after its 1967 defeat.
Outcome
Short term: Republican government survived but Yemen remained unstable and impoverished.
Long term: Established pattern of regional powers fighting proxy wars in Yemen rather than direct confrontation. Yemen became known as the graveyard of intervention.
Why It's Relevant
Both the 1960s and current conflicts show how quickly Yemen's civil wars become regional proxy competitions with devastating humanitarian costs. The pattern is identical—external powers choose sides, pour in weapons, and Yemen burns.
2017 Saudi-Qatar Crisis
June 2017-January 2021What Happened
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed relations with Qatar, imposed a blockade, and issued 13 demands including shutting down Al Jazeera and cutting ties with Iran. The quartet expected Qatar to capitulate within weeks. Instead Qatar aligned closer with Turkey and Iran, the blockade failed economically, and the crisis dragged on for three and a half years before ending with minimal Qatari concessions.
Outcome
Short term: The blockade disrupted Gulf Cooperation Council unity but Qatar survived economically and politically.
Long term: Demonstrated limits of Saudi-UAE coercion against a wealthy, determined Gulf neighbor. Ultimately required US mediation to resolve with face-saving agreement in January 2021.
Why It's Relevant
Shows Saudi Arabia and UAE can be on the same side of regional conflicts when interests align. But it also reveals both countries' tendency to overestimate their leverage and underestimate costs of confrontation. The Yemen rift could follow similar pattern—initial escalation, prolonged standoff, eventual negotiated de-escalation that changes little.