Overview
Two former allies just fought a proxy war in Yemen—against each other. Saudi Arabia bombed a UAE arms shipment in January 2026 after UAE-backed separatists seized Aden and Yemen's oil fields. Within a week, Saudi-backed forces crushed the rebellion, forcing the separatist leader to flee. The STC announced dissolution on January 9, but immediately rejected its own announcement, exposing deep fractures between members in Riyadh and those loyal to Abu Dhabi.
What started as a joint intervention against Houthi rebels in 2015 has fractured into a power struggle over Yemen's future. Saudi Arabia wants territorial integrity on its southern border. The UAE wants southern independence to expand influence from the Horn of Africa to the Red Sea. Even after military defeat, thousands rallied in Aden on January 10 waving South Yemen flags, proving the separatist dream survives despite losing every battle.
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Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
UAE-created proxy force seeking to restore South Yemen independence along 1990 borders.
Eight-member executive council created by Saudi Arabia to unify anti-Houthi factions.
Timeline
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Supreme Military Committee Formed Under Saudi Command
MilitaryPLC announces formation of committee to oversee all southern military forces under Saudi coalition leadership, consolidating Riyadh's command structure.
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Thousands Rally in Aden Supporting STC
PoliticalMassive demonstration in Khor Maksar district despite dissolution announcement. Protesters wave South Yemen flags, chant anti-Saudi slogans, and display photos of al-Zubaidi.
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STC Rejects Dissolution as 'Null and Void'
PoliticalSTC holds 'extraordinary meeting' declaring January 9 dissolution announcement made 'under coercion and pressure,' calls for mass protests in southern cities.
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STC Announces Dissolution
PoliticalSTC Secretary-General announces dissolution from Riyadh after losing all territory. Abu Dhabi spokesman rejects announcement, revealing internal split.
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PLC Reshuffles Government, Dismisses Aden Governor
PoliticalAl-Alimi dismisses defense, transport, and planning ministers plus Aden governor Lamlas. Appoints STC founding member Abdulrahman Al-Yafei as new Aden governor.
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Saudi Arabia Details Al-Zubaidi's Escape Route
PoliticalSaudi coalition reveals al-Zubaidi fled Aden by sea to Berbera, Somaliland, then flew via Mogadishu to UAE's Al Reef military airport with identification systems disabled.
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Government Forces Retake Aden
MilitaryPLC forces enter Aden as STC resistance collapses. Al-Alimi expels al-Zubaidi from council, charges him with treason. Al-Zubaidi flees to UAE.
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Government Forces Retake Mukalla
MilitaryPLC captures Mukalla and all nine Hadhramaut districts, reclaiming oil infrastructure.
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Government Forces Retake Seiyun
MilitaryPLC forces capture Seiyun, beginning rapid reversal of STC territorial gains.
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Saudi Arabia Launches Airstrikes on STC
MilitaryRoyal Saudi Air Force strikes STC positions in Hadhramaut, killing at least 20 fighters. Saudi-backed government launches counteroffensive.
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STC Launches 'Promising Future' Offensive
MilitaryUAE-backed forces seize Hadhramaut and al-Mahra governorates, capturing oil fields and 80% of Yemen's reserves without PLC approval.
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Presidential Leadership Council Formed
PoliticalSaudi Arabia forces Hadi to cede power to eight-member council including al-Zubaidi. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi pledge $3 billion.
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Riyadh Agreement Signed
PoliticalSaudi Arabia brokers power-sharing deal between Hadi government and STC, attempting to reunify anti-Houthi forces.
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STC Seizes Aden from Government
MilitaryUAE-backed separatists capture the wartime capital, exposing Saudi-UAE divergence on Yemen's future.
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Southern Transitional Council Founded
PoliticalAl-Zubaidi creates UAE-backed STC to advocate for southern independence, splitting the anti-Houthi coalition.
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President Hadi Fires Aden Governor
PoliticalHadi dismisses Aidarus al-Zubaidi as Aden governor for alleged disloyalty and UAE ties, triggering mass protests.
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Saudi-UAE Coalition Launches Yemen Intervention
MilitarySaudi Arabia and UAE begin military campaign to restore Hadi government and counter Houthi control of the north.
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Houthis Seize Capital Sanaa
MilitaryIran-backed Houthi rebels capture Yemen's capital, eventually controlling northern regions with 60-65% of the population.
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South Yemen Declares Secession
PoliticalVice President Ali Salem al-Beidh declares the Democratic Republic of Yemen. Northern forces crush the secession by July, creating lasting southern grievances.
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North and South Yemen Unify
PoliticalThe Yemen Arab Republic and People's Democratic Republic of Yemen merge to form the Republic of Yemen, ending 23 years of division.
Scenarios
Saudi Arabia Consolidates Control, Southern Separatism Dormant
Discussed by: The Washington Institute, Bloomberg, CNN analysts
Riyadh uses its decisive military victory to force the UAE into accepting Saudi primacy in Yemen. The STC dissolves fully, with members either integrating into the PLC or exiting politics. Saudi Arabia maintains a unified Yemen as a buffer state, preventing both Houthi expansion and southern independence. Abu Dhabi, having lost its proxy force and facing Saudi pressure, redirects resources to other regional priorities like Sudan and the Horn of Africa. Southern separatist sentiment persists but lacks organized leadership or external backing.
UAE Rebuilds STC Under Different Leadership
Discussed by: Middle East Eye, Sana'a Center analysts, regional security experts
Despite the dissolution announcement, the UAE maintains relationships with STC military commanders and begins reorganizing separatist forces under new leadership, possibly excluding al-Zubaidi. Abu Dhabi learned from the failed offensive and pursues a slower strategy focused on economic leverage through control of ports and infrastructure rather than overt territorial seizures. The STC re-emerges as a political movement rather than armed force, advocating for autonomy within a federal Yemen structure. Saudi-UAE tensions simmer as proxy competition continues through economic rather than military means.
Saudi-UAE Confrontation Escalates to Regional Crisis
Discussed by: Foreign Policy, The Soufan Center, Gulf analysts
The January 2026 clash marks the beginning of a broader Saudi-UAE rivalry playing out across multiple theaters including Sudan, Libya, and the Red Sea corridor. Riyadh continues pressuring Abu Dhabi to abandon separatist proxies; the UAE refuses and doubles down on supporting non-state actors to fragment regional states. Egypt aligns firmly with Saudi Arabia, creating a regional bloc opposing UAE influence. The confrontation stops short of direct military conflict but fractures Gulf Cooperation Council unity and creates competing spheres of influence that reshape Middle East alliances for years.
Yemen Fragments into De Facto Partition
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Yemen analysts, regional observers
Despite Saudi military success, the PLC lacks capacity to govern recaptured territories effectively. Local power brokers fill the vacuum, creating fragmented control across southern Yemen. The Houthis continue controlling the north, the PLC holds nominal authority from Riyadh, and tribal/local militias control actual territory in the south. Yemen becomes a patchwork of competing authorities without functioning central government. International recognition remains with the PLC, but reality on the ground is permanent partition along three or more zones of control, making future unification nearly impossible.
Historical Context
1994 Yemen Civil War: Southern Secession Crushed
May-July 1994What Happened
Four years after unification, southern Vice President Ali Salem al-Beidh declared independence as the Democratic Republic of Yemen, citing northern domination and appropriation of southern oil resources. No country recognized the breakaway state. Northern forces captured Aden within two months, crushing the secession and forcing southern leaders into exile.
Outcome
Short term: Northern Yemen established military dominance, reduced southern representation in parliament, and abolished power-sharing arrangements.
Long term: The defeat created lasting grievances that fueled the Southern Movement and eventually the STC. Many 1994 fighters, including al-Zubaidi, became 2017 separatist leaders.
Why It's Relevant
The 2026 STC collapse mirrors 1994: a southern independence bid crushed by superior forces, leaders fleeing to exile, and separatist dreams deferred but not extinguished.
Saudi-Qatar Crisis 2017-2021: Gulf Alliance Fractures
June 2017 - January 2021What Happened
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain severed ties with Qatar, imposing a land, air, and sea blockade over allegations of supporting terrorism and ties to Iran. The quartet demanded Qatar close Al Jazeera, shut down a Turkish military base, and align foreign policy with Saudi/UAE positions. Qatar refused all demands. The U.S. attempted mediation while maintaining military ties with all parties.
Outcome
Short term: Qatar deepened relationships with Turkey and Iran, undermining the blockade. Kuwait and Oman remained neutral, exposing GCC disunity.
Long term: The crisis ended in January 2021 with Saudi-Qatar reconciliation, but UAE remained distant from Doha. The blockade demonstrated Gulf states could pursue divergent regional strategies.
Why It's Relevant
The Qatar crisis showed Gulf unity is fragile and UAE-Saudi interests can sharply diverge. The 2026 Yemen clash suggests an even deeper rift, as the two largest Gulf powers now back opposing forces in armed conflict.
Soviet-Afghan War: Proxy Turned Enemy
1979-1989What Happened
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia funded mujahideen fighters to resist Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, funneling billions through Pakistan's intelligence services. The coalition succeeded in forcing Soviet withdrawal in 1989. However, the power vacuum and lack of post-war planning led to civil war, eventually bringing the Taliban to power and providing safe haven for al-Qaeda.
Outcome
Short term: Soviet defeat represented a major Cold War victory for Western and Gulf state sponsors of the resistance.
Long term: Former CIA-backed fighters turned against their sponsors. The Taliban harbored terrorists who attacked the U.S. on 9/11, leading to two decades of American military presence.
Why It's Relevant
Yemen illustrates similar risks when regional powers create proxy forces without exit strategies. The UAE built the STC as an anti-Houthi proxy, but the separatists pursued independence, threatening Saudi interests and turning allies into adversaries.