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America's longest shadow war: two decades of counterterrorism in Somalia

America's longest shadow war: two decades of counterterrorism in Somalia

Force in Play

U.S. and Somali forces wage an escalating campaign against al-Shabaab as the militant group proves resilient despite territorial losses

February 16th, 2026: Badhadhe Operation Kills 60+ Al-Shabaab Fighters

Overview

Since 2007, the United States has conducted hundreds of airstrikes and special operations raids against al-Shabaab in Somalia—more than in any other country outside of declared war zones. On February 16, 2026, Jubaland and American forces completed a four-day operation in Badhadhe District, killing more than 60 al-Shabaab fighters and destroying camps, communication centers, and depots with over 100 types of explosives.

The February 2026 operation reflects a broader escalation under the new administration. AFRICOM conducted 124 airstrikes in Somalia during 2025, twelve times the 2024 rate, plus 26 more in early 2026. Yet al-Shabaab, with an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters, remains the strongest and best-financed al-Qaeda affiliate, controlling southern Somalia and conducting attacks that killed more Somalis in 2022 than any year since 2017.

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Key Indicators

60+
Al-Shabaab fighters killed
Casualties from the February 2026 Badhadhe District operation
124
U.S. airstrikes in 2025
Twelve times the number conducted in 2024, reflecting major escalation
~400
U.S. troops deployed
American forces stationed primarily in Puntland's Bari region
7,000-12,000
Estimated al-Shabaab fighters
Group's strength remains uncertain due to continuous recruitment

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

October 2002 February 2026

14 events Latest: February 16th, 2026 · 4 months ago Showing 8 of 14
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  1. Badhadhe Operation Kills 60+ Al-Shabaab Fighters

    Latest Military

    Jubaland forces with U.S. support complete four-day operation, destroying militant camps, communications centers, and depots with over 100 types of explosives.

  2. Jubaland Forces Score Victory in Kuda

    Military

    Jubaland security forces capture Kuda town in Badhadhe District, described as one of most decisive defeats ever inflicted on al-Shabaab in southern Somalia.

  3. Al-Shabaab Assassination Attempt on President Mohamud

    Attack

    Militants detonate explosives targeting presidential motorcade near Villa Somalia, killing four bystanders. President survives.

  4. Al-Shabaab Launches Major Counteroffensive

    Military

    Al-Shabaab captures dozens of towns, reclaiming territory lost in 2022-2023 as government offensive stalls and African Union forces draw down.

  5. Somalia Launches 'Total War' Against Al-Shabaab

    Military

    President Mohamud announces offensive to eliminate al-Shabaab within five months. Campaign recaptures over 215 locations through 2023.

  6. Al-Shabaab's Largest Cross-Border Attack

    Military

    Approximately 2,000 al-Shabaab fighters launch incursion into Ethiopia—group's largest operation outside Somalia.

  7. Biden Redeploys U.S. Forces to Somalia

    Policy

    President Biden reverses predecessor's withdrawal, redeploying roughly 400 troops to support counterterrorism operations.

  8. Trump Administration Orders Troop Withdrawal

    Policy

    President Trump orders withdrawal of approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia as part of broader drawdown.

  9. Mogadishu Truck Bombing Kills Over 500

    Attack

    A truck bomb explodes in Mogadishu's Hodan district, making it Somalia's deadliest terrorist attack. Al-Shabaab suspected but never claimed responsibility.

  10. Garissa University Massacre

    Attack

    Al-Shabaab fighters kill 148 people at Kenyan university, Kenya's second-deadliest attack in history.

  11. Westgate Mall Attack in Nairobi

    Attack

    Al-Shabaab gunmen storm upscale Kenyan mall, killing 67 people in four-day siege. Group cites Kenya's military presence in Somalia.

  12. Al-Shabaab Formally Merges with Al-Qaeda

    Statement

    Leader Ahmed Abdi Godane pledges allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, making al-Shabaab an official al-Qaeda affiliate.

  13. Ethiopia Invades Somalia, Topples Islamic Courts Union

    Military

    U.S.-backed Ethiopian forces oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab, its youth militia wing, breaks away and begins insurgency.

  14. Operation Enduring Freedom – Horn of Africa Launched

    Military

    U.S. establishes Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa at Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, to prevent terrorist regrouping after Afghanistan.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

December 2006 - January 2009

Ethiopia's Somalia Intervention (2006-2009)

Ethiopian forces, backed by the United States, invaded Somalia to oust the Islamic Courts Union, which had seized Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia. The ICU collapsed within weeks, but its youth militia—al-Shabaab—refused to surrender. Initially numbering around 400 fighters, al-Shabaab swelled to thousands as Somalis rallied against what they viewed as foreign occupation.

Then

Ethiopian forces captured major cities but faced persistent guerrilla attacks. Al-Shabaab emerged as the dominant insurgent faction by late 2008.

Now

The intervention radicalized al-Shabaab, transforming a contained youth militia into a full al-Qaeda affiliate that continues to control significant Somali territory two decades later.

Why this matters now

The 2006 intervention demonstrates how military campaigns against Somali Islamists can eliminate one threat while creating a more resilient successor—a pattern the current campaign may be repeating.

October 2011 - May 2013

Operation Linda Nchi and Jubaland's Creation (2011-2013)

Kenya launched Operation Linda Nchi ('Protect the Nation') to push al-Shabaab from the Somalia-Kenya border region after a series of kidnappings. Kenyan forces partnered with Ahmed Madobe's Ras Kamboni militia—defectors from al-Shabaab—and captured the strategic port city of Kismayu in September 2012. Kenya then backed the creation of Jubaland as a federal state with Madobe as president.

Then

Al-Shabaab lost its largest revenue source when Kismayu fell. The group retaliated with the 2013 Westgate mall attack in Nairobi.

Now

Jubaland became a buffer against al-Shabaab but also a source of constitutional conflict. Kenya's military integration into AMISOM formalized regional counterterrorism cooperation.

Why this matters now

The February 2026 Badhadhe operation occurred in the same region Kenyan and Jubaland forces liberated in 2011-2012, showing both the durability of those gains and al-Shabaab's continued presence in the area.

December 2020 - May 2022

U.S. Drawdown and Return (2020-2022)

President Trump ordered the withdrawal of approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia in December 2020, part of a broader 'endless wars' drawdown. Troops were repositioned to neighboring Kenya and Djibouti, commuting into Somalia for operations. President Biden reversed the withdrawal in May 2022, redeploying roughly 400 troops to support Somalia's new offensive.

Then

The withdrawal period saw no major shift in al-Shabaab's capabilities; U.S. strikes continued via 'over-the-horizon' operations.

Now

Biden's redeployment coincided with Somalia's most successful offensive in a decade, though the campaign subsequently stalled.

Why this matters now

The back-and-forth on troop levels illustrates how U.S. Somalia policy shifts with administrations. The current Trump administration's escalation—124 strikes in 2025—represents the third major posture change in five years.

Sources

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