1
Congress approves both housing decrees
Possible
Resolves by Oct 6, 2026
Discussed by: Government ministers Isabel Rodriguez and Monica Garcia; La Moncloa briefing
The Socialists and Sumar secure enough votes from smaller parties to pass both decrees on October 2. The eviction ban to 2030, vulture fund purchase restrictions, tax measures, and lease extensions take effect. Automatic contract renewal is also approved in the second decree. Rodriguez called on lawmakers for "vision and generosity" in the vote.
2
First decree passes, second fails
Likely
Resolves by Oct 6, 2026
Discussed by: Social Affairs Minister Pablo Bustinduy; Spain in English analysis
The automatic contract renewal provision is the 'final sticking point' and sits alone in the second decree, allowing lawmakers to reject it without sinking the broader housing package. Congress approves the first decree covering eviction protections, vulture fund restrictions, and tourist flat taxes, but rejects or forces heavy amendment of the second. This outcome would preserve the core protections while dropping the most contentious tenant-rights measure.
3
Decrees fail or stall in a divided Congress
Possible
Resolves by Oct 6, 2026
Discussed by: Junts per Catalunya and Podemos objections; University of Barcelona sociologist Marta Soler Gallart
If the minority coalition cannot secure the needed votes, the decrees fail or are sent back for renegotiation. Soler Gallart noted the measures do not address medium- and long-term supply problems and that extended tenancy agreements disadvantage small landlords. Political pressure over housing would likely continue regardless of the vote, keeping the issue alive into 2027.
4
First decree clears the Permanent Deputation
Likely
Resolves by Nov 15, 2026
Discussed by: Vote math in El Constitucional; the PNV's announced support
With the PNV backing the first decree, PSOE, Sumar, ERC, EH Bildu and Podemos reach 35 votes against 34, enough to validate it. The decree covers eviction protections to 2030, the brake on speculative purchases by funds and large holders, and the tourist-flat tax.
5
Second decree dies in the Permanent Deputation
Likely
Resolves by Nov 15, 2026
Discussed by: The PNV's rejection; El Constitucional vote count
The PNV voted against the second decree on automatic lease renewal, so the government lacks a majority to validate it. The government arranged for the decree to take effect only with validation, so a rejection means it fails.
6
Snap election reshapes Spain's housing agenda
Uncertain
Resolves by Dec 20, 2026
Discussed by: Sánchez's November 29 election call; a fragmented parliament
The new parliament elected November 29 could rewrite housing policy. If the decrees fail or pass in a reduced form, the balance of parties after the vote decides which tenant protections survive.