Trump’s 2025 national security strategy revives Monroe Doctrine and pivots U.S. power to the Americas
Force in Play
The Trump administration's Trump Corollary reshapes U.S. global posture through hemispheric dominance, culminating in the January 2026 military capture of Venezuela's president amid mounting legal scrutiny and international backlash.
The Trump administration's Trump Corollary reshapes U.S. global posture through hemispheric dominance, culminating in the January 2026 military capture of Venezuela's president amid mounting legal scrutiny and international backlash.
On December 5, 2025, the Trump administration released a 33‑page National Security Strategy (NSS) that formally revives a 19th‑century idea of the Western Hemisphere as a U.S. sphere of influence, declaring a Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine and promising to reassert American preeminence across the Americas. The document codifies a shift already visible in 2025 military operations: air and missile strikes on alleged drug‑trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that had killed at least 115 people in 35 strikes by year‑end, the designation of major cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and naval deployments around Venezuela. This campaign, formally named Operation Southern Spear on November 13, 2025, culminated on January 3, 2026, when U.S. forces launched Operation Absolute Resolve, a large‑scale military strike on Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, placing them in U.S. custody on narco‑terrorism charges—the first forcible regime change under the Trump Corollary.
The strategy also marks a sharp rhetorical and strategic break with decades of U.S. bipartisan foreign policy toward Europe, warning that European societies face civilizational erasure from migration, low birthrates, and speech restrictions, and suggesting that some NATO members may be unreliable U.S. allies within two decades. It explicitly signals U.S. support for nationalist and far‑right movements in Europe, calls for Europe to shoulder more of its own defense, and emphasizes de‑escalation with Russia and a more transactional stance toward China and Gulf monarchies. The NSS has triggered fierce backlash from European officials—with EU Council President António Costa condemning U.S. interference in Europe's political life—as well as from human‑rights advocates, many U.S. analysts, and members of Congress who have called the Venezuela operation illegal and demanded the release of classified boat‑strike videos amid war‑crimes allegations.
Length of the Trump administration's strategy document outlining flexible realism, the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, and a reordered global priority list.
115+
People killed in Operation Southern Spear by December 31, 2025
Estimated deaths from at least 35 U.S. strikes on alleged drug‑trafficking vessels and land targets in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific during Operation Southern Spear, the campaign the NSS presents as a model for the militarized Trump Corollary.
35+
Strikes on alleged narco targets through December 31, 2025
Number of U.S. strikes on suspected narco‑vessels and facilities in the Caribbean, eastern Pacific, and Venezuela between early September and year‑end 2025 under Operation Southern Spear.
150+
Aircraft used in Operation Absolute Resolve
Number of aircraft deployed in the January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, marking the first regime‑change operation under the Trump Corollary.
5%
NATO defense‑spending target pushed by Trump
Trump's demand that NATO allies spend 5 percent of GDP on defense, reflecting his expectation that Europe take over most conventional defense while the U.S. shifts to hemispheric priorities.
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People Involved
Donald Trump
President of the United States (Architect and signatory of the 2025 National Security Strategy)
Pete Hegseth
U.S. Secretary of Defense (often styled Secretary of War by the administration) (Chief executor and defender of militarized hemispheric and anti‑cartel operations)
Marco Rubio
U.S. Secretary of State (Diplomatic champion of militarized anti‑cartel policy and hemispheric doctrine)
J.D. Vance
Vice President of the United States (Key ideological voice on Europe and migration)
Johann Wadephul
German Foreign Minister (Prominent European critic of the NSS’s rhetoric on civilizational decline)
Volker Türk
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (Leading international critic of U.S. drug‑boat strikes)
Nicolás Maduro Moros
Former President of Venezuela (captured by U.S. forces) (In U.S. custody facing narco‑terrorism charges in New York)
António Costa
President of the European Council (Leading European critic of U.S. interference in European politics)
Rand Paul
U.S. Senator from Kentucky (Republican) (Leading congressional critic of boat strikes and Venezuela operation)
Tim Kaine
U.S. Senator from Virginia (Democrat) (Congressional critic of Venezuela operation as unauthorized war)
Organizations Involved
TR
Trump White House
Government Body
Status: Primary author of the 2025 National Security Strategy and driver of doctrinal shift
The Trump White House is the executive center of the U.S. federal government under President Donald Trump’s second term, responsible for issuing the 2025 National Security Strategy and overseeing its implementation.
U.
U.S. Department of Defense
Federal Department
Status: Implements hemispheric military posture and anti‑cartel strikes
The Department of Defense (DoD) directs U.S. military operations, including the naval deployment in the Caribbean and air and missile strikes on alleged narco‑trafficking vessels.
NO
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Military Alliance
Status: Defense ally under pressure to assume more responsibility amid U.S. pivot
NATO is the transatlantic military alliance linking the United States with European and Canadian allies, now under pressure to adapt to a U.S. focus on hemispheric security and higher European defense spending.
EU
European Union
Supranational Union
Status: Target of U.S. criticism and locus of political backlash
The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 member states that is criticized in the NSS for migration policies, regulatory approaches, and alleged speech restrictions.
UN
UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights
United Nations Agency
Status: Critic of U.S. anti‑cartel strikes and advocate for investigations
The UN human‑rights office monitors and reports on human‑rights compliance worldwide, including U.S. military operations.
VE
Venezuelan Government
National Government
Status: Decapitated by U.S. military operation; interim government under Vice President Delcy Rodríguez
The government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, led by the socialist United Socialist Party, was forcibly disrupted on January 3, 2026 when U.S. forces captured President Nicolás Maduro.
EU
European Council
Supranational governing body
Status: Leading institutional response to U.S. National Security Strategy
The European Council, composed of EU heads of state and government, defines the EU's overall political direction and priorities.
UN
United States Senate
Legislative Body
Status: Investigating legality of boat strikes and Venezuela operation
The upper chamber of the U.S. Congress, responsible for oversight of military operations and foreign policy.
Timeline
U.S. forces capture Venezuelan President Maduro in Operation Absolute Resolve
Military Action
In the largest hemispheric military operation since the Cuban Missile Crisis, more than 150 U.S. aircraft strike Caracas, and special operations forces seize President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their home at Fuerte Tiuna military complex. Maduro is transported via USS Iwo Jima and Guantanamo Bay to New York to face narco‑terrorism charges. Trump declares the U.S. will run Venezuela until a proper transition occurs, marking the first forcible regime change under the Trump Corollary.
Eight killed in strikes on five suspected narco boats as operation intensifies
Military Action
U.S. forces kill eight people in coordinated strikes on five suspected drug‑trafficking boats in SOUTHCOM area of operations, continuing the escalation of Operation Southern Spear in the final days before the Venezuela regime‑change operation.
CIA conducts first land strike inside Venezuela
Military Action
Trump announces the first U.S. strike on Venezuelan territory, a CIA drone attack on a marine facility allegedly used by the Tren de Aragua gang to load drug boats. The strike, likely carried out on December 24, causes no casualties but marks a significant escalation from maritime to land‑based targets and signals the imminent regime‑change operation.
U.S. imposes naval quarantine on Venezuelan oil exports
Military Posture
The United States enacts a naval blockade on sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela after imposing additional sanctions affecting oil trade, marking the first formal U.S. blockade in the Western Hemisphere since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and tightening the noose around the Maduro regime.
Hegseth tells Congress he is weighing release of boat‑strike video
Accountability
Following a classified December 9 briefing to congressional leaders, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tells lawmakers he is still studying whether to release full video of the September 2 double‑tap strike that killed survivors. Congress threatens to withhold a quarter of his travel budget if he refuses and includes video‑release demands in the annual defense authorization bill.
White House officially frames NSS as Trump's version of the Monroe Doctrine
Doctrinal Statement
In a briefing to congressional leadership, administration officials explicitly describe the 2025 National Security Strategy as Trump's version of the Monroe Doctrine, cementing the ideological and historical framing of the hemispheric pivot and foreshadowing the upcoming Venezuela operation.
EU leaders condemn NSS as interference in Europe's political life
Reaction
European Council President António Costa delivers a sharp rebuke to the U.S. National Security Strategy, stating that the U.S. cannot replace European citizens in deciding which are the right and wrong parties. A German government spokesperson dismisses parts of the NSS as ideology rather than strategy, highlighting a deepening transatlantic rift.
European backlash and Hegseth’s Reagan Forum speech crystallize new divide
Reaction
European leaders and former officials condemn the NSS language on civilizational erasure and its alignment with far‑right narratives, even as EU foreign‑policy chief Kaja Kallas insists the U.S. remains Europe’s biggest ally. At the Reagan National Defense Forum, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declares the Monroe Doctrine stronger than ever and defends the boat‑strike campaign as part of the Trump Corollary.
Trump administration releases 2025 National Security Strategy
Policy Document
The White House quietly posts a 33‑page NSS describing a strategy of flexible realism, reviving the Monroe Doctrine through a Trump Corollary, prioritizing Western Hemisphere dominance and Indo‑Pacific deterrence of China, and sharply criticizing Europe’s migration, speech, and climate policies while warning of civilizational erasure.
Lawmakers view classified video of second strike on boat survivors
Accountability
Military officials show members of Congress classified video of the controversial September 2 second strike, which depicts two shirtless men sitting atop a capsized boat before being targeted. An admiral testifies that everyone on the boat was on a target list of narco‑terrorists, but lawmakers express concern about potential war crimes and violations of the law of armed conflict.
Trump publicly ties Monroe Doctrine to his Trump Corollary
Doctrinal Statement
On the anniversary of the original Monroe Doctrine, Trump proclaims a Trump Corollary that reaffirms U.S. leadership in the Western Hemisphere and rejects foreign interference or control of strategic assets there, setting the conceptual stage for the NSS.
White House defends second strike on survivors amid war‑crimes concerns
Accountability
Following investigative reports that a second strike killed survivors of the September 2 boat attack, the White House and Pentagon insist the operation was self‑defense in an armed conflict with narco‑terrorists. UN officials and legal experts warn the strikes may constitute extrajudicial killings.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth officially designates the boat‑strike campaign and broader anti‑cartel operations as Operation Southern Spear, aimed at targeting narco‑terrorist organizations and disrupting illegal drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere. The formal naming signals an open‑ended military commitment under the Trump Corollary.
Reports reveal at least 22 strikes and 87 deaths in boat campaign
Investigation
Reporting by U.S. and international outlets confirms that the Trump administration has carried out at least 22 strikes on suspected narco‑boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing 87 people and prompting questions about evidence and legality.
U.S. expands boat strikes to eastern Pacific
Military Action
The U.S. military destroys two boats off Colombia in the eastern Pacific, killing five people, in the first publicly acknowledged extension of the anti‑drug boat campaign beyond the Caribbean.
Rubio says blowing up drug boats will deter traffickers
Public Statement
In Mexico City, Secretary of State Marco Rubio describes the Venezuelan boat strike as a deliberate shift from interdiction to destruction and warns that similar strikes will happen again, framing the campaign as a new war on drugs.
First U.S. airstrike sinks alleged Venezuelan drug boat
Military Action
U.S. forces strike and sink a small vessel in the Caribbean Sea, which the Trump administration says was carrying drugs from Venezuela; 11 people are killed. The next day Trump announces the strike, calling it a warning to narco‑terrorists.
U.S. deploys warships to Caribbean amid tensions with Venezuela
Military Posture
The U.S. sends Navy warships and forces to the Caribbean near Venezuela as part of a new operation against drug cartels and alleged narco‑terrorist groups, reviving Monroe Doctrine‑style rhetoric about U.S. dominance in the hemisphere.
NATO moves toward Trump’s 5 percent defense‑spending goal
Alliance Diplomacy
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte says most allies endorse Trump’s demand to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense, signaling that Europe is preparing to bear more of the conventional defense burden as the U.S. pivots attention to hemispheric priorities.
Trump administration designates major cartels as foreign terrorist organizations
Policy Decision
The State Department adds groups such as the Sinaloa Cartel and Tren de Aragua to the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list, enabling use of military force against them and laying legal groundwork for the later boat‑strike campaign highlighted in the NSS.
JD Vance warns Europe about migration and internal censorship at Munich
Public Statement
At the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance argues that Europe’s greatest dangers are mass immigration and erosion of democratic norms via censorship and suppression of populist voices, foreshadowing themes later codified in the NSS about civilizational decline and internal threats.
Scenarios
1
Full Implementation of the Trump Corollary and Enduring Hemispheric Militarization
Discussed by: Conservative think tanks such as the Center for Security Policy, Trump‑aligned commentators, and some U.S. strategic analysts
In this scenario, the Trump administration builds on the 2025 NSS to entrench a long‑term military and political architecture around the Trump Corollary. The U.S. maintains or expands naval deployments and airstrike campaigns across the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, further institutionalizes the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations, and pressures hemispheric governments to limit Chinese, Russian, and other extra‑regional involvement in ports, telecoms, and critical infrastructure. Trade, aid, and security partnerships are conditioned on aligning with U.S. preferences and keeping out rival influence. Europe reluctantly adapts by increasing defense spending and focusing on its own neighborhood while ties with Washington become more transactional. This trajectory is seen as possible if domestic support for hardline anti‑drug and anti‑migration measures holds and Congress does not substantially constrain executive war‑making authority.
2
Legal and Political Backlash Forces Narrowing of the Boat‑Strike Campaign
Discussed by: Human‑rights organizations, legal scholars, some U.S. media investigations, and UN officials
Here, investigations into the September 2 double‑tap strike and later operations conclude that elements of the boat‑strike campaign are inconsistent with U.S. and international law, especially strikes on incapacitated survivors. Domestic litigation, congressional inquiries, and international pressure from the UN human‑rights system and regional governments force the administration to curb or end direct lethal strikes while preserving the broader Trump Corollary rhetoric. The NSS remains in place but operational policy shifts toward enhanced interdiction, intelligence cooperation, and covert or partner‑led actions instead of overt U.S. strikes. This outcome becomes more likely if graphic evidence of operations is released, bipartisan concern in Congress grows, or a major incident involving civilians triggers public outrage.
3
Transatlantic Partial Decoupling and European Push for Strategic Autonomy
Discussed by: European media and officials, Atlantic Council and other transatlantic policy experts
In this scenario, the NSS marks the beginning of a structural divergence between U.S. and European strategic cultures. European governments respond to U.S. criticism and pro‑far‑right positioning by accelerating plans for European strategic autonomy, investing more in EU‑level defense initiatives, and hedging between Washington and other partners. NATO persists but increasingly resembles a framework in which the U.S. provides nuclear and some high‑end capabilities while European states organize the bulk of conventional deterrence and crisis management. Political friction grows over issues such as digital regulation, climate policy, and relations with Russia and China. However, shared interests in deterring Russian aggression and managing global shocks keep the relationship from fully breaking. This scenario gains ground if future U.S. policy documents and actions continue to question Europe’s reliability and promote nationalist movements inside EU states.
4
Major Hemispheric Crisis Tests Limits of the Trump Corollary
Discussed by: Regional analysts, Latin American media, and some U.S. security commentators
This scenario envisions a sharp escalation, such as a confrontation with Venezuela over regime change, a clash with Chinese or Russian naval units near strategic ports, or a high‑casualty incident involving a U.S. strike on a civilian vessel. The Trump Corollary’s commitment to deny extra‑regional powers any military foothold could push the U.S. into a crisis with a great power or spark widespread anti‑American sentiment in Latin America. Regional organizations or the UN Security Council might take up the issue, challenging the legality of U.S. actions. Depending on how Washington responds, the episode could either entrench the doctrine, if seen domestically as successful and necessary, or provoke a policy rethink if costs and diplomatic isolation grow too high.
5
Policy Moderation or Reversal After Domestic Political Shift
Discussed by: U.S. domestic political analysts and centrist foreign‑policy commentators
Over a longer horizon, electoral outcomes or intra‑Republican debates could produce a moderated or reversed version of the Trump Corollary. A future administration, or a coalition within the current one, might retain some hemispheric focus and skepticism of overextension but tone down ideological attacks on Europe, revert to law‑enforcement‑driven anti‑drug strategies, and reemphasize multilateral cooperation and human rights. This would resemble previous cycles in U.S. foreign policy where maximalist doctrines such as the Bush Doctrine of preventive war were later constrained or partially rolled back. Such a shift would depend on public fatigue with confrontational policies, legal setbacks, or clear evidence that aggressive tactics have not delivered promised reductions in migration or drug flows.
6
Venezuela Regime Change Triggers Regional Coalition Against U.S. Intervention
Discussed by: Latin American foreign ministries, Brazil and Mexico government officials, regional integration organizations
Following Maduro's capture, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and other regional powers condemn the operation as a violation of sovereignty and invoke the principle of non‑intervention enshrined in the Rio Treaty and OAS Charter. They coordinate diplomatic and potentially economic responses, refuse to recognize any U.S.‑installed Venezuelan government, and accelerate efforts toward regional defense cooperation independent of U.S. influence. The backlash transforms the Trump Corollary from a unilateral assertion into a catalyst for Latin American strategic autonomy, reminiscent of the 2002 pushback against the Iraq invasion. This scenario becomes more likely if Venezuelan resistance to U.S. occupation emerges or if civilian casualties mount during the transition period.
7
Congressional War Powers Challenge Forces Rollback of Military Operations
Discussed by: Senate critics including Rand Paul and Tim Kaine, House progressives, constitutional scholars
Members of Congress from both parties challenge the Venezuela operation and broader Operation Southern Spear as unauthorized uses of military force, invoking the War Powers Resolution and introducing legislation to cut funding. Graphic video evidence from boat strikes galvanizes public opposition, and federal courts hear challenges to the legal basis for treating cartels as terrorist organizations subject to military targeting. Faced with the prospect of funding cutoffs and unfavorable court rulings, the administration is forced to scale back kinetic operations, revert to traditional law‑enforcement approaches with judicial oversight, and negotiate Maduro's return to Venezuela or exile in a third country. This outcome depends on bipartisan congressional unity and public backlash to civilian casualties or failed nation‑building in Venezuela.
8
Maduro Conviction Legitimizes Expanded Hemispheric Military Doctrine
Discussed by: Trump administration officials, conservative national‑security commentators, supporters of the Trump Corollary
Nicolás Maduro is convicted in U.S. federal court on narco‑terrorism charges, validating the administration's framing of Venezuelan leadership as a criminal narco‑state. A transition government in Caracas quickly stabilizes with U.S. backing, and regional governments grudgingly accept the new reality while securing commitments on oil exports and migration. Public opinion in the U.S. remains supportive, framing the operation as decisive action against drugs and authoritarianism. Emboldened, the administration applies the Trump Corollary model to other targets such as Nicaragua or Cuba, expanding military operations under the theory that criminal governance justifies regime change. This scenario requires a relatively smooth Venezuela transition with limited casualties and suppression of armed resistance.
Historical Context
The Original Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary
1823–early 20th century
What Happened
In 1823, President James Monroe declared that European powers should no longer colonize or interfere in the Americas, framing the Western Hemisphere as a distinct sphere where U.S. interests would be paramount. Over time, especially under Theodore Roosevelt’s 1904 Roosevelt Corollary, the doctrine evolved into a justification for U.S. interventions in Latin America to stabilize finances, protect American investments, and preempt European involvement. Roosevelt claimed a right of intervention in cases of chronic wrongdoing or impotence by Latin American governments, leading to repeated U.S. occupations, protectorates, and regime‑change operations in the Caribbean and Central America.
Outcome
Short Term
The doctrine initially deterred formal European recolonization and allowed the U.S. to assert diplomatic primacy in the hemisphere, but the Roosevelt Corollary translated this into frequent armed interventions that bred deep resentment across Latin America.
Long Term
By the mid‑20th century, the U.S. gradually shifted away from overt occupations toward more multilateral and legalistic frameworks, though the Monroe Doctrine’s logic persisted in episodes such as the Cuban Missile Crisis. The doctrine became controversial, seen by many in the region as a symbol of imperial overreach rather than mutual security.
Why It's Relevant Today
The Trump Corollary explicitly builds on Monroe and Roosevelt’s logic by reasserting a hemispheric sphere of influence and promising to deny non‑hemispheric rivals and unwanted actors any foothold. The historical record shows that such doctrines tend to expand from declaratory policy into repeated interventions with significant blowback, offering a cautionary lens on how today’s strategy might evolve and be perceived in Latin America.
U.S. Interventions in Grenada and Panama
1983 and 1989
What Happened
In 1983, the U.S. invaded Grenada (Operation Urgent Fury) to overthrow a Marxist government and protect American medical students, citing regional stability and the presence of Cuban forces. In 1989, the U.S. invaded Panama (Operation Just Cause) to depose military leader Manuel Noriega, justified by drug‑trafficking charges, protection of U.S. nationals, and defense of the Panama Canal. Both operations were short, decisive, and largely unilateral, relying on the implicit claim that U.S. security and regional order entitled Washington to intervene militarily in its near abroad.
Outcome
Short Term
Both interventions quickly achieved their immediate objectives and faced limited military resistance, bolstering perceptions of U.S. power and resolve in the hemisphere.
Long Term
They also entrenched skepticism about U.S. respect for sovereignty and legal norms, and became precedents cited by critics as examples of Washington using security rationales, including drugs, to justify regime change. Over time, they contributed to debates about the limits of unilateral intervention and the need to anchor actions in international law.
Why It's Relevant Today
Current U.S. boat strikes and the Trump Corollary’s focus on narco‑terrorism and hemispheric control echo justifications used in Panama and other interventions. The historical pattern suggests that operations launched around narrow security goals can drift toward broader political aims, such as regime change in Venezuela, and that even seemingly successful interventions can generate long‑term legitimacy costs.
George W. Bush’s 2002 National Security Strategy and the Bush Doctrine
2002–2008
What Happened
Following the 9/11 attacks, the 2002 U.S. National Security Strategy articulated the Bush Doctrine, which asserted a right to preemptive or preventive military action against emerging threats, particularly terrorists and states seeking weapons of mass destruction. This doctrine underpinned the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and a broader global war on terror that relied on expansive executive authority, targeted killings, and controversial legal interpretations of armed conflict with non‑state actors.
Outcome
Short Term
The strategy initially commanded substantial domestic support and enabled rapid military campaigns, but the Iraq war soon became protracted and costly, and controversies over torture, surveillance, and targeted killings eroded U.S. credibility.
Long Term
Over time, both domestic and international pushback forced constraints on the most aggressive applications of the doctrine, even as some tools, such as drone strikes, remained embedded in U.S. practice. Later administrations partially walked back preemptive rhetoric while retaining global counter‑terrorism capabilities.
Why It's Relevant Today
The Trump NSS similarly expands the conceptual scope of armed conflict to include narco‑terrorist cartels and leverages that framing to justify lethal strikes far from traditional battlefields. The Bush era shows how a doctrine that initially seems politically potent can trigger legal, humanitarian, and strategic backlash that narrows its application, suggesting that the Trump Corollary may face similar pressures over time.
