Logo
Daily Brief
Following
Trump's Greenland Gambit

Trump's Greenland Gambit

A U.S. president appoints an envoy to acquire another NATO ally's territory

Overview

President Trump appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as U.S. Special Envoy to Greenland with an explicit mission: make the island American territory. Denmark, a NATO ally that has governed Greenland for three centuries, summoned the U.S. ambassador and called the move "completely unacceptable." Trump won't rule out using military force.

This isn't diplomatic theater. Greenland holds 39 of 50 minerals critical to U.S. national security, hosts America's northernmost early-warning radar base, and sits astride emerging Arctic shipping routes where China and Russia are expanding influence. Trump has pursued this since 2017. The difference now: he's creating government positions to make it happen.

Key Indicators

56,000
Greenland's population
Fewer people than a mid-sized American suburb, spread across the world's largest island
$511M
Annual Danish subsidy to Greenland
Represents 20% of Greenland's GDP and over half its public budget
39 of 50
Critical minerals in Greenland
Including rare earths China currently dominates globally
80%
Greenland covered by ice
Climate change is opening access to previously unreachable resources

People Involved

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States (2025-present, 2017-2021) (Pursuing U.S. acquisition of Greenland, refuses to rule out military force)
Jeff Landry
Jeff Landry
Louisiana Governor, U.S. Special Envoy to Greenland (Newly appointed envoy, describing role as volunteer position to acquire Greenland)
Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Danish Foreign Minister (Leading Denmark's diplomatic response, summoned U.S. ambassador)
Múte Egede
Múte Egede
Premier of Greenland (Rejecting U.S. acquisition while pursuing independence from Denmark)
Mette Frederiksen
Mette Frederiksen
Prime Minister of Denmark (Defending territorial integrity against NATO ally)

Organizations Involved

Kingdom of Denmark
Kingdom of Denmark
Constitutional monarchy comprising Denmark, Greenland, and Faroe Islands
Status: Defending territorial integrity while respecting Greenland's autonomy

NATO member since 1949, facing unprecedented territorial pressure from military ally.

Government of Greenland (Naalakkersuisut)
Government of Greenland (Naalakkersuisut)
Autonomous government within Kingdom of Denmark
Status: Pursuing independence while rejecting U.S. acquisition

Autonomous government of 56,000 people controlling world's largest island and critical Arctic resources.

Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base)
Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base)
U.S. military installation
Status: Strategic early-warning and space surveillance facility

America's northernmost military base, critical to missile defense and nuclear early warning.

Timeline

  1. EU Backs Denmark's Territorial Integrity

    Diplomatic

    EU spokesperson and French President Macron pledge support for Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland.

  2. Denmark Summons U.S. Ambassador

    Diplomatic

    Danish FM Lars Løkke Rasmussen calls envoy appointment unacceptable, summons U.S. ambassador Ken Howery.

  3. Greenland: 'Greenland Belongs to Greenlanders'

    Statement

    Greenland PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen immediately rejects envoy appointment and reaffirms Greenlandic sovereignty.

  4. Trump Appoints Louisiana Governor as Greenland Envoy

    Political

    Jeff Landry appointed Special Envoy to Greenland with mission to "make Greenland part of the U.S."

  5. Donald Trump Jr. Visits Greenland

    Political

    Trump's son makes 4-5 hour "tourist" visit to Nuuk on Trump Force One, no government meetings.

  6. Trump Refuses to Rule Out Military Force

    Political

    At press conference, Trump won't exclude military or economic coercion to acquire Greenland.

  7. Greenland Premier Calls for Independence

    Political

    Múte Egede's New Year speech urges breaking "shackles of colonial era," accelerated by Trump's pressure.

  8. Denmark Announces Greenland Defense Buildup

    Military

    Denmark pledges €1.3 billion for Greenland defense: patrol ships, drones, F-35-capable airports.

  9. Trump Declares Greenland 'Absolute Necessity'

    Political

    Trump posts to Truth Social that U.S. "ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity" for national security.

  10. Trump Cancels Denmark State Visit

    Diplomatic

    Trump cancels planned Copenhagen visit in retaliation for Denmark's rejection of purchase proposal.

  11. Denmark Rejects: 'Greenland Is Not For Sale'

    Diplomatic

    Danish PM Mette Frederiksen calls Trump's purchase idea "absurd," triggering first diplomatic crisis.

  12. Wall Street Journal Reveals Purchase Interest

    Media

    WSJ reports Trump's interest in buying Greenland, making the previously private discussions public.

  13. White House Greenland Resources Briefing

    Political

    Australian geologist Greg Barnes briefs 20 Trump administration officials on Greenland's rare earth minerals.

  14. Trump First Discusses Greenland Acquisition

    Political

    Billionaire Ron Lauder suggests purchasing Greenland to Trump, who begins discussing the idea with senior advisers including Senator Tom Cotton.

Scenarios

1

Greenland Declares Independence, Negotiates U.S. Partnership

Discussed by: The Hill, Foreign Policy, Bloomberg analysts covering Arctic geopolitics

Greenland leverages Trump's pressure to accelerate independence from Denmark, then negotiates favorable terms with Washington: expanded Pituffik Base access, rare earth mining partnerships, infrastructure investment, and defense guarantees in exchange for maintaining sovereignty. This gives Trump a partial win he can claim as historic while respecting international law. Greenland gains economic viability without Danish subsidies. Risk: China and Russia view this as NATO expansion and increase Arctic militarization.

2

Diplomatic Stalemate, Status Quo Persists

Discussed by: CSIS, European security analysts, Danish government officials

Denmark and Greenland maintain firm rejection. EU allies continue backing Danish territorial integrity. Trump's envoy produces no tangible progress beyond symbolic meetings. U.S. continues operating Pituffik Base under existing agreements. The episode damages U.S.-Denmark relations and creates lasting NATO tensions, but produces no territorial change. Landry's "volunteer" envoy role fades into irrelevance as Trump moves to other priorities. Greenland's independence movement continues at its own pace, unaffected by U.S. pressure.

3

NATO Crisis: Military Coercion or Economic Warfare

Discussed by: Military analysts, Al Jazeera reporting, international law scholars

Trump escalates beyond diplomacy. Options include: economic sanctions on Denmark, military "exercises" near Greenland, blocking Danish access to U.S. intelligence, or direct military intervention. This triggers unprecedented NATO Article 4 consultations about territorial integrity threats from a member state. EU imposes counter-sanctions. The alliance fractures. China and Russia exploit the chaos to advance Arctic claims. This scenario risks destabilizing the entire post-WWII security architecture over an island most Americans couldn't locate on a map.

4

Greenland Remains Danish, Increases U.S. Cooperation

Discussed by: Foreign Policy, National Geographic, Arctic security researchers

Denmark and Greenland defuse tensions by offering expanded U.S. cooperation without sovereignty transfer: additional U.S. military installations, rare earth mining access for American companies, joint Arctic patrols, and priority for U.S. investment in Greenland infrastructure. Trump claims victory in securing American interests. Denmark maintains sovereignty while strengthening defense relationship. Greenland gets infrastructure investment it needs for eventual independence. Everyone saves face, but the episode reveals how easily territorial ambitions can destabilize alliances.

Historical Context

Alaska Purchase (1867)

1867

What Happened

Secretary of State William Seward negotiated the purchase of Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million, dubbed "Seward's Folly" by critics who considered it worthless frozen land. Russia sold because it couldn't defend the territory and needed cash after the Crimean War. The 586,000-square-mile acquisition doubled U.S. territory.

Outcome

Short term: Widely mocked as wasteful spending on a frozen wasteland with no strategic value

Long term: Proved invaluable for gold deposits, oil reserves, fisheries, and Cold War strategic positioning; Alaska achieved statehood in 1959

Why It's Relevant

Trump explicitly cites Alaska as precedent, but key differences: Russia wanted to sell, no indigenous government opposed it, and it didn't involve pressuring a military ally.

U.S. Virgin Islands Purchase (1917)

1917

What Happened

After decades of negotiations, the U.S. purchased the Danish West Indies (now U.S. Virgin Islands) for $25 million in gold during World War I. Denmark faced economic struggles and the U.S. sought Caribbean strategic positioning. The islands became an unincorporated U.S. territory.

Outcome

Short term: Strengthened U.S. Caribbean presence during WWI, provided naval bases

Long term: Became a U.S. territory with Commonwealth status; major tourism destination but residents lack presidential voting rights

Why It's Relevant

The last time the U.S. successfully purchased territory from Denmark, though under vastly different circumstances: Denmark initiated the sale, no NATO alliance existed, and colonial-era attitudes toward territorial transfer were accepted.

Crimea Annexation (2014)

2014

What Happened

Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine through military occupation, citing historical ties and protecting Russian speakers. The "little green men" operation used unmarked troops to take control before a disputed referendum showed 95% support for joining Russia. The international community largely rejected the annexation as illegal.

Outcome

Short term: Russia secured strategic Black Sea naval access; Ukraine lost 10,000 square miles; Western sanctions imposed

Long term: Frozen conflict continues; annexation unrecognized internationally; precedent for territorial revision by force; contributed to full-scale 2022 invasion

Why It's Relevant

What Trump's critics fear: a major power seizing territory from a smaller neighbor through coercion. Key difference: Ukraine wasn't a NATO ally. Greenland scenario tests whether alliance obligations mean anything when the aggressor is the alliance leader.