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Transatlantic Alliance Under Strain

Transatlantic Alliance Under Strain

Rule Changes
By Newzino Staff |

Europe Confronts a Changed Relationship with Washington

February 13th, 2026: 62nd Munich Security Conference Opens

Overview

For seventy-five years, the transatlantic alliance operated on a simple premise: America leads, Europe follows, and collective defense binds them together. That arrangement is now being renegotiated in real time. At the 62nd Munich Security Conference opening February 13, 2026, European leaders are gathering not to coordinate with Washington but to assess how much they can still count on it.

Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration has suspended military aid to Ukraine, threatened tariffs on allies over Greenland, and demanded NATO members spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense—more than double the previous target. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's message to Munich: 'The old world is gone.' European capitals are now debating something once unthinkable: a continent that defends itself.

Key Indicators

5%
NATO defense spending target
New GDP commitment agreed at The Hague summit, up from 2%
€381B
EU defense spending (2025)
Up 11% from previous year, 63% higher than 2020
8 days
US aid suspension to Ukraine
Weapons and intelligence cut off March 3-11, 2025
60+
Heads of state at Munich
Largest attendance in conference history

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People Involved

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
United States Secretary of State (Leading US delegation at Munich Security Conference)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Ukraine (Pressing for progress on peace negotiations amid US deadline)
Friedrich Merz
Friedrich Merz
Chancellor of Germany (Opening Munich Security Conference with keynote address)
Mette Frederiksen
Mette Frederiksen
Prime Minister of Denmark (Managing Greenland sovereignty crisis with US)

Organizations Involved

Munich Security Conference
Munich Security Conference
Annual Security Forum
Status: Hosting 62nd annual gathering February 13-15, 2026

The world's leading forum on international security policy, convening heads of state, defense ministers, and security experts annually since 1963.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Military alliance
Status: Implementing new 5% GDP defense spending target by 2035

The 32-member military alliance binding North America and Europe in collective defense.

Timeline

  1. 62nd Munich Security Conference Opens

    Conference

    World leaders convene at Hotel Bayerischer Hof with transatlantic relations and Ukraine peace efforts dominating agenda. Rubio leads US delegation; Zelenskyy to receive Ewald von Kleist Award.

  2. Zelenskyy Reveals US June Deadline

    Diplomatic

    Ukrainian president discloses that US has given Ukraine and Russia until June to reach peace agreement.

  3. Ukraine-Russia Prisoner Exchange

    Diplomatic

    Ukraine and Russia each release 157 prisoners of war in exchange facilitated by US mediation.

  4. Trump Reverses Greenland Tariff Threat

    Economic

    At Davos, Trump announces 'framework' agreement with NATO chief Mark Rutte and withdraws tariff threats against European allies.

  5. Trump Threatens Tariffs Over Greenland

    Economic

    Trump announces 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, and Finland until Greenland deal reached.

  6. Denmark, Greenland Reject US Acquisition Demands

    Diplomatic

    Prime ministers of Denmark and Greenland issue joint statement declaring Greenland 'not under any circumstances for sale' and accusing US of 'unacceptable pressure.'

  7. NATO Agrees to 5% Defense Target

    Defense

    At The Hague Summit, 31 of 32 NATO members commit to spending 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Spain receives exemption.

  8. US Resumes Ukraine Aid

    Military

    After Ukraine signals openness to 30-day ceasefire, US resumes weapons and intelligence sharing.

  9. Intelligence Sharing to Ukraine Cut

    Military

    Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe suspends intelligence sharing with Ukraine and orders allied nations to limit information to Kyiv.

  10. US Suspends Military Aid to Ukraine

    Military

    Trump administration halts all weapons transfers to Ukraine following Oval Office confrontation.

  11. Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office Confrontation

    Diplomatic

    White House meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy ends in public shouting match. Minerals agreement signing and press conference cancelled. Zelenskyy asked to leave.

  12. Rubio Confirmed as Secretary of State

    Political

    Senate unanimously confirms Marco Rubio as 72nd Secretary of State.

  13. Trump Inaugurated for Second Term

    Political

    Donald Trump begins second presidential term with 'America First' foreign policy agenda, signaling major shifts in US approach to alliances.

Scenarios

1

Transatlantic Bargain Renegotiated, Alliance Holds

Discussed by: Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, NATO officials

European allies meet the 5% GDP defense target (or make credible progress toward it), satisfying US demands. Washington maintains security commitments while Europe assumes greater burden-sharing. NATO remains intact but with a more balanced power distribution. This outcome requires European capitals to sustain historically high defense budgets through multiple election cycles and the US to accept gradual rather than immediate compliance.

2

European Strategic Autonomy Accelerates

Discussed by: European Council on Foreign Relations, French and German government officials, Munich Security Report analysts

Continued US unpredictability drives European capitals toward independent defense capabilities, including serious discussions of a European nuclear deterrent. France and the UK deepen nuclear cooperation under the Northwood Declaration framework. Germany's massive rearmament creates the foundation for a European pillar that operates semi-independently of US command structures. NATO persists formally but European decision-making increasingly occurs outside it.

3

Alliance Fractures Along National Lines

Discussed by: Heritage Foundation, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), European Conservative commentators

Unable to agree on burden-sharing or strategic priorities, NATO fragments into competing camps. Eastern European states cling to US bilateral relationships while Western Europeans pursue accommodation with Russia. No coherent European defense emerges. This scenario becomes more likely if the Ukraine war ends ambiguously, removing the unifying threat, or if US demands escalate beyond what European economies can sustain.

4

Ukraine Deal Resets Transatlantic Dynamics

Discussed by: US State Department, Ukrainian government officials, Kyiv Independent analysts

A negotiated end to the Ukraine war by the US-set June deadline allows both Washington and European capitals to declare success. The US claims credit for ending the conflict; Europe claims credit for supporting Ukraine. With the immediate crisis resolved, transatlantic relations stabilize around a new equilibrium—though fundamental questions about the alliance's future remain unresolved.

Historical Context

Suez Crisis (1956)

October-November 1956

What Happened

When Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, Britain and France launched a military operation to retake it—without consulting Washington. The Eisenhower administration publicly condemned its own allies at the United Nations and threatened economic retaliation, forcing a humiliating withdrawal. British Prime Minister Anthony Eden resigned within months.

Outcome

Short Term

Britain and France withdrew from Egypt. The US demonstrated it would not automatically support allied military adventures.

Long Term

Britain concluded it must never act without US support; France concluded it must never depend on the US. These divergent lessons shaped European security policy for decades.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Suez Crisis showed that American support cannot be assumed even by close allies. Today's European leaders face a similar reckoning: can they rely on Washington, or must they develop independent capabilities?

France Withdraws from NATO Military Command (1966)

February-July 1966

What Happened

President Charles de Gaulle announced France would leave NATO's integrated military command structure, demanding that all foreign troops leave French soil. NATO headquarters relocated from Paris to Brussels. De Gaulle sought strategic autonomy through France's independent nuclear deterrent, arguing that no nation should depend on another for its ultimate security.

Outcome

Short Term

14,000 US military personnel left France. NATO command structures moved to Belgium.

Long Term

France maintained alliance membership while pursuing independent nuclear capability. Secret arrangements preserved wartime cooperation. France fully rejoined the military command in 2009.

Why It's Relevant Today

De Gaulle's partial withdrawal demonstrated that alliance participation and strategic autonomy need not be mutually exclusive. Current European discussions of independent defense capabilities echo his logic.

Putin's Munich Speech (2007)

February 2007

What Happened

At the 43rd Munich Security Conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered the sharpest criticism of US foreign policy by a post-Soviet Russian leader. He denounced the 'unipolar world' dominated by Washington, warned against NATO expansion, and accused the US of destabilizing the international order. Western officials in the audience appeared stunned.

Outcome

Short Term

The speech signaled a harder Russian line but produced no immediate policy changes.

Long Term

Analysts later identified the speech as a turning point—the moment Russia signaled it would actively resist the post-Cold War order. The 2008 Georgia war and 2014 Crimea annexation followed this logic.

Why It's Relevant Today

Putin used Munich to announce that Russia would no longer accept subordinate status in international affairs. In 2026, the conference hosts a different kind of reckoning—this time about whether America will continue leading the order it built.

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