Pull to refresh
Logo
Daily Brief
Following Why
Operation Southern Spear: Trump's undeclared war in the Caribbean

Operation Southern Spear: Trump's undeclared war in the Caribbean

Force in Play
By Newzino Staff | |

From maritime interdiction to land strikes—how a drug war became regime change

December 30th, 2025: First Land Strike Inside Venezuela

Overview

The CIA just struck Venezuelan soil. On December 30, President Trump confirmed the first known U.S. land attack inside Venezuela—a drone strike on a coastal dock allegedly used by the Tren de Aragua gang to load drug boats. No one was there when the missiles hit. Meanwhile, in the Pacific that same day, a U.S. strike on another boat killed two more people, bringing total deaths to at least 107 since September.

What began as maritime drug interdiction has morphed into something bigger. Trump has designated Venezuela's government a terrorist organization, imposed a naval blockade on oil tankers, authorized CIA lethal operations, and deployed 15,000 troops to the Caribbean—the largest military buildup in the region since the 1994 Haiti intervention. Congressional investigators are probing whether killing shipwrecked survivors constitutes war crimes. The UN calls it illegal armed aggression. And despite Trump's drug war rhetoric, experts say the real objective looks like regime change.

Key Indicators

107+
People killed in strikes
Deaths from 30 boat and land strikes since September 2
30
Total strikes
Attacks in Caribbean and Eastern Pacific waters, plus Venezuela land strike
15,000
U.S. troops deployed
Largest Caribbean buildup since 1994 Haiti operation
$25M
Bounty on Maduro
State Department reward for information leading to his arrest

Interactive

Exploring all sides of a story is often best achieved with Play.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Sign Up

Debate Arena

Two rounds, two personas, one winner. You set the crossfire.

People Involved

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States (Authorized Operation Southern Spear and CIA covert operations in Venezuela)
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
Secretary of Defense (Under congressional investigation for alleged 'kill all' order on September 2 strike)
Nicolás Maduro Moros
Nicolás Maduro Moros
President of Venezuela (Indicted by U.S. for narcoterrorism, $25 million bounty)
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State (Leading diplomatic push for regime change in Venezuela)
Admiral Frank M. 'Mitch' Bradley
Admiral Frank M. 'Mitch' Bradley
Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command (Ordered controversial second strike killing shipwrecked survivors)
Edmundo González Urrutia
Edmundo González Urrutia
Venezuelan Opposition Leader (Recognized by U.S. as Venezuela's 'rightful president,' living in exile in Spain)

Organizations Involved

Tren de Aragua
Tren de Aragua
Transnational Criminal Organization
Status: Designated Foreign Terrorist Organization by U.S., primary target of strikes

Venezuela's most powerful transnational gang, born inside Tocorón prison and now operating across Latin America and the United States.

Central Intelligence Agency
Central Intelligence Agency
U.S. Intelligence Agency
Status: Authorized for lethal operations in Venezuela and Caribbean

Authorized by Trump in October 2025 to conduct lethal covert operations inside Venezuela—broadening CIA role beyond intelligence gathering.

U.S. Southern Command
U.S. Southern Command
U.S. Military Combatant Command
Status: Leading Operation Southern Spear with 15,000 deployed personnel

Responsible for U.S. military operations in Central and South America and the Caribbean.

Senate Armed Services Committee
Senate Armed Services Committee
Congressional Committee
Status: Conducting bipartisan investigation into boat strikes

Leading congressional oversight of military operations with focus on potential war crimes.

Timeline

  1. First Land Strike Inside Venezuela

    Military

    CIA drone destroys coastal dock used by Tren de Aragua; no casualties. Pacific strike kills two, bringing total deaths to 107.

  2. Maduro Claims Record Drug Plane Shootdowns

    Political

    Maduro announces Venezuelan forces shot down 9 foreign drug-trafficking aircraft in 24 hours—highest single-day total—bringing 2025 total to 39. Uses counter-narrative to deflect U.S. accusations.

  3. UN Experts Condemn Blockade as Illegal

    International

    Four UN human rights experts declare blockade illegal armed aggression, warn strikes may violate international law.

  4. CIA Drone Strike on Venezuelan Dock (Christmas Eve)

    Military

    CIA conducts drone strike on remote Tren de Aragua drug loading dock on Venezuelan coast between December 24-25. No casualties as facility was empty. Trump reveals strike publicly on December 26.

  5. Venezuela Designated Terrorist Organization

    Political

    Trump designates entire Maduro government as Foreign Terrorist Organization, orders naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers.

  6. Trump Pardons Convicted Drug Trafficker

    Political

    President pardons former Honduran President Hernández, serving 45 years for trafficking 400 tons of cocaine.

  7. Congress Opens Bipartisan Investigation

    Investigation

    Senate and House Armed Services Committees launch probes into alleged 'kill all' order and survivor killings.

  8. Hegseth Names 'Operation Southern Spear'

    Military

    Defense Secretary formally announces operation after 20th strike, describing mission to 'remove narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere.'

  9. USS Gerald R. Ford Arrives Caribbean

    Military

    Largest aircraft carrier joins operation, bringing total U.S. personnel in region to 15,000.

  10. Trump Confirms CIA Covert Operations

    Intelligence

    President publicly acknowledges authorizing CIA lethal operations in Venezuela—extraordinary disclosure for sitting president.

  11. First Boat Strike Kills 11 in Caribbean

    Military

    Navy strikes boat from Venezuela in four attacks, including controversial second strike killing shipwrecked survivors.

  12. U.S. Begins Major Caribbean Buildup

    Military

    USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group deploys to Caribbean, positioning 120 miles from Venezuelan coast.

  13. Maduro Annuls Presidential Election

    Political

    Maduro nullifies election results showing opposition victory; opposition claims Edmundo González won decisively.

  14. DOJ Indicts Maduro for Narcoterrorism

    Legal

    U.S. unseals indictment charging Maduro and 14 officials with leading 'Cartel de los Soles,' trafficking cocaine, and weapons offenses.

Scenarios

1

Maduro Falls, Venezuela Descends Into Chaos

Discussed by: CNN security analysts, Council on Foreign Relations experts

Trump achieves regime change through sustained military pressure, blockade, and internal collapse. But unlike Panama 1989, no organized opposition controls territory or institutions. Multiple armed groups—military factions, Tren de Aragua, Colombian guerrillas, rival cartels—vie for power. U.S. faces open-ended military commitment to stabilize a failed state, with troops potentially staying for years. Drug trafficking explodes as rival groups fight for control of trafficking routes. Venezuelan refugees surge into Colombia and Brazil.

2

Strikes Ruled War Crimes, Operation Collapses

Discussed by: Congressional investigators, international law experts, UN human rights officials

Bipartisan congressional investigation concludes the September 2 survivor killings violated laws of war. International Criminal Court opens preliminary examination. Allied Latin American governments withdraw support for regime change efforts. Trump faces choice between abandoning the operation or doubling down despite international isolation. Military leaders become reluctant to execute further strikes fearing personal legal liability. Operation stalls but blockade continues, hardening Maduro's position domestically.

3

Maduro Negotiates Exit, Controlled Transition

Discussed by: U.S. State Department officials (background), regional diplomats

Facing economic strangulation from the oil blockade and military pressure, Maduro accepts exile deal guaranteeing no extradition to face U.S. drug charges. Edmundo González returns from Spain to lead transitional government backed by Venezuelan military factions that flip after U.S. guarantees. Controlled transition avoids chaos but requires U.S. accepting some Maduro allies remaining in power structures. Drug trafficking continues under new management. Resembles successful Panama operation outcome but on longer timeline.

4

Stalemate: Maduro Survives, Strikes Continue

Discussed by: Washington Post reporting, Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis

Maduro refuses exile, uses external threat to consolidate domestic control and justify crackdowns. Venezuelan military stays loyal through combination of regime patronage networks and fear of U.S. prosecution if they defect. Russia and China provide economic lifeline circumventing blockade. U.S. continues boat strikes and occasional land strikes indefinitely without clear endgame. Death toll climbs past 200, 300, 500 with diminishing returns on drug interdiction. Trump administration maintains operation for political messaging rather than strategic objectives.

Historical Context

Operation Just Cause: Panama Invasion (1989)

December 1989 - January 1990

What Happened

President George H.W. Bush invaded Panama with 26,000 troops to depose General Manuel Noriega, who was wanted for drug trafficking. The operation succeeded militarily—all 27 objectives completed on D-Day. But 200-300 combatants and 300+ civilians died. Latin American nations condemned it as yanqui intervention.

Outcome

Short Term

Noriega captured and extradited; opposition candidate Guillermo Endara installed as president.

Long Term

Panama democratized but drug trafficking through the country continued. Set precedent for post-Cold War U.S. interventions with fewer international constraints.

Why It's Relevant Today

Trump's Venezuela operation follows similar playbook—drug trafficking justification, military pressure, regime change objective—but targets a larger country with organized armed resistance and great power backing from Russia and China.

Plan Colombia: Two-Decade Drug War (2000-2016)

2000-2016

What Happened

U.S. provided $10 billion to Colombian government for counternarcotics and counterinsurgency operations, with 71% going to military and police. Massive aerial fumigation campaign sprayed 380,000 hectares. After 9/11, mission expanded from counternarcotics to counter-terrorism against FARC guerrillas.

Outcome

Short Term

FARC weakened militarily; security improved in major cities; some reduction in coca cultivation.

Long Term

Drug production shifted to other countries (balloon effect). Coca cultivation eventually rebounded. High cost in civilian lives and displacement. Washington Office on Latin America concluded operation 'only achieved part of the goal.'

Why It's Relevant Today

Shows limits of military approach to drug trafficking—even with $10 billion and two decades, cocaine production simply moved elsewhere. Operation Southern Spear's focus on interdiction likely produces similar displacement without addressing demand.

Juan Guaidó's Failed Interim Presidency (2019-2023)

January 2019 - January 2023

What Happened

During Trump's first term, the U.S. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president after Maduro's fraudulent 2018 election. Over 50 countries followed U.S. recognition. Trump imposed punishing oil sanctions to force Maduro's exit. Guaidó attempted to rally military defections but they never materialized.

Outcome

Short Term

Guaidó gained international legitimacy but zero control of Venezuelan territory or institutions.

Long Term

Maduro retained power despite sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Guaidó's support eroded; opposition eventually abandoned the interim presidency concept. Sanctions devastated Venezuelan economy but strengthened regime control.

Why It's Relevant Today

U.S. now backs Edmundo González as 'rightful president'—the exact same strategy that failed with Guaidó. External recognition proved meaningless without internal power. This time Trump adds military force, but Venezuelan armed forces haven't flipped yet.

21 Sources:
+15
CNN NBC News PBS NewsHour Al Jazeera Council on Foreign Relations Wikipedia CBS News Axios CBC News Cuba Headlines Newsweek The Washington Post Military.com CNN NBC News PBS NewsHour Al Jazeera PBS NewsHour Wikipedia Wikipedia Wikipedia