Overview
The CIA just struck Venezuelan soil. On December 30, President Trump confirmed the first known U.S. land attack inside Venezuela—a drone strike on a coastal dock allegedly used by the Tren de Aragua gang to load drug boats. No one was there when the missiles hit. Meanwhile, in the Pacific that same day, a U.S. strike on another boat killed two more people, bringing total deaths to at least 107 since September.
What began as maritime drug interdiction has morphed into something bigger. Trump has designated Venezuela's government a terrorist organization, imposed a naval blockade on oil tankers, authorized CIA lethal operations, and deployed 15,000 troops to the Caribbean—the largest military buildup in the region since the 1994 Haiti intervention. Congressional investigators are probing whether killing shipwrecked survivors constitutes war crimes. The UN calls it illegal armed aggression. And despite Trump's drug war rhetoric, experts say the real objective looks like regime change.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Venezuela's most powerful transnational gang, born inside Tocorón prison and now operating across Latin America and the United States.
Authorized by Trump in October 2025 to conduct lethal covert operations inside Venezuela—broadening CIA role beyond intelligence gathering.
Responsible for U.S. military operations in Central and South America and the Caribbean.
Leading congressional oversight of military operations with focus on potential war crimes.
Timeline
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Maduro Claims Record Drug Plane Shootdowns
PoliticalMaduro announces Venezuelan forces shot down 9 foreign drug-trafficking aircraft in 24 hours—highest single-day total—bringing 2025 total to 39. Uses counter-narrative to deflect U.S. accusations.
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CIA Drone Strike on Venezuelan Dock (Christmas Eve)
MilitaryCIA conducts drone strike on remote Tren de Aragua drug loading dock on Venezuelan coast between December 24-25. No casualties as facility was empty. Trump reveals strike publicly on December 26.
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First Land Strike Inside Venezuela
MilitaryCIA drone destroys coastal dock used by Tren de Aragua; no casualties. Pacific strike kills two, bringing total deaths to 107.
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UN Experts Condemn Blockade as Illegal
InternationalFour UN human rights experts declare blockade illegal armed aggression, warn strikes may violate international law.
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Venezuela Designated Terrorist Organization
PoliticalTrump designates entire Maduro government as Foreign Terrorist Organization, orders naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers.
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Congress Opens Bipartisan Investigation
InvestigationSenate and House Armed Services Committees launch probes into alleged 'kill all' order and survivor killings.
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Trump Pardons Convicted Drug Trafficker
PoliticalPresident pardons former Honduran President Hernández, serving 45 years for trafficking 400 tons of cocaine.
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Hegseth Names 'Operation Southern Spear'
MilitaryDefense Secretary formally announces operation after 20th strike, describing mission to 'remove narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere.'
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USS Gerald R. Ford Arrives Caribbean
MilitaryLargest aircraft carrier joins operation, bringing total U.S. personnel in region to 15,000.
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Trump Confirms CIA Covert Operations
IntelligencePresident publicly acknowledges authorizing CIA lethal operations in Venezuela—extraordinary disclosure for sitting president.
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First Boat Strike Kills 11 in Caribbean
MilitaryNavy strikes boat from Venezuela in four attacks, including controversial second strike killing shipwrecked survivors.
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U.S. Begins Major Caribbean Buildup
MilitaryUSS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group deploys to Caribbean, positioning 120 miles from Venezuelan coast.
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Maduro Annuls Presidential Election
PoliticalMaduro nullifies election results showing opposition victory; opposition claims Edmundo González won decisively.
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DOJ Indicts Maduro for Narcoterrorism
LegalU.S. unseals indictment charging Maduro and 14 officials with leading 'Cartel de los Soles,' trafficking cocaine, and weapons offenses.
Scenarios
Maduro Falls, Venezuela Descends Into Chaos
Discussed by: CNN security analysts, Council on Foreign Relations experts
Trump achieves regime change through sustained military pressure, blockade, and internal collapse. But unlike Panama 1989, no organized opposition controls territory or institutions. Multiple armed groups—military factions, Tren de Aragua, Colombian guerrillas, rival cartels—vie for power. U.S. faces open-ended military commitment to stabilize a failed state, with troops potentially staying for years. Drug trafficking explodes as rival groups fight for control of trafficking routes. Venezuelan refugees surge into Colombia and Brazil.
Strikes Ruled War Crimes, Operation Collapses
Discussed by: Congressional investigators, international law experts, UN human rights officials
Bipartisan congressional investigation concludes the September 2 survivor killings violated laws of war. International Criminal Court opens preliminary examination. Allied Latin American governments withdraw support for regime change efforts. Trump faces choice between abandoning the operation or doubling down despite international isolation. Military leaders become reluctant to execute further strikes fearing personal legal liability. Operation stalls but blockade continues, hardening Maduro's position domestically.
Maduro Negotiates Exit, Controlled Transition
Discussed by: U.S. State Department officials (background), regional diplomats
Facing economic strangulation from the oil blockade and military pressure, Maduro accepts exile deal guaranteeing no extradition to face U.S. drug charges. Edmundo González returns from Spain to lead transitional government backed by Venezuelan military factions that flip after U.S. guarantees. Controlled transition avoids chaos but requires U.S. accepting some Maduro allies remaining in power structures. Drug trafficking continues under new management. Resembles successful Panama operation outcome but on longer timeline.
Stalemate: Maduro Survives, Strikes Continue
Discussed by: Washington Post reporting, Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis
Maduro refuses exile, uses external threat to consolidate domestic control and justify crackdowns. Venezuelan military stays loyal through combination of regime patronage networks and fear of U.S. prosecution if they defect. Russia and China provide economic lifeline circumventing blockade. U.S. continues boat strikes and occasional land strikes indefinitely without clear endgame. Death toll climbs past 200, 300, 500 with diminishing returns on drug interdiction. Trump administration maintains operation for political messaging rather than strategic objectives.
Historical Context
Operation Just Cause: Panama Invasion (1989)
December 1989 - January 1990What Happened
President George H.W. Bush invaded Panama with 26,000 troops to depose General Manuel Noriega, who was wanted for drug trafficking. The operation succeeded militarily—all 27 objectives completed on D-Day. But 200-300 combatants and 300+ civilians died. Latin American nations condemned it as yanqui intervention.
Outcome
Short term: Noriega captured and extradited; opposition candidate Guillermo Endara installed as president.
Long term: Panama democratized but drug trafficking through the country continued. Set precedent for post-Cold War U.S. interventions with fewer international constraints.
Why It's Relevant
Trump's Venezuela operation follows similar playbook—drug trafficking justification, military pressure, regime change objective—but targets a larger country with organized armed resistance and great power backing from Russia and China.
Plan Colombia: Two-Decade Drug War (2000-2016)
2000-2016What Happened
U.S. provided $10 billion to Colombian government for counternarcotics and counterinsurgency operations, with 71% going to military and police. Massive aerial fumigation campaign sprayed 380,000 hectares. After 9/11, mission expanded from counternarcotics to counter-terrorism against FARC guerrillas.
Outcome
Short term: FARC weakened militarily; security improved in major cities; some reduction in coca cultivation.
Long term: Drug production shifted to other countries (balloon effect). Coca cultivation eventually rebounded. High cost in civilian lives and displacement. Washington Office on Latin America concluded operation 'only achieved part of the goal.'
Why It's Relevant
Shows limits of military approach to drug trafficking—even with $10 billion and two decades, cocaine production simply moved elsewhere. Operation Southern Spear's focus on interdiction likely produces similar displacement without addressing demand.
Juan Guaidó's Failed Interim Presidency (2019-2023)
January 2019 - January 2023What Happened
During Trump's first term, the U.S. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president after Maduro's fraudulent 2018 election. Over 50 countries followed U.S. recognition. Trump imposed punishing oil sanctions to force Maduro's exit. Guaidó attempted to rally military defections but they never materialized.
Outcome
Short term: Guaidó gained international legitimacy but zero control of Venezuelan territory or institutions.
Long term: Maduro retained power despite sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Guaidó's support eroded; opposition eventually abandoned the interim presidency concept. Sanctions devastated Venezuelan economy but strengthened regime control.
Why It's Relevant
U.S. now backs Edmundo González as 'rightful president'—the exact same strategy that failed with Guaidó. External recognition proved meaningless without internal power. This time Trump adds military force, but Venezuelan armed forces haven't flipped yet.