Since 2018, U.S. farmers have been caught in Trump-era tariff battles—first the U.S.–China trade war, now tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and others. To counter lost exports and depressed prices, the Trump administrations funded large farm aid through the Agriculture Department's Commodity Credit Corporation: $12 billion in 2018, $16 billion in 2019.
In 2025, after a fresh tariff escalation and a shaky trade framework with China, the White House is preparing another $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by low prices and tariff-related disruptions. This comes on top of tens of billions in other farm payments this year. These moves form a single story: Trump tariffs and farm bailouts, where trade policy is deployed for geopolitical leverage and domestic politics while emergency farm subsidies contain the economic and political fallout in rural America.
Long‑awaited 2025 program to support farmers facing low crop prices and tariff‑linked losses, covering cattle, grains, soybeans, cotton and potatoes.
$23B+
Trade‑war farm aid in Trump’s first term
Approximate Commodity Credit Corporation‑funded bailouts (12B in 2018, 16B authorized in 2019, partially overlapping) for farmers hit by the original U.S.–China trade war.
$40B+
Projected U.S. farm payments in 2025
Total farm program outlays, including disaster and economic aid, are expected to exceed 40 billion dollars in 2025, the second‑highest since 1933.
≈50–75%
Collapse in U.S. soybean exports to China at peak of prior trade war
USDA and industry data show U.S. soybean exports to China fell by roughly three‑quarters at the height of the 2018–19 dispute, a pattern echoed in 2025.
27% vs 55%
U.S. vs Brazil share of world soybean exports
By 2025, the U.S. share of global soybean exports has sunk to about 27 percent, while Brazil’s has climbed to roughly 55 percent, reflecting a long‑term loss of market share.
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16 events
Latest: December 8th, 2025 · 6 months ago
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December 2025
Trump administration set to unveil new 12 billion dollar farm aid package
LatestPolicy
Reports from Bloomberg and Reuters indicate that Trump will announce a 12 billion dollar farm aid package at an event with farmers, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, offering support across cattle, grains, soybeans, cotton and potatoes.
Bessent announces he has sold his North Dakota soybean and corn farmland to comply with an ethics agreement, while arguing on national television that he understands farmers’ struggles and that they still need help.
Chinese and U.S. officials hold constructive call on Busan deal
Diplomacy
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng speaks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer to review the Busan agreement, including soybean purchase commitments, and agrees to expand areas of cooperation.
Rollins previews upcoming bridge payment for farmers
Public Statement
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins tells reporters the administration will announce a bridge payment the following week to support farmers through low crop prices and severe soybean losses to China, with most funds coming from CCC.
November 2025
Analysts see little evidence China will meet soybean purchase pledge
Analysis
With weeks left in 2025, analysts and USDA data show no sign that China is ramping up soybean purchases enough to meet its 12 million metric ton commitment, as Chinese buyers sit on a glut of cheaper South American beans.
October 2025
Trump and Xi reach Busan arrangement on trade and soybeans
Trade Deal
At a summit in Busan, South Korea, Trump and Xi unveil a framework under which China pledges to buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 and 25 million annually in subsequent years, and to ease rare earth export controls.
USDA uses CCC funds to push out 3 billion dollars during shutdown
Implementation
Amid a federal government shutdown, USDA reopens Farm Service Agency offices to distribute more than 3 billion dollars in aid funded by the Commodity Credit Corporation, underscoring reliance on executive‑controlled financing.
April 2025
Farm exporters call tariff fallout a full‑blown crisis
Economic Impact
U.S. agriculture exporters warn that the global backlash to Trump’s tariffs is already a full‑blown crisis, with cancelled Chinese orders, layoffs and no obvious alternative markets, despite administration assurances.
March 2025
Executive Order 14245 expands tariff front via Venezuelan oil link
Policy
Trump signs an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all goods from countries that import Venezuelan oil, further widening the set of partners exposed to U.S. tariffs and raising concerns about collateral damage to agriculture.
USDA begins disbursing 10 billion dollars in economic aid over low prices
Implementation
USDA opens applications under a congressionally funded Emergency Commodity Assistance Program for farmers facing commodity prices so low that some crops are more expensive to grow than sell.
February 2025
New Trump tariffs trigger trade war with Canada and Mexico
Policy
Early in his second term, Trump moves to impose a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico citing security concerns, sparking a 2025 trade war that both governments say violates USMCA and unsettling farm markets.
August 2020
GAO flags concentration and scale of 2019 trade‑aid payments
Oversight
A GAO report finds USDA distributed about 14.4 billion dollars in 2019 Market Facilitation Program payments to nearly 644,000 operations, with average payments over 22,000 dollars and some counties averaging 50,000 or more.
July 2019
USDA details 16 billion dollar support for farmers
Implementation
USDA outlines how 14.5 billion in direct payments, 1.4 billion in commodity purchases and 100 million for export promotion will be deployed under the Market Facilitation Program, all under CCC authority.
May 2019
Second Trump farm bailout: 16 billion dollars announced
Policy
The Trump administration unveils a 16 billion dollar trade‑aid package, including 14.5 billion in direct payments to farmers and ranchers, again justified as offsetting Chinese retaliatory tariffs and funded via tariff revenues and CCC.
September 2018
USDA launches Market Facilitation Program and trade mitigation tools
Implementation
USDA begins the Market Facilitation Program, food purchase and distribution, and export promotion efforts to compensate producers of soybeans, corn, cotton, pork, dairy and other crops harmed by retaliation.
July 2018
First Trump farm bailout announced amid escalating tariffs
Policy
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announces that USDA will provide up to 12 billion dollars in temporary assistance to farmers hit by foreign retaliation against Trump’s tariffs, financed through Commodity Credit Corporation authority.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
1980–1981
1980 U.S. Grain Embargo Against the Soviet Union
In January 1980, President Jimmy Carter halted sales of about 17 million tons of grain to the Soviet Union in response to the invasion of Afghanistan, while promising to shield American farmers from the fallout. The administration committed billions of dollars in additional farm support to offset export losses. Subsequent analyses found that the embargo hurt some U.S. farmers in the short term and shifted trade flows, but much of the income loss was offset by government support and later price increases.
Then
The embargo disrupted Soviet livestock production and temporarily lowered U.S. farm export earnings, but substantial federal support cushioned many farmers.
Now
The episode contributed to a long‑run erosion of U.S. dominance in grain exports as other suppliers expanded, illustrating how using food exports as a geopolitical weapon can accelerate competitors’ rise.
Why this matters now
Like Trump’s tariff campaigns, the grain embargo used agricultural trade for foreign‑policy leverage and then relied on federal aid to manage domestic fallout. It shows how quickly importers can diversify away from U.S. suppliers and how support programs, while cushioning farmers, cannot fully reverse structural loss of market share.
2 of 3
2002–2014
U.S.–Brazil Cotton Subsidy Dispute at the WTO (DS267)
In the early 2000s, Brazil successfully challenged U.S. cotton subsidies at the World Trade Organization, arguing they caused serious prejudice to Brazilian interests by suppressing world prices. WTO panels and the Appellate Body found several U.S. programs inconsistent with WTO obligations, leading to years of negotiations and an eventual settlement in which the United States compensated Brazil and reformed some cotton support measures.
Then
The U.S. faced the prospect of WTO‑authorized retaliation and agreed to make payments to Brazil while adjusting aspects of its cotton programs.
Now
The case pressured the U.S. to decouple some support from production and highlighted that large commodity‑specific subsidies can trigger successful legal challenges, influencing future farm bill design.
Why this matters now
The cotton dispute underscores that aggressive, repeated farm bailouts linked to trade disputes can invite WTO scrutiny. As Trump’s CCC‑funded bailouts grow in scale and duration, they may be tested against similar disciplines, especially if competitors view them as price‑suppressing export subsidies.
3 of 3
Early 1980s–late 1980s
1980s U.S. Farm Crisis and Federal Support Expansion
During the 1980s farm crisis, a combination of high interest rates, falling land values and lower commodity prices pushed many U.S. farmers into severe financial distress. The federal government responded with a mix of income supports, debt restructuring, land‑set‑aside programs and other interventions. Later studies concluded that while export shocks, including embargoes, played a role, broader macroeconomic conditions were the dominant factors driving the crisis, and that even large subsidies could not fully offset structural imbalances.
Then
Significant numbers of farms failed or were consolidated despite aid, and rural communities suffered prolonged economic hardship.
Now
The crisis led to lasting changes in farm finance, land ownership patterns and federal farm programs, with greater emphasis on risk management and loan restructuring.
Why this matters now
The 1980s experience illustrates that when low prices and high leverage coincide, even large government payments may not prevent widespread consolidation. Today’s mix of tariff‑driven export losses, low prices and rising costs raises analogous risks if bailouts become a substitute for deeper adjustments in production, markets and farm finances.
