U.S. Tariffs Push Trade Relations to Depression-Era Levels
January 31st, 2026: Steel Remission Expires for Most SectorsNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
For three decades, the United States and Canada operated under free trade agreements that made their border the world's busiest commercial crossing, with nearly $2.7 billion in goods flowing between them daily. That era ended on February 1, 2025, when President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods. One year later, America's effective tariff rate has climbed to 16.9%—the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act deepened the Great Depression in 1932.
On January 31, 2026, Canada's temporary relief on retaliatory tariffs for American steel used in manufacturing, food packaging, and agriculture expired—meaning Canadian factories now pay full 25% duties on U.S. steel imports. The automotive and aerospace sectors retain exemptions until June 30, but the broader pattern is clear: integrated North American supply chains are fragmenting as both countries dig in. With the mandatory USMCA review deadline approaching in July 2026, the question is whether the trilateral trade framework can survive or will be replaced by something smaller.
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Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"Tariffs are a tax on your own people dressed up as patriotism. These men are strangling the very commerce that made their fortunes possible—steel, rails, and transport built this continent as one market, not twenty fractured fiefdoms nursing wounded pride."
Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.
"I warned them in '32 that Smoot-Hawley would strangle commerce, yet here we are repeating the same folly with different flags. The mathematics of reciprocal destruction remain unchanged: when neighbors tax each other into poverty, neither collects revenue worth having."
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The agency responsible for developing and coordinating U.S. international trade policy, including tariff implementation and USMCA negotiations.
Canada's ministry responsible for economic and fiscal policy, including the tariff remission orders that determine which U.S. goods receive relief from retaliatory duties.
Canada's temporary relief on retaliatory tariffs for U.S. steel used in manufacturing, food packaging, and agriculture expires. Auto and aerospace exemptions continue until June 30.
25% tariffs on steel derivative products from all countries take effect, covering $10 billion in imports.
Canada extends steel tariff remission to January 31 for general manufacturing; June 30 for automotive and aerospace sectors.
Carney government unveils measures to protect domestic steel: new 25% tariffs on steel derivatives globally, reduced quotas for imports.
Trump announces cancellation of all trade negotiations with Canada after Ontario publishes advertisement criticizing tariff policy.
Canada eliminates retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. goods, keeping only steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs in place.
Trade deal deadline expires without agreement. U.S. raises Canadian tariffs from 25% to 35%; adds 50% copper tariff.
U.S. increases steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% for all countries except the UK.
U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on automobiles. Non-USMCA-compliant vehicles and parts subject to duties.
Mark Carney sworn in as Canada's 24th Prime Minister, replacing Justin Trudeau. Confirms he will maintain retaliatory tariff stance.
Canada imposes 25% retaliatory tariffs on $29.8 billion of U.S. imports: $12.6B steel, $3B aluminum, $14.2B other goods.
U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from all countries under Section 232, including Canada. No USMCA exemption for these products.
U.S. exempts USMCA-compliant Canadian goods from tariffs, covering approximately 90% of Canadian exports. Canada delays Phase 2 retaliation.
U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods become effective. Canada imposes 25% retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion worth of Phase 1 U.S. goods.
Trump pauses tariff implementation until March 4. Canada announces matching pause on $30 billion retaliatory tariffs.
Trump announces 25% tariffs on most Canadian goods and 10% on energy, citing border security concerns under IEEPA. Implementation set for February 4.
New administration releases trade policy memorandum directing studies on tariff implementation by April 1.
Discussed by: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Baker Institute, and trade lawyers anticipating July 2026 review
All three countries agree to renew the USMCA for another 16 years, but only after Canada and Mexico accept new terms. Possible concessions include stricter rules of origin for automobiles, concessions on dairy and lumber market access, alignment with U.S. trade restrictions on China, and formal side letters institutionalizing some tariff levels. Steel and aluminum tariffs may remain in place even as the broader agreement continues.
Discussed by: Oxford Economics analysts and Global News reporting on review process risks
The three countries fail to agree on renewal but none withdraws. Under USMCA Article 34.7, this triggers annual reviews where the agreement remains in force but its future stays uncertain. This creates persistent policy uncertainty, discouraging long-term investment in cross-border manufacturing while existing supply chains continue functioning. Tariffs on non-compliant goods remain.
Discussed by: U.S. Trade Representative Greer has floated bilateral frameworks; AmCham Mexico considers this suboptimal but possible
The U.S. withdraws from USMCA and negotiates separate bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico. This would eliminate the integrated North American supply chain framework and create different rules for each border. Critics warn this would be 'highly complex' and economically damaging, but it would give the U.S. more leverage in separate negotiations.
Discussed by: Prime Minister Carney's Davos remarks; trade diversification strategy announcements
Unable to secure tariff-free access to the U.S. market, Canada accelerates trade deals with the European Union, Asia-Pacific nations, and others. Carney has already announced plans for 12 new trade agreements. The U.S.-Canada relationship stabilizes at a higher-tariff equilibrium, with Canadian manufacturers shifting focus away from American customers. The USMCA continues but with diminished practical importance.
Despite warnings from over 1,000 economists and opposition from executives like Henry Ford and J.P. Morgan's Thomas Lamont, President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, raising average tariffs on dutiable imports from 40% to 47%. As the Depression caused deflation, the effective rate reached nearly 60% by 1932. Canada responded by imposing tariffs covering 30% of U.S. exports within months.
Over two dozen countries enacted retaliatory tariffs. U.S. imports fell 66% from $4.4 billion to $1.5 billion between 1929 and 1933.
Smoot-Hawley became synonymous with protectionist overreach, leading to the 1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act and decades of bipartisan consensus against high tariffs. Senators Smoot and Hawley both lost their seats in 1932.
Today's 16.9% effective U.S. tariff rate is the highest since 1932, the peak of Smoot-Hawley's impact. Canada was the first country to retaliate against Smoot-Hawley, just as it has responded dollar-for-dollar to current U.S. tariffs.
In response to U.S. protectionism and the Depression, Britain and its dominions including Canada met in Ottawa to create a system of preferential tariffs within the British Empire. Britain abandoned its longstanding free trade policy, and Canada strengthened ties with British markets while reducing dependence on American trade.
Britain's imports from the Empire increased from under 30% to over 40%. Trade patterns shifted dramatically away from the United States.
Imperial Preference lasted until the 1970s and demonstrated how protectionism can accelerate the formation of competing trade blocs rather than simply reducing overall trade.
Carney's announcement of 12 new trade deals at Davos echoes Canada's 1932 pivot toward alternative trading partners. Then as now, U.S. tariffs prompted Canada to seek closer ties elsewhere.
In his first term, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum under Section 232, citing national security. After initial protests, Canada and Mexico were granted exemptions as part of USMCA negotiations. The EU, Japan, and other allies negotiated quota arrangements.
The U.S. steel industry added nearly 5,000 jobs, but downstream manufacturers faced higher input costs. Analysts calculated $270,000 in added industry profits per steel job saved.
The tariffs remained in place through the Biden administration. They established the precedent for using Section 232 authority broadly, paving the way for the current expansion.
The 2025 tariff escalation explicitly revokes the exemptions negotiated in 2018. Canada went from exempted ally to facing 50% steel tariffs in seven years, demonstrating how bilateral trade arrangements can unravel.