Venezuela opposition walks fine line over U.S. oil deal

Overview

Updated Sep 24

Venezuela's opposition backed the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro in January. Nine months on, acting president Delcy Rodríguez told the U.N. on Sept. 23 that elections will come, but gave no date and thanked President Trump.

The oil deal gives Washington majority control of 65 billion barrels of reserves, negotiated without opposition input. Machado calls it 'saddening and angering' but won't reject it, since opposing Washington would cost her movement its main backer. She also can't get home: her team said three attempts to fly back from Panama failed.

Why it matters

The U.S. controls 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's oil, but the deal's terms may entrench an unelected interim government and delay elections.

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Key Indicators

100 years

Concession term (disputed)

Washington says 100 years; PDVSA's president says 25 years, renewable. Critics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies say the term is not covered by Venezuela's oil law, leaving it constitutionally fragile.

35%

Pentagon equity stake in NABEP parent

The U.S. Department of War is to take 35% of NABEP's parent company. Economist Francisco Monaldi says the plan is not legally possible under U.S. law.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

People Involved

Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez

Acting president of Venezuela

Acting president since Maduro's capture in January 2026; pledged elections without a date at the U.N. on Sept. 23

María Corina Machado

Opposition leader; Nobel Peace Prize laureate

Opposition leader unable to return to Venezuela from exile; has not rejected the oil deal

Nicolás Maduro Moros

Former president of Venezuela

Captured by U.S. forces in January 2026

Donald Trump

U.S. president

Overseeing the deal; prefers dealing with Rodríguez

Risa Grais-Targow

Latin America director at Eurasia Group

Analyst tracking the deal's political incentives

Bob McNally

President of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy

Analyst of the deal's political vulnerability

Organizations Involved

North America Blue Energy Partners (NABEP)

U.S.-Venezuelan joint venture

Vehicle for U.S. control of Venezuelan oil output

The corporate vehicle giving the U.S. government majority control over Venezuelan oil production.

U.S. Department of State

Federal agency

Holds purchase rights over NABEP output

Can buy 20% of NABEP output at production cost, with first refusal on the remaining 80%.

Vente Venezuela

Opposition political party

Machado's party; internal pressure against the deal

The opposition movement questioning whether agreements signed by Rodríguez can hold.

National Assembly of Venezuela

Legislative Body

Approved the oil agreement this week

Legislature that voted to approve the deal, with some opposition lawmakers abstaining.

Timeline

January 2026 September 2026

10 events Latest: September 23rd, 2026 · 1 month ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

September 2026
Rodríguez pledges elections at U.N., offers no date
Latest Diplomacy

Rodríguez told the U.N. General Assembly that 'there will be elections' in Venezuela and that her government has begun talks with opposition groups. She gave no timetable and thanked President Trump.
September 23rd, 2026
Trump meets Rodríguez in New York
Meeting

Rodríguez hailed a 'historic meeting' with Trump on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, discussing debt restructuring, energy, mining and foreign investment with U.S. officials.
September 23rd, 2026
Machado's team fails three attempts to bring her home
Development

María Corina Machado remained unable to return to Venezuela. Her team said three attempts to travel from Panama between Sept. 21 and 22 failed: a boat trip was canceled, and two planned flights did not take off.
September 23rd, 2026
PDVSA chief disputes 100-year term of oil deal
Disclosure

PDVSA president Héctor Obregón said the contract runs 25 years, renewable by mutual agreement, contradicting the White House's 100-year framing. Economist Francisco Monaldi told El País the Pentagon's plan to take 35% of NABEP's shares is not legally possible.
September 8th, 2026
Opposition in a political bind over the deal
Analysis

Reports detail how the deal forces opposition to choose between backing Washington and pursuing democratic transition.
September 5th, 2026
National Assembly approves oil deal
Vote

Venezuela's legislature approves; some opposition lawmakers abstain, demanding the written terms first.
September 2nd, 2026
Machado speaks at Bled forum
Statement

Machado says development requires democracy but avoids condemning the oil deal itself.
September 1st, 2026
August 2026
U.S.-Venezuela oil deal announced
Agreement

Trump and Rodríguez announce a 100-year arrangement giving U.S. control over most Venezuelan oil; NABEP created.
August 28th, 2026
June 2026
Earthquakes kill thousands in Venezuela
Crisis

Twin earthquakes kill over 6,500; Rodríguez's botched response sinks her approval rating to 22%.
June 15th, 2026
January 2026
U.S. captures Maduro; Rodríguez takes over
Military action

U.S. forces capture Nicolás Maduro; his vice president Delcy Rodríguez assumes the presidency.
January 15th, 2026

Scenarios

Deal holds through Rodríguez's term; elections slip past 2028

Likely Resolves by Jun 1, 2028

Discussed by: Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow; economist Ricardo Hausmann

Trump prioritizes the deal over elections, and Rodríguez slow-walks transition talks while the opposition lacks leverage. The U.S. gives her political cover, no credible election date materializes, and Washington's interest in stable oil access keeps her in place through Maduro's term, which ends in 2030.

Elections happen; a new government repudiates the deal

Possible Resolves by Mar 1, 2029

Discussed by: Rapidan Energy's Bob McNally; opposition figures like José Amalio Graterol; Center for Strategic and International Studies

A Democrat wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election and reconsiders the agreement, or Washington's promised transition finally forces a vote. A freely elected Venezuelan government — likely Machado's — declares the 100-year arrangement unconstitutional under Venezuela's oil law and cancels or renegotiates NABEP's terms.

Trump pushes elections; deal survives with renegotiation

Possible Resolves by Jun 1, 2027

Discussed by: Al Jazeera's analysis of Washington's three-phase plan

Trump extracts concessions from Rodríguez — a firm election date — in exchange for keeping the deal in place. Opposition joins a renegotiated agreement, winning amendments that address constitutional concerns. Venezuela votes in 2027 or early 2028, and Machado leads after the ballot.

Machado stays abroad as elections slip past 2027

Likely Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: UPI reporting on failed return attempts; opposition figures monitoring transition talks

Rodríguez told the U.N. elections will come but named no date. Machado cannot re-enter Venezuela to campaign, and the government's 'political dialogue with opposition sectors' has no calendar. Washington is not pressing publicly for a vote, so the interim arrangement holds past Maduro's term, which ends in 2030.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

April 1993

Chevron's Tengiz deal with Kazakhstan (1993)

Chevron signed a $20 billion agreement to develop the Tengiz oil field with Kazakhstan's authoritarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had dissolved parliament and repressed opponents. Negotiated with little transparency, the deal became the pillar of U.S.-Kazakh economic ties.

Then

It brought hundreds of millions in annual revenue to Nazarbayev's government and gave his regime Western legitimacy.

Now

TengizChevroil still operates today, showing a resource deal with an autocrat can survive for decades and deepen his hold on power.

Why this matters now

Venezuelan opposition figures argue the U.S. deal does the same for Rodríguez — a revenue stream and U.S. legitimacy that reduces pressure for elections.

March 1938

Mexico's 1938 oil expropriation

President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies holding decade-old concessions granted under earlier governments, including the Porfirio Díaz era, creating the state company Pemex. The move followed a long labor dispute with Anglo-American firms.

Then

The U.S. and Britain protested; Mexico repaid claims over years while keeping control of its oil.

Now

The expropriation established that resource concessions made under one government can be annulled by a later one.

Why this matters now

That is the legal risk shadowing the 100-year U.S. deal if Venezuela holds free elections and a new government declares it unconstitutional.

2008-2009

Iraq's contested oil contracts (2008-2009)

Iraq's central government signed service contracts giving international majors control of its biggest oil fields, but the Kurdish regional government argued the 2005 constitution let it sign its own deals. Two sets of contracts coexisted with conflicting legal claims.

Then

The contracts went ahead, but disputes over which were valid persisted for years.

Now

The ambiguity became a permanent fault line in Iraqi oil governance and a model for how contested-constitution deals can be exploited later.

Why this matters now

Critics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warn the U.S.-Venezuela deal's unclear legal footing invites the same kind of challenge.