Anchor
Venezuela opposition walks fine line over U.S. oil deal
Money MovesActing president Delcy Rodríguez signed the 100-year arrangement without opposition input; María Corina Machado calls it 'saddening' but won't reject it.
2 days ago: Opposition in a political bind over the dealNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Overview
Updated 1 hour agoVenezuela's opposition backed the U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro in January. Now the oil deal Washington signed with his replacement is testing their loyalty to America's arrangement against their democratic project.
The agreement gives the U.S. government majority control over 65 billion barrels of reserves through a 100-year structure negotiated without opposition input. Machado calls it 'saddening and angering' but stops short of rejecting it — opposing Washington would cost the opposition its only real backer.
Why it matters
The U.S. controls 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's oil, but the deal's terms may entrench an unelected interim government and delay elections.
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Key Indicators
65 billion barrels
Venezuelan reserves under U.S. majority control
The deal gives the U.S. government control over most of the country's reserves through the NABEP venture.
100 years
Concession term
Critics, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies, note the term is not covered by Venezuela's oil law, leaving it constitutionally fragile.
22%
Rodríguez approval rating
AtlasIntel survey after her botched response to twin earthquakes that killed more than 6,500 people.
20%
State Department purchase right
The State Department can buy 20% of NABEP's oil output at production cost, with first refusal on the remaining 80%.
300+
Political prisoners held by Rodríguez government
A central reason opposition leaders question the legitimacy of any agreement she signs.
Related Media
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People Involved
Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez
Acting president of Venezuela
Acting president since Maduro's capture in January 2026; approval rating near 22%
María Corina Machado
Opposition leader; Nobel Peace Prize laureate
Wants to be next president; has not rejected the oil deal
Nicolás Maduro Moros
Former president of Venezuela
Captured by U.S. forces in January 2026
Donald Trump
U.S. president
Overseeing the deal; prefers dealing with Rodríguez
Risa Grais-Targow
Latin America director at Eurasia Group
Analyst tracking the deal's political incentives
Robert S. McAnnally
President of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy
Analyst of the deal's political vulnerability
Organizations Involved
North America Blue Energy Partners (NABEP)
U.S.-Venezuelan joint venture
Vehicle for U.S. control of Venezuelan oil output
The corporate vehicle giving the U.S. government majority control over Venezuelan oil production.
U.S. Department of State
Federal agency
Holds purchase rights over NABEP output
Can buy 20% of NABEP output at production cost, with first refusal on the remaining 80%.
Vente Venezuela
Opposition political party
Machado's party; internal pressure against the deal
The opposition movement questioning whether agreements signed by Rodríguez can hold.
National Assembly of Venezuela
Legislature
Approved the oil agreement this week
Legislature that voted to approve the deal, with some opposition lawmakers abstaining.
Timeline
January 2026 September 2026
6 events
Latest: 2 days ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date
-
Opposition in a political bind over the deal
Latest AnalysisReports detail how the deal forces opposition to choose between backing Washington and pursuing democratic transition.
-
National Assembly approves oil deal
VoteVenezuela's legislature approves; some opposition lawmakers abstain, demanding the written terms first.
-
Machado speaks at Bled forum
StatementMachado says development requires democracy but avoids condemning the oil deal itself.
-
U.S.-Venezuela oil deal announced
AgreementTrump and Rodríguez announce a 100-year arrangement giving U.S. control over most Venezuelan oil; NABEP created.
-
Earthquakes kill thousands in Venezuela
CrisisTwin earthquakes kill over 6,500; Rodríguez's botched response sinks her approval rating to 22%.
-
U.S. captures Maduro; Rodríguez takes over
Military actionU.S. forces capture Nicolás Maduro; his vice president Delcy Rodríguez assumes the presidency.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
March 1938
Mexico's 1938 oil expropriation
President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies holding decade-old concessions granted under earlier governments, including the Porfirio Díaz era, creating the state company Pemex. The move followed a long labor dispute with Anglo-American firms.
Then
The U.S. and Britain protested; Mexico repaid claims over years while keeping control of its oil.
Now
The expropriation established that resource concessions made under one government can be annulled by a later one.
Why this matters now
That is the legal risk shadowing the 100-year U.S. deal if Venezuela holds free elections and a new government declares it unconstitutional.
April 1993
Chevron's Tengiz deal with Kazakhstan (1993)
Chevron signed a $20 billion agreement to develop the Tengiz oil field with Kazakhstan's authoritarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had dissolved parliament and repressed opponents. Negotiated with little transparency, the deal became the pillar of U.S.-Kazakh economic ties.
Then
It brought hundreds of millions in annual revenue to Nazarbayev's government and gave his regime Western legitimacy.
Now
TengizChevroil still operates today, showing a resource deal with an autocrat can survive for decades and deepen his hold on power.
Why this matters now
Venezuelan opposition figures argue the U.S. deal does the same for Rodríguez — a revenue stream and U.S. legitimacy that reduces pressure for elections.
2008-2009
Iraq's contested oil contracts (2008-2009)
Iraq's central government signed service contracts giving international majors control of its biggest oil fields, but the Kurdish regional government argued the 2005 constitution let it sign its own deals. Two sets of contracts coexisted with conflicting legal claims.
Then
The contracts went ahead, but disputes over which were valid persisted for years.
Now
The ambiguity became a permanent fault line in Iraqi oil governance and a model for how contested-constitution deals can be exploited later.
Why this matters now
Critics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warn the U.S.-Venezuela deal's unclear legal footing invites the same kind of challenge.