Overview
At 2 a.m. on January 3, Delta Force operators dragged Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their bedroom in Caracas. Seven explosions rocked Venezuela's capital as US special forces helicopters evacuated the captured president to the USS Iwo Jima, bound for New York to face narco-terrorism charges. By Saturday afternoon, Maduro arrived at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn—the first American military capture of a sitting head of state since Manuel Noriega in 1989. The operation killed at least 40-80 Venezuelans, including civilians, and left two US personnel injured.
The operation followed Trump's August 2025 secret directive authorizing Pentagon strikes against Latin American cartels designated as terrorist organizations. Trump declared the US will 'run' Venezuela until a 'safe, proper and judicious transition' can be arranged—a statement that triggered international condemnation. Venezuela's Supreme Court appointed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president for 90 days, though she publicly demanded Maduro's release. The UN Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting for January 5, the same day Maduro faces arraignment in Manhattan federal court. Brazil, China, and Russia condemned the strikes as flagrant violations of international law, while Congressional Democrats called the operation 'blatantly illegal' for lacking authorization.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
A Venezuela-based narco-trafficking network embedded in the country's military and government, named for the sun insignias on Venezuelan officers' uniforms.
The US Army's elite counterterrorism and hostage rescue force, commonly known as Delta Force.
One of the most prestigious and powerful US Attorney's offices, handling high-profile national security and organized crime cases.
Timeline
-
Venezuelan Supreme Court Appoints Rodríguez Acting President
PoliticalCourt orders Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume presidency for 90 days to 'guarantee administrative continuity.' Defense Minister endorses ruling; Rodríguez publicly demands Maduro's release.
-
Casualty Figures Revised Upward
MilitaryVenezuelan officials report at least 40-80 people killed in US strikes, including civilians and military personnel. Trump acknowledges 'many Cubans lost their lives' protecting Maduro.
-
Colombia Deploys Border Troops
DiplomaticPresident Petro deploys security forces along 2,219-kilometer border, bolsters humanitarian provisions for potential mass refugee influx. Venezuela temporarily closes border with Brazil.
-
UN Security Council Emergency Session Scheduled
DiplomaticAt request of Venezuela and Colombia, with Russia and China support, UNSC schedules emergency meeting for January 5 at 10 a.m. EST to address US operation.
-
Congressional Democrats Call Operation Illegal
PoliticalRep. McCollum calls strikes 'blatantly illegal,' Sen. Kaine says Trump 'put American servicemembers at risk with this unauthorised attack.' Senate to vote on bipartisan war powers resolution.
-
US Strikes Venezuela, Captures Maduro
MilitaryDelta Force raid seizes Maduro and Flores from bedroom in Caracas. Multiple explosions across capital. Two US personnel injured, one helicopter hit.
-
Trump Announces Capture
StatementPresident confirms on Truth Social that Maduro and wife are aboard USS Iwo Jima heading to New York.
-
AG Bondi Unseals Indictment
LegalAttorney General announces narco-terrorism charges against both Maduro and Flores in Southern District of New York.
-
International Condemnation
DiplomaticBrazil, China, Russia condemn strikes as violating international law. UK stresses it had no involvement.
-
Maduro Arrives in New York
LegalMaduro and Flores land at Stewart International Airport in New Windsor, New York, then transported by helicopter to Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.
-
Trump Announces US Will 'Run' Venezuela
PoliticalPresident declares US will govern Venezuela 'until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,' without providing operational details.
-
Trump Orders Total Blockade
MilitaryPresident announces complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela.
-
Machado Escapes to Norway
PoliticalOpposition leader flees Venezuela after 15 months in hiding to accept Nobel Peace Prize.
-
Naval Blockade Begins
MilitaryUS starts intercepting Venezuelan oil tankers, seizing vessels in international waters.
-
Cartel de los Soles Designated FTO
LegalState Department designates Maduro-led organization as Foreign Terrorist Organization, enabling military action under August directive.
-
USS Gerald R. Ford Deployed
MilitaryAircraft carrier arrives in Caribbean, escalating US naval presence near Venezuela.
-
Airstrikes on Drug Boats Begin
MilitaryUS begins strikes against alleged drug boats as part of Caribbean military buildup.
-
Bounty Raised to $50 Million
LegalUS doubles bounty on Maduro to $50 million, highest ever offered for foreign leader.
-
Secret Pentagon Directive Signed
MilitaryTrump authorizes Pentagon to use military force against Latin American cartels designated as terrorist organizations on foreign soil.
-
Trump's Second Term Begins
PoliticalTrump inaugurated, making Venezuela pressure campaign a priority. Bounty on Maduro increased to $25M in Biden's final days.
-
González Flees to Spain
PoliticalAfter arrest warrant issued, opposition leader González seeks asylum in Spain. US later recognizes him as legitimate president-elect.
-
Venezuela's Disputed Presidential Election
PoliticalMaduro claims victory despite opposition tallies from 80% of polling stations showing González won 67% to 30%. International observers call it egregious fraud.
Scenarios
Maduro Convicted, González Returns to Power
Discussed by: US State Department officials, Venezuelan opposition leaders, Atlantic Council analysts
The Southern District of New York successfully prosecutes Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, producing evidence of his two-decade partnership with FARC and cocaine trafficking operations. With Maduro imprisoned in the US, Edmundo González returns from Spanish exile to assume the presidency, recognized by the US and regional allies. Venezuela's military, stripped of its Cartel de los Soles leadership, accepts the transition. The opposition coalition begins rebuilding democratic institutions and negotiating sanctions relief in exchange for free elections and anti-corruption reforms.
Venezuela Descends Into Civil Conflict
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Brazil's Lula administration, UN Security Council members
Maduro loyalists in Venezuela's military reject the US operation as illegal regime change and refuse to recognize González. Armed factions splinter across the country as Chavista hardliners clash with opposition forces and US-backed elements. Regional powers split: Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia condemn the intervention and refuse cooperation, while Argentina and Ecuador support González. Venezuela fractures into competing zones of control, triggering a refugee crisis that dwarfs the previous exodus. Oil production collapses further, and the humanitarian catastrophe deepens.
International Court Rules US Violated Law, Diplomatic Crisis
Discussed by: European Union diplomats, Chinese and Russian UN representatives, international law scholars
The International Court of Justice or UN mechanisms rule the US strikes violated the UN Charter's prohibition on force and Venezuela's sovereignty. China and Russia leverage the ruling to challenge US global credibility and the rules-based order. European allies distance themselves from the operation, as the UK already stressed its non-involvement. Latin American nations—even traditional US partners—condemn the precedent of unilateral military intervention. The US faces isolation in multilateral forums, weakening its ability to build coalitions on Ukraine, Taiwan, and Middle East issues.
Maduro Released on Technicality, Returns to Venezuela
Discussed by: Defense attorneys, legal analysts at Columbia Law School, sovereign immunity scholars
Defense lawyers successfully argue that kidnapping a sitting head of state violates international law principles of sovereign immunity, making evidence inadmissible. Federal courts rule the executive branch exceeded constitutional authority by conducting regime change without congressional authorization. Maduro is released and returns to Venezuela a hero, his regime strengthened by the narrative of US imperialism. The failed operation emboldens other US adversaries and radicalizes Latin American politics leftward. Trump faces domestic political backlash as the operation backfires spectacularly.
Dual Government Crisis: Rodríguez vs González Power Struggle
Discussed by: Atlantic Council analysts, International Crisis Group, Latin American political scientists
Venezuela fractures into competing claims of legitimacy. Delcy Rodríguez governs from Caracas with military backing and Supreme Court approval, insisting Maduro remains the rightful president. Edmundo González returns from Spain backed by US recognition and opposition forces, claiming the 2024 election mandate. Neither controls the full apparatus of state. The US attempts to 'run' Venezuela through economic leverage and González support while Rodríguez maintains day-to-day governance. Cuba, Russia, and China provide resources to the Caracas government; regional powers split recognition. The stalemate could last months, paralyzing decision-making as humanitarian conditions deteriorate.
Senate Blocks Further Venezuela Operations, Constitutional Crisis
Discussed by: Congressional Democrats, constitutional law scholars, War Powers Act experts
The Senate passes a bipartisan war powers resolution blocking Trump's Venezuela operations and declaring his 'we will run the country' statement unconstitutional overreach. Trump vetoes it, but Congress overrides with two-thirds majorities in both chambers, setting up a landmark constitutional clash. Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on presidential war powers versus congressional authority. The administration ignores the resolution, continuing to direct Venezuelan affairs through Rubio and military presence. The crisis tests whether Congress can effectively check executive military action and whether Trump's claim to govern a foreign nation has any legal basis.
Maduro Conviction Thrown Out, Habeas Corpus Victory
Discussed by: International law professors, defense attorneys, UN human rights experts
Federal judges rule that the forcible kidnapping of a sitting head of state violates fundamental principles of international law, sovereign immunity, and due process. The court finds that even if the underlying narco-terrorism charges have merit, the method of obtaining custody was so egregiously illegal that all evidence is inadmissible and prosecution cannot proceed. Maduro wins habeas corpus release but faces diplomatic limbo—Venezuela demands his return, but the US refuses repatriation. He becomes a stateless person detained in legal purgatory while appeals drag on for years. The precedent severely constrains future extraterritorial captures.
Historical Context
Operation Just Cause: US Invasion of Panama, 1989-1990
December 1989 - January 1990What Happened
The US invaded Panama with 27,000 troops to depose Manuel Noriega, who was wanted on drug trafficking charges. After four days evading capture, Noriega took refuge in the Vatican embassy and surrendered on January 3, 1990—exactly 36 years before Maduro's capture. He was flown to Miami, tried on the existing indictment, and convicted on most charges.
Outcome
Short term: Noriega sentenced to 40 years; 23 US troops killed, 200-300 Panamanian combatants and 300+ civilians dead, 20,000 displaced.
Long term: Guillermo Endara sworn in as president, but reconstruction suffered from corruption. US faced international condemnation for unilateral military action without UN approval.
Why It's Relevant
The Maduro operation directly parallels Noriega's capture—both involved drug indictments, both were removed by military force rather than extradition, and both set precedents for US intervention in Latin America that strain international law.
Capture of Saddam Hussein: Operation Red Dawn, 2003
December 2003What Happened
Eight months after the US invasion of Iraq toppled his regime, US special operations forces located Saddam Hussein hiding in a spider hole near his hometown of Tikrit. Task Force 121 captured him on December 13, 2003, without resistance. He was later tried by an Iraqi tribunal and executed in 2006.
Outcome
Short term: Saddam transferred to Iraqi custody, tried for crimes against humanity, and hanged in December 2006.
Long term: Iraq descended into sectarian civil war, insurgency, and the rise of ISIS. The US occupation lasted over eight years, costing thousands of American lives and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives.
Why It's Relevant
Unlike Saddam, Maduro was captured as a sitting head of state rather than a deposed dictator. But both cases raise questions about whether removing strongmen by force creates stability or chaos—and whether military victory translates to political success.
US Covert Operations in Latin America During Cold War
1950s-1980sWhat Happened
The US orchestrated numerous regime change operations across Latin America, including the 1954 Guatemala coup, the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in 1961, support for the 1973 Chilean coup against Allende, and funding of Contra rebels against Nicaragua's Sandinista government in the 1980s. These operations were justified as containing communism.
Outcome
Short term: Mixed results: some successfully installed or supported anti-communist governments; others failed spectacularly like the Bay of Pigs.
Long term: Generated deep anti-American sentiment across Latin America, damaged US credibility on democracy and human rights, and contributed to decades of instability and civil wars.
Why It's Relevant
The Venezuela operation revives Latin American memories of US interventionism, now framed around drugs and migration rather than communism. Regional leaders like Brazil's Lula invoke this history when condemning the strikes as imperialism.