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Overview
For most of the war, Ukraine's Patriot batteries could knock down the ballistic missiles Russia aimed at Kyiv. On August 1, they stopped one out of 27.
Ukraine has run out of interceptor missiles for its US-supplied Patriot systems. Russia has noticed, and is pointing its heaviest ballistic barrages at the capital. Washington has promised to let Ukraine build its own interceptors, but that is years away.
Why it matters
Kyiv now has almost nothing to stop a ballistic missile, and the one plant that makes the interceptors can't keep pace with a single war.
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People Involved
Organizations Involved
Lockheed Martin builds the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement, the Patriot interceptor most effective against ballistic missiles.
RTX, formerly Raytheon, builds the Patriot launcher, radar, and the GEM-T interceptor.
Timeline
February 2026 August 2026
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Kyiv hit as interceptor stock runs dry
Today AttackRussia strikes Kyiv with about 35 missiles, including 27 ballistic, and roughly 185 drones. Zelensky says Ukraine downed one ballistic missile because Patriot interceptors are exhausted. At least nine to ten people are killed and dozens wounded.
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Wide Russian strike kills at least 10
AttackA major Russian barbage across Ukraine kills at least 10 people and injures more than 50, two days before the Kyiv strike.
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US signs $58.6 billion interceptor deal
ProcurementThe US Army awards Lockheed Martin a contract worth up to $58.6 billion to produce PAC-3 MSE interceptors through fiscal 2032 and triple capacity by 2030.
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Largest ballistic barrage on Kyiv so far
AttackRussia fires 25 ballistic missiles, 10 Zirkon hypersonic missiles, and 125 drones, mostly at Kyiv. Ukraine calls it the biggest ballistic attack on the capital since 2022. One person is killed.
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Trump pledges a production license
StatementAt the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump says the US will grant Ukraine a license to build Patriot interceptors. He notes Lockheed and RTX have not yet been informed.
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Iran war begins draining Patriot stocks
OriginOperation Epic Fury, the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, opens. Over about six weeks it burns through an estimated 1,060 to 1,430 Patriot interceptors, roughly 18 months of production.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
German V-weapons against London (1944-1945)
Germany fired more than 9,000 V-1 flying bombs and over 1,000 V-2 rockets at London and southern England. Anti-aircraft guns with proximity fuzes learned to knock down the slower V-1s. The V-2, a true ballistic missile, arrived faster than sound and could not be intercepted at all.
The V-2 killed thousands of civilians and could only be stopped by capturing or bombing its launch sites.
It proved that ballistic missiles beat the defenses of their era, a gap defenders have chased ever since.
Kyiv faces the same hard truth: ballistic missiles are the toughest threat to stop, and defense comes down to having enough interceptors ready.
Patriot vs. Scud in the Gulf War (1991)
During the Gulf War, US Patriot batteries fired at Iraqi Scud ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and Saudi Arabia. It was the Patriot's combat debut against ballistic threats. Later reviews questioned how many Scuds it actually destroyed.
The Patriot became a symbol of missile defense, though its real intercept rate was hotly disputed.
Decades of upgrades produced today's PAC-3 hit-to-kill interceptor, far more capable but costly and slow to build.
The Patriot now defending Kyiv descends from that 1991 system. Its problem today is not accuracy but supply: there are too few interceptors to go around.
Battle of Britain attrition (1940)
Britain's Royal Air Force defended against German air attacks through the summer of 1940. Victory hinged less on any single dogfight than on whether Britain could replace lost fighters and pilots faster than they were destroyed.
British aircraft factories out-produced their losses, keeping enough fighters in the air to hold.
It became the textbook case that air defense is a production and attrition contest, not just a technology one.
Ukraine's crisis is an attrition problem. When interceptors run out faster than factories can build them, the defense fails no matter how good the missile is.
