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Trump’s Belarus gambit: prisoners out, potash back in

Trump’s Belarus gambit: prisoners out, potash back in

Rule Changes
By Newzino Staff | |

A U.S. envoy’s sanctions promise tests whether Lukashenko will trade captives for cash—and how far Washington will go without Europe.

December 15th, 2025: OFAC publishes General License 13, lifting potash sanctions

Overview

A U.S. envoy went to Minsk to talk about prisoners—and walked out with both a promise and a delivery. After John Coale's December 2025 visit with Alexander Lukashenko, Treasury's OFAC published General License 13 on December 15, authorizing transactions with Belaruskali, Belarusian Potash Company, and Agrorozkvit—no expiration date. Belarus responded by freeing 123 political prisoners, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski and opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova, the regime's most valuable hostages.

The deal confirms the channel works, but reveals its limits. EU sanctions remain fully in place, forcing Belarus to export through Russian ports and rely on rail routes to China. Markets barely reacted—potash prices didn't spike, signaling traders see constrained upside. The opposition warns the regime is being paid for crimes it continues: even as 123 walked out, more than 1,200 remain inside, and arrests continue. Washington traded leverage for releases; whether it bought a thaw or just rented one depends on what Lukashenko does next.

Key Indicators

430+
Political prisoners released since mid-2024
A steady drip of releases became Minsk's main currency for détente.
1,200+
Estimated political prisoners still held
Rights monitors say the pipeline hasn't stopped, even after headline releases.
Up to 20%
Belarus's pre-sanctions global potash position
Belaruskali once sat near the top tier of world supply and pricing power.
$2B–$3B
Typical annual potash export value (pre-sanctions range)
Potash is one of Belarus's few truly global cash engines.
123
Prisoners freed in December 2025 exchange
Includes Nobel laureate Bialiatski and opposition leader Kolesnikova—the regime's most valuable bargaining chips.

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People Involved

John Coale
John Coale
U.S. special envoy for Belarus (Trump administration) (Formally nominated as U.S. special envoy to Belarus (November 2025); negotiated major prisoner-sanctions exchange)
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States (Driving a prisoner-first, dealmaking approach toward Belarus)
Alexander Lukashenko
Alexander Lukashenko
President of Belarus (Seeking sanctions relief while maintaining internal repression and ties to Russia)
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader (Backing prisoner releases but warning against rewarding Lukashenko)
Franak Viacorka
Franak Viacorka
Senior opposition figure and adviser to Tsikhanouskaya (Criticizing potash relief as strengthening repression)
Ales Bialiatski
Ales Bialiatski
Belarusian human-rights leader; 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate (Released December 2025 after years in detention)
Maria Kolesnikova
Maria Kolesnikova
Belarusian opposition leader (Released December 2025 after years in detention)
Viktor Babaryko
Viktor Babaryko
Former presidential candidate and banker (Released December 2025 after years in detention)

Organizations Involved

U.S. Treasury — Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
U.S. Treasury — Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
Treasury Department Office
Status: Controls the legal switch for any potash sanctions rollback

OFAC is the gatekeeper: until it publishes authorizations, markets can’t treat the envoy’s promise as real.

Belaruskali OAO
Belaruskali OAO
State-owned enterprise
Status: Core potash producer whose market access is shaped by sanctions

Belaruskali is the cash spigot—potash exports are Belarus’s most strategic non-oil revenue source.

Belarusian Potash Company (BPC)
Belarusian Potash Company (BPC)
State-linked trading/export entity
Status: Potash marketing channel targeted to disrupt exports

BPC is the export pipeline—hit the trader, and you choke the flow.

Council of the European Union
Council of the European Union
Supranational governing body
Status: Maintains major Belarus economic restrictions, including on potash

Europe’s sanctions are the heavier hammer—U.S. easing may not reopen EU markets.

Viasna Human Rights Centre
Viasna Human Rights Centre
Human rights organization
Status: Tracks political prisoners and documents ongoing repression

Viasna supplies the scoreboard—how many prisoners are still inside, and who keeps getting arrested.

Timeline

  1. OFAC publishes General License 13, lifting potash sanctions

    Rule Changes

    Treasury formally authorizes transactions with Belaruskali, Belarusian Potash Company, and Agrorozkvit with no expiration date. License does not unblock property or authorize transactions with other blocked persons.

  2. Belarus frees 123 political prisoners including Bialiatski and Kolesnikova

    Diplomacy

    Lukashenko pardons 123 prisoners in direct exchange for sanctions relief, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski and key opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova—the regime's highest-profile captives.

  3. Global potash markets show muted response to sanctions relief

    Market

    Potash producer shares barely moved; analysts cite EU sanctions still blocking Lithuanian ports and forcing reliance on Russian terminals and China rail routes as limiting commercial upside.

  4. Envoy says U.S. will lift potash sanctions

    Statement

    Coale announces potash relief; formal OFAC action is not yet publicly posted.

  5. Coale meets Lukashenko in Minsk

    Diplomacy

    Envoy presses for releases and explores broader bargain amid skepticism and EU constraints.

  6. Opposition warns against paying Lukashenko too cheaply

    Statement

    Tsikhanouskaya urges carrots and sticks as new prisoners are still being identified.

  7. Trump nominates John Coale as special envoy to Belarus

    Diplomacy

    Trump formally nominates Coale, citing success in negotiating release of over 100 'hostages' and aiming for 50 more. Move solidifies back-channel diplomacy toward Minsk.

  8. Large release follows earlier U.S. visit

    Diplomacy

    52 detainees moved into Lithuania after Minsk talks; U.S. eases airline sanctions.

  9. Treasury tightens sanctions again

    Rule Changes

    U.S. expands Belarus designations tied to repression and Russia support.

  10. Prisoner releases become Minsk’s bridge to the West

    Investigation

    Belarus starts freeing detainees at scale, hinting at a sanctions-for-prisoners channel.

  11. Ukraine war deepens Belarus isolation

    Force in Play

    Belarus supports Russia’s invasion posture, hardening Western sanctions logic.

  12. U.S. sanctions Belarus’s potash export machinery

    Rule Changes

    OFAC sanctions Belarusian Potash Company and expands the pressure campaign.

  13. U.S. targets Belaruskali and potash sector

    Rule Changes

    OFAC designates Belaruskali, making potash a sanctions centerpiece.

  14. EU hits Belarus economy, including potash

    Rule Changes

    EU restricts potash trade, tightening the revenue vise on Minsk.

  15. Belarus election sparks crackdown

    Force in Play

    Disputed vote triggers mass repression and sets the sanctions era in motion.

Scenarios

1

OFAC Publishes Potash Carveout After New Prisoner Release

Discussed by: Reuters and AP coverage; opposition commentary framing relief as tied to releases

Belarus delivers a headline release—either a big number or a few high-profile names—and Treasury follows with a clearly scoped authorization (general license or specific delisting moves) that reopens payments and shipping for potash under conditions. The U.S. sells it as humanitarian leverage that works; Lukashenko sells it as economic normalization. Europe keeps many restrictions, limiting the upside but not killing it.

2

The Potash Promise Stalls: No Paper, No Trade

Discussed by: Market skepticism reflected in wire reporting focus on missing OFAC notice

The envoy’s statement outruns the bureaucracy or the politics. OFAC doesn’t publish a usable authorization, or issues something so narrow that major banks and shippers still refuse exposure. Minsk blames Washington for “non-delivery,” slows releases, and the channel turns into mutual recrimination rather than détente.

3

Partial Deal: Limited Licenses, Tight Compliance, Quiet Payments

Discussed by: Sanctions watchers and compliance logic implied by prior wind-down and licensing precedents

Washington splits the difference: not a full rollback, but a set of time-limited or buyer-limited licenses that allow some potash flows while keeping key actors sanctioned. It creates room for a controlled test of Minsk’s behavior without betting the whole sanctions regime. Belarus gets incremental cash; the U.S. keeps a kill switch if arrests spike or releases stop.

4

Europe Slams the Door: EU Tightens While U.S. Tries to Open

Discussed by: Opposition statements and EU sanctions posture highlighted in reporting

Even if U.S. policy loosens, Brussels moves the other way—raising barriers through tariffs, transit pressure, or enforcement—so Belarus’s practical export options stay constrained. The result is a messy divergence: Washington claims progress, Minsk claims betrayal, and companies default to the safer interpretation—avoid Belarus anyway.

5

EU Holds the Line: Brussels Sanctions Block Commercial Normalization

Discussed by: Opposition statements emphasizing EU's systemic approach; market analysts noting continued export route constraints

Even with U.S. authorization in place, EU sanctions remain fully enforced, keeping Belarus cut off from Lithuanian ports and Western finance. Belaruskali can sell to U.S. buyers on paper, but logistics, insurance, and payments stay too risky for major flows. The result: symbolic U.S. gesture yields minimal revenue boost, and Minsk blames both Washington and Brussels for 'partial' relief that doesn't deliver cash at scale.

6

Releases Stop, Arrests Resume, U.S. Reverses Course

Discussed by: Opposition figures warning about continued arrests; historical precedent from Myanmar and Iran sanctions cycles

Lukashenko pockets the sanctions relief, then returns to business as usual: high-profile releases stop, new arrests refill prisons, and the political prisoner count climbs back toward earlier peaks. Washington faces domestic pressure to reimpose restrictions, OFAC issues a narrow carveout reversal or new designations, and the channel collapses into mutual recrimination—proving the opposition's warning that relief without structural change just finances repression.

Historical Context

Myanmar’s opening (2011–2016) and post-coup sanctions snapback

2011–2021

What Happened

The West eased sanctions as Myanmar released political prisoners and opened political space. Business and diplomacy surged, but reforms proved reversible.

Outcome

Short Term

Sanctions relief helped legitimize and finance a partial opening.

Long Term

After the 2021 coup, many sanctions returned—showing how quickly détente can collapse.

Why It's Relevant Today

Belarus risks the same pattern: relief now, repression later, and a whiplash return to sanctions.

U.S.–Iran prisoner deals paired with sanctions waivers

2016–2023

What Happened

Washington used sanctions waivers and financial mechanisms alongside prisoner releases, with fierce debate over ‘paying for hostages.’

Outcome

Short Term

Prisoners came home, but political blowback was immediate.

Long Term

Deals became precedents—future bargaining got easier, not harder.

Why It's Relevant Today

Belarus talks carry the same moral hazard: successful swaps can normalize the marketplace for captives.

Venezuela sanctions relief tied to political conditions

2019–2024

What Happened

Targeted sanctions relief was offered for electoral or political commitments, often with disputes over compliance and reversibility.

Outcome

Short Term

Temporary easing created economic openings and diplomatic momentum.

Long Term

Compliance disputes repeatedly threatened snapback and eroded trust.

Why It's Relevant Today

Belarus may see the same structure: conditional relief, contested compliance, and constant renegotiation.

22 Sources:
+16
Reuters Associated Press Council of the European Union U.S. Department of the Treasury OSW Centre for Eastern Studies The Moscow Times Office of Foreign Assets Control Baker McKenzie Global Sanctions Blog CNN Al Jazeera PBS NewsHour Mining.com Anadolu Agency Kyiv Post Reuters Reuters Associated Press U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department of the Treasury - OFAC The Moscow Times Kyiv Post