Overview
On December 13, a Syrian security officer allegedly affiliated with ISIS opened fire on US troops near Palmyra, killing two Iowa National Guard members and a civilian interpreter. Six days later, the US unleashed Operation Hawkeye Strike—100 precision munitions hitting 70 ISIS targets across central Syria with fighter jets, attack helicopters, and artillery. Jordan sent F-16s. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called it "a declaration of vengeance."
These were the first American combat deaths in Syria since 2019, and they've forced Trump's hand on a policy he's tried to finesse: withdraw troops while claiming victory over ISIS. The problem is ISIS still has 1,500 to 3,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq, and they just proved they can infiltrate the Syrian security forces America is now partnering with. The strikes are expected to last several weeks, but the fundamental question remains: can you bomb your way out of an insurgency when the enemy wears your ally's uniform?
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
CENTCOM oversees US military operations across 21 countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.
ISIS lost its territorial caliphate in 2019 but maintains 1,500-3,000 fighters conducting insurgency operations.
The Iowa National Guard provides trained units for domestic emergencies and federal missions.
Jordan's military is a key US partner in regional counter-terrorism operations.
Timeline
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Initial Assessment: ISIS Cells Effectively Dismantled
MilitarySurveillance drones monitoring Operation Hawkeye Strike impact sites show targeted ISIS cells effectively dismantled, though monitoring continues for regrouping attempts.
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Funeral Arrangements Announced
CeremonialIowa National Guard announces public funeral services: Howard on Dec. 27-28 in Marshalltown High School; Torres-Tovar on Dec. 28-29 in Des Moines.
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Remains of Fallen Iowa Guardsmen Return Home
CeremonialStaff Sgts. Howard and Torres-Tovar arrive at Des Moines International Airport via dignified transfer on Christmas Eve. Iowans line streets to pay respects.
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Fallen Soldiers Posthumously Promoted to Staff Sergeant
MilitaryIowa National Guard posthumously promotes Sgts. Torres-Tovar and Howard to Staff Sergeant 'in recognition of their service and sacrifice.'
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Campaign Expected to Last Weeks
StatementUS officials indicate Operation Hawkeye Strike will continue for several weeks to a month.
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Hegseth Announces 'Declaration of Vengeance'
StatementDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth frames operation as retaliation, not escalation: "This is not the beginning of a war — it is a declaration of vengeance."
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Operation Hawkeye Strike Launches
MilitaryUS and Jordan strike 70 ISIS targets with 100 munitions across central Syria using F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, Apaches, and HIMARS. At least 5 ISIS members killed, including drone cell leader.
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US-Partner Forces Conduct 10 Counter-ISIS Operations
MilitaryOperations across Syria and Iraq result in 23 terrorists killed or detained following Palmyra attack.
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Fallen Soldiers Officially Identified
StatementUS Army names Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, 25, and Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, both Iowa National Guard.
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Trump Vows Retaliation
StatementPresident Trump blames ISIS and promises "very serious retaliation" for the Palmyra attack.
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Palmyra Insider Attack Kills Three Americans
AttackSyrian security officer opens fire on US-Syrian patrol near Palmyra, killing Sgts. Torres-Tovar, Howard, and interpreter Sakat. Three Iowa Guardsmen wounded. Syrian forces kill gunman.
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Syrian Security Officer Flagged for Extremism
InvestigationSyria's Interior Ministry issues evaluation identifying security officer with "extremist ideas."
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Syrian President Visits White House
DiplomaticAhmed al-Sharaa meets Trump; Syria joins US-led anti-ISIS coalition as 90th member.
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US Establishes Communication with New Syrian Government
DiplomaticCENTCOM opens direct channels with Syria's Defense and Interior ministries for counter-ISIS coordination.
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Assad Regime Falls in Syria
PoliticalBashar al-Assad's government collapses; Ahmed al-Sharaa leads transitional government.
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ISIS Leader al-Baghdadi Killed
MilitaryUS raid in northern Syria kills Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who detonates suicide vest.
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ISIS Loses Last Territorial Stronghold
MilitarySyrian Democratic Forces capture Baghouz, ending ISIS territorial control after multi-year campaign.
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ISIS Declares Caliphate
Historical ContextISIS announces caliphate across Iraq and Syria, controlling territory with 8 million people.
Scenarios
ISIS Insurgency Suppressed, Gradual US Withdrawal Resumes
Discussed by: Defense analysts at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Carnegie Endowment, Breaking Defense
Operation Hawkeye Strike degrades ISIS capabilities enough to reduce attack tempo. Syria's new government proves capable of securing territory with limited US support. Trump gradually draws down troops from 900 to under 500 by mid-2026, maintaining one strategic base for counter-ISIS quick reaction. Syria continues intelligence sharing, preventing major attacks. This requires al-Sharaa's government to professionalize security vetting—no more attackers flagged for extremism three days before they kill Americans. Jordan and other regional partners absorb more of the security burden.
Insider Attacks Continue, US-Syria Partnership Collapses
Discussed by: CNN analysis, Modern War Institute scholars citing Afghanistan green-on-blue parallels
More insider attacks follow the Palmyra pattern—Syrian security forces infiltrated by ISIS sleeper cells. Each attack kills the political viability of partnering with Damascus. Trump faces public pressure to either withdraw completely or surge troops for force protection, destroying the "light footprint with local partners" model. Syria's transitional government, already fragile, can't root out ISIS infiltrators fast enough. By late 2026, the US either pulls out entirely (risking ISIS resurgence) or deploys thousands more troops for self-protection, abandoning the partnership approach.
Regional Coalition Replaces US as Primary Counter-ISIS Force
Discussed by: Think tank analysts at Washington Institute, Middle East Institute
Jordan's participation in Operation Hawkeye Strike signals growing regional ownership. Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Gulf states—all facing ISIS threats—formalize a counter-terrorism coalition with US air support and intelligence but minimal ground presence. Trump markets this as "America supporting our allies, not fighting their wars." US troop levels drop to 200-300 advisors by 2027. Success depends on whether Syria's government can maintain legitimacy, integrate former rebel groups, and prevent the chaos that let ISIS rise in the first place. Iraq's experience suggests this takes a decade, not years.
ISIS Resurgence Forces Prolonged US Presence
Discussed by: US Intelligence Community's March 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, counterterrorism experts at West Point's Combating Terrorism Center
ISIS exploits Syria's messy transition to rebuild. Attack lethality continues increasing—car bombs in Damascus, coordinated assaults on prisons holding 10,000 ISIS detainees, assassination campaigns against Syrian officials. The March 2025 intelligence assessment warned ISIS remains "the world's largest Islamic terrorist organization." A spectacular attack—prison break freeing hundreds of fighters, or a strike killing dozens of Americans—forces Trump to abandon withdrawal plans. By 2026, the US has 1,500+ troops back in Syria, essentially back to square one. The mission creeps from counter-ISIS to propping up Syria's government to prevent collapse.
Historical Context
Afghanistan Green-on-Blue Insider Attacks (2008-2017)
2008-2017What Happened
Afghan soldiers and police, some infiltrated by the Taliban, turned their weapons on US and NATO troops they were supposedly partnered with. At least 96 documented attacks killed 152 coalition troops and wounded 200 more. In 2012—the peak year—insider attacks caused 15% of all coalition deaths. The attacks devastated trust, forcing US troops to treat allies as threats. Coalition forces implemented "guardian angel" protocols—armed sentries watching Afghan partners during joint operations.
Outcome
Short term: Massive security protocols slowed training, partner operations became riskier than solo missions, eroding the entire partnership model.
Long term: Taliban understood insider attacks achieved strategic effect beyond body count—they made the US-Afghan partnership psychologically unsustainable, accelerating withdrawal.
Why It's Relevant
The Palmyra attack follows the exact pattern: local security forces vetted and armed by the US, infiltrated by insurgents, turning weapons on American troops. If this becomes a pattern in Syria as it was in Afghanistan, the partnership with al-Sharaa's government becomes untenable regardless of how many airstrikes the US launches.
1998 Embassy Bombings and Operation Infinite Reach
August 1998What Happened
Al-Qaeda bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania simultaneously, killing 224 people including 12 Americans. Two weeks later, President Clinton launched cruise missile strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan—66 missiles at bin Laden's training camps, 13 at a Sudanese pharmaceutical plant. Neither bin Laden nor his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri were hit. The strikes destroyed some infrastructure but did little to degrade al-Qaeda's network.
Outcome
Short term: Retaliation satisfied domestic political pressure but failed to prevent future attacks—three years later came 9/11.
Long term: Demonstrated the limits of standoff strikes against decentralized terrorist networks. You can't missile your way to victory against an ideology.
Why It's Relevant
Operation Hawkeye Strike uses overwhelming firepower against ISIS infrastructure—70 targets, 100 munitions. History suggests this degrades tactical capabilities temporarily but doesn't solve the strategic problem: ISIS is an insurgency embedded in local populations. Without effective local partners who can hold territory and prevent infiltration, the US faces an endless cycle of strike-regroup-strike.
ISIS Territorial Defeat and Insurgent Resurgence (2019-2025)
2019-2025What Happened
In March 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces captured Baghouz, ISIS's last territorial stronghold, formally ending the caliphate. The US declared victory. Intelligence estimated 14,000 ISIS fighters remained, many blending into local populations. By 2024, ISIS had claimed nearly 700 attacks in Syria—triple the 2023 number. Attack lethality increased through 2025 despite reduced frequency. The group went from holding cities to conducting guerrilla warfare, assassinations, and infiltrating security forces.
Outcome
Short term: Defeating ISIS territorially was real but incomplete—the organization adapted to insurgency rather than disappearing.
Long term: Six years after "defeating the caliphate," ISIS still maintains 1,500-3,000 fighters and can kill Americans in Syria, proving territorial defeat isn't the same as organizational defeat.
Why It's Relevant
The December 2025 Palmyra attack and Operation Hawkeye Strike are symptoms of this incomplete victory. The fundamental question remains unanswered: if you couldn't finish ISIS with 2,000 troops and massive air campaigns from 2014-2019, how do you finish it with 900 troops and episodic strikes in 2025? The historical pattern suggests ISIS will outlast American attention spans unless something structurally changes in Syria's governance.