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The Venezuela Raid and Congressional War Powers

The Venezuela Raid and Congressional War Powers

A Military Strike, a Senate Tie, and the Question of Who Authorizes War

Today: Vance Breaks Tie, Resolution Defeated

Overview

Congress last declared war in 1942. Since then, presidents have ordered military strikes 212 times without formal declarations—but never quite like this. On January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces raided the Venezuelan capital, captured President Nicolás Maduro in his residence, and flew him to New York to face narcoterrorism charges. Eleven days later, Vice President JD Vance cast the deciding vote to kill a Senate resolution that would have required congressional authorization for further military action.

The vote establishes that the executive can conduct regime-change operations in sovereign nations without prior congressional approval—and, with enough pressure on wavering senators, without meaningful after-the-fact constraints. Three Republican senators held firm against the White House; two others folded after personal calls from Trump and a letter from Secretary of State Marco Rubio promising no ground troops. The question now is whether Venezuela stabilizes under its new interim leader or becomes the next quagmire—and whether Congress has permanently ceded its war powers to the presidency.

Key Indicators

50-50
Senate tie broken by Vance
First vice presidential tie-breaker on a war powers resolution since the 1973 law's passage
2
GOP senators who flipped
Hawley and Young reversed positions after White House pressure campaign
100+
Killed in Caracas raid
Venezuelan officials report over 100 dead including 32 Cubans; Pentagon confirms 7 U.S. troops injured
11
Days from raid to Senate defeat
Congress had less than two weeks to respond before the resolution was killed

People Involved

J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
Vice President of the United States (Cast deciding vote against war powers resolution)
Nicolás Maduro Moros
Nicolás Maduro Moros
Former President of Venezuela (detained) (Held in U.S. custody, facing narcoterrorism charges)
Tim Kaine
Tim Kaine
U.S. Senator (D-VA), Resolution Sponsor (Led failed effort to require congressional authorization)
Rand Paul
Rand Paul
U.S. Senator (R-KY) (Voted against administration despite White House pressure)
Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley
U.S. Senator (R-MO) (Flipped vote after Rubio letter)
Todd Young
Todd Young
U.S. Senator (R-IN) (Flipped vote after White House assurances)
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State (Key administration negotiator with Senate)
Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez
Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez
Acting President of Venezuela (Sworn in January 5, negotiating with Washington)
María Corina Machado
María Corina Machado
Venezuelan Opposition Leader (In exile, planning return to Venezuela)

Organizations Involved

United States Senate
United States Senate
Legislative Body
Status: Defeated war powers resolution 50-51

The upper chamber of Congress, which holds constitutional authority to declare war and authorize military force.

U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
Military Command
Status: Conducted Operation Absolute Resolve

The unified combatant command responsible for U.S. military operations in Central and South America and the Caribbean.

Timeline

  1. Vance Breaks Tie, Resolution Defeated

    Congressional

    After Hawley and Young reverse positions, Vice President Vance casts deciding vote to kill war powers resolution. Collins, Murkowski, and Paul maintain opposition to administration.

  2. Rubio Sends Assurance Letter to Senate

    Diplomacy

    Secretary of State Rubio sends letter to Senate Foreign Relations chairman stating no U.S. troops are in Venezuela and promising congressional consultation before major operations.

  3. Senate Advances War Powers Resolution

    Congressional

    Resolution passes 52-47 with five Republicans—Hawley, Young, Collins, Murkowski, and Paul—voting with Democrats. Trump attacks all five on social media, calling them 'real losers.'

  4. Rodríguez Releases Political Prisoners

    Diplomacy

    Acting President Rodríguez releases nine foreign and Venezuelan political prisoners. Trump cancels planned second wave of strikes.

  5. Maduro Arraigned; Rodríguez Sworn In

    Legal

    Maduro and Flores plead not guilty in Manhattan federal court. Venezuela's Vice President Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as acting president by the National Assembly.

  6. Kaine and Paul File War Powers Resolution

    Congressional

    Senators Tim Kaine and Rand Paul introduce resolution to block U.S. military action in Venezuela without congressional authorization.

  7. Operation Absolute Resolve Begins

    Military

    Over 200 U.S. special forces strike Caracas. Delta Force operators capture Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores at Fuerte Tiuna military complex in 30-minute ground operation. Over 100 killed including 32 Cubans; 7 U.S. troops injured.

  8. Maduro Rejects Final Ultimatum

    Diplomacy

    Trump calls Maduro directly, offering him exile in Turkey. Maduro refuses. Trump announces U.S. military will conduct strikes inside Venezuela.

  9. Trump Approves Caracas Raid

    Executive Action

    Trump gives final approval for Operation Absolute Resolve. Troops had been training with a model of Maduro's compound for months.

  10. Trump Declares 'Armed Conflict' with Cartels

    Executive Action

    Trump issues memo declaring drug cartels unlawful combatants and announces CIA authorization for covert operations inside Venezuela.

  11. SOUTHCOM Begins Caribbean Strikes

    Military

    U.S. Southern Command conducts strikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea, alleging some are trafficking drugs on behalf of Venezuela.

  12. Trump Signs Secret Military Directive

    Executive Action

    Trump authorizes Pentagon to use military force against Latin American drug cartels and doubles Maduro bounty to $50 million. CIA deploys small unit to Venezuela for intelligence gathering.

  13. Maduro Indicted on Narcoterrorism Charges

    Legal

    U.S. Department of Justice unseals indictment charging Maduro with leading the 'Cartel of the Suns' to traffic cocaine. State Department offers $15 million reward for his arrest.

Scenarios

1

Rodríguez Consolidates Power, Cuts Deal with Washington

Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Council on Foreign Relations analysts

Acting President Rodríguez continues releasing prisoners and making conciliatory gestures to avoid further U.S. strikes. The Trump administration, preferring stability over democratic transition, accepts a Chavista government without Maduro. No free elections occur; Venezuela remains authoritarian but cooperative on U.S. priorities. Opposition leader Machado remains sidelined abroad.

2

Democratic Transition After Supervised Elections

Discussed by: Venezuelan opposition, some Latin America analysts at Stanford FSI

International pressure and U.S. leverage force Rodríguez to accept monitored elections. Opposition unifies behind Machado or Edmundo González. A reformist government takes power, opens Venezuela to investment, and begins prosecuting former regime officials. This requires the military to accept civilian oversight—historically unlikely without sustained external pressure.

3

Prolonged Instability and U.S. Entanglement

Discussed by: Brookings Institution, Foreign Affairs, historical comparisons to Iraq

Maduro's removal weakens Chavismo but doesn't eliminate its networks in the military, bureaucracy, and barrios. The opposition remains divided. Venezuela lurches into factional conflict while the U.S. maintains a naval blockade and periodic strikes. A drawn-out engagement drains resources and attention heading into the 2026 midterms.

4

Maduro Convicted, Serves as Deterrent Example

Discussed by: DOJ prosecutors, administration officials

Maduro's narcoterrorism trial proceeds in Manhattan. Prosecutors present evidence of cocaine trafficking and money laundering. A conviction sends a message to other authoritarian leaders that U.S. indictments carry real consequences—but also raises questions about whether military abduction is a legitimate law enforcement tool.

Historical Context

Panama Invasion and Noriega Capture (1989)

December 1989 - January 1990

What Happened

President George H.W. Bush ordered 27,000 troops to invade Panama and capture Manuel Noriega, who had been indicted on drug trafficking charges in 1988. Operation Just Cause killed 23 U.S. soldiers and between 200 and 4,000 Panamanians. Noriega surrendered after sheltering in the Vatican embassy for 10 days.

Outcome

Short Term

Noriega was brought to Miami, tried, and convicted on drug charges in 1992. He spent 17 years in U.S. prison before extradition to France, then Panama.

Long Term

Panama transitioned to democracy and has remained stable. The invasion established precedent for using military force to enforce U.S. criminal indictments against foreign leaders.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Venezuela operation explicitly echoes Panama: a drug indictment as legal justification, regime decapitation as strategy, no prior congressional authorization. Both Bush and Trump notified Congress after operations were underway.

Libya Intervention and War Powers Controversy (2011)

March - October 2011

What Happened

President Obama ordered U.S. forces to join NATO airstrikes in Libya without congressional authorization. When the 60-day War Powers Resolution deadline passed in May 2011, the administration argued the operation didn't constitute 'hostilities' requiring authorization because there were no ground troops and low risk to U.S. personnel.

Outcome

Short Term

The House voted to rebuke Obama but took no further action. Muammar Gaddafi was killed by rebels in October 2011.

Long Term

Libya collapsed into civil war lasting over a decade. The administration's creative interpretation of 'hostilities' expanded executive war-making authority.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Libya precedent—that air operations and regime change don't require congressional authorization if casualties are low—underlies the Trump administration's legal position on Venezuela.

Kosovo Bombing Campaign (1999)

March - June 1999

What Happened

President Clinton ordered a 78-day NATO bombing campaign against Serbia without congressional authorization. The operation continued past the 60-day War Powers deadline. The Clinton legal team argued that congressional funding for the operation constituted implicit authorization.

Outcome

Short Term

Serbian forces withdrew from Kosovo, which came under UN administration. No U.S. ground troops were deployed.

Long Term

The funding-as-authorization theory remained controversial but was never judicially tested. Kosovo declared independence in 2008.

Why It's Relevant Today

Kosovo established that extended bombing campaigns can proceed without explicit congressional authorization, particularly when Congress funds the operation. The Venezuela blockade and potential continued strikes may follow this pattern.

15 Sources:
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ABC News Al Jazeera NPR CNN CBS News The Hill The Washington Post NBC News Wikipedia Council on Foreign Relations International Crisis Group Office of Senator Tim Kaine U.S. Department of Justice Wikipedia Wikipedia