Overview
Delta Force dragged Nicolás Maduro from his bedroom at 2 AM on January 3, threw him on a helicopter, and flew him to the USS Iwo Jima bound for Manhattan. The Venezuelan president now faces narco-terrorism charges in the same courthouse that convicted El Chapo. His wife Cilia Flores—indicted for the first time—sits in the cell next to him.
This wasn't a snap decision. Maduro stole Venezuela's July 2024 election, Trump launched Operation Southern Spear killing 107 people on suspected drug boats, and the State Department designated Maduro's Cartel de los Soles a terrorist organization. When Venezuela detained five Americans in December, Trump green-lit the raid. Now the world's watching whether a narco-dictator gets convicted in U.S. court—or whether this invasion ignites a regional crisis.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
A narco-trafficking network embedded in Venezuela's Armed Forces, named for the sun epaulettes worn by high-ranking officers.
A transnational gang born in Venezuela's Tocorón prison, now operating across Latin America and the U.S.
The Manhattan federal court that prosecuted El Chapo, now taking on a sitting head of state.
Federal jail in Brooklyn where high-profile defendants await trial in Manhattan federal court.
Timeline
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U.S. Strikes Venezuela, Delta Force Raids
MilitarySeven explosions in Caracas; special forces extract Maduro and Flores from bedroom.
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Trump Announces Maduro Capture
StatementPresident posts on Truth Social that Maduro and wife captured, flown out of country.
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DOJ Unseals New Indictment
LegalBondi announces SDNY charges against Maduro, Flores, and four others on narco-terrorism.
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Venezuela Demands Proof of Life
StatementVP Delcy Rodríguez says government doesn't know Maduro's whereabouts, demands evidence.
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Trump Approves Operation Absolute Resolve
MilitaryPresident Trump gives final approval for Delta Force raid involving 150+ aircraft from 20 bases.
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Maduro Arrives at Stewart Airport, New York
LegalFBI and DEA officers receive Maduro and Flores at Stewart International Airport. Transferred to MDC Brooklyn detention facility.
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Trump: U.S. Will 'Run Venezuela' Until Transition
PoliticalTrump announces U.S. will govern Venezuela temporarily, control oil production, designate transition officials.
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International Condemnation of U.S. Action
PoliticalBrazil, Colombia, Mexico, Russia, China, France, Spain condemn strikes. UN Secretary-General calls action 'dangerous precedent.'
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González Called to Assume Presidency
PoliticalMaría Corina Machado calls for Edmundo González to assume constitutional mandate; González says he's 'ready to rebuild.' France and Argentina express support.
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Venezuelan Casualties Confirmed
MilitaryVenezuelan Defense Minister confirms civilian and military casualties from U.S. strikes; exact numbers still being counted.
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U.S. Forces Injured in Helicopter Attack
MilitaryTrump confirms some U.S. troops injured when helicopter took fire during raid; no Americans killed.
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Venezuela Detains Five Americans
PoliticalCNN reports Maduro regime holding Americans as leverage against U.S. pressure campaign.
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CIA Drone Strike on Venezuelan Facility
MilitaryFirst land target hit—marine facility allegedly used for loading drug boats.
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Cartel de los Soles Designated FTO
LegalState Department labels Maduro's network a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
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Operation Southern Spear Formally Named
MilitaryDefense Secretary Hegseth announces campaign name; 15,000 U.S. personnel now in region.
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First Caribbean Airstrike
MilitaryTrump announces Navy killed 11 Tren de Aragua members on Venezuelan drug boat.
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Trump Orders Warships to Venezuela
MilitaryThree Navy vessels deployed to South American coast, beginning Operation Southern Spear buildup.
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U.S. Recognizes González as President-Elect
PoliticalBiden administration declares González legitimate winner of July election.
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González Flees to Spain
PoliticalOpposition leader seeks asylum in Spanish embassy, then exile in Madrid.
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Arrest Warrant Issued for González
PoliticalMaduro regime charges opposition leader with usurpation of functions and conspiracy.
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Venezuela Presidential Election Held
PoliticalEdmundo González wins by landslide; Maduro's electoral council declares him winner without evidence.
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First Maduro Indictment Unsealed
LegalSDNY charges Maduro and 14 Venezuelan officials with narco-terrorism, offering $15M reward.
Scenarios
Maduro Convicted, Dies in U.S. Prison
Discussed by: Legal analysts comparing to El Chapo prosecution, neoconservative foreign policy voices
SDNY has home-field advantage and a strong track record on narco-terrorism cases—they convicted El Chapo in 2019 on similar charges. If prosecutors present evidence of Maduro directing cocaine shipments and collaborating with FARC and Tren de Aragua, and if the jury views him as a drug kingpin rather than a head of state, conviction is likely. He'd face life in prison. Trump officials are treating this as a drug case, not a political prosecution, which helps frame it for an American jury. Biggest risk: international pressure and legal challenges over jurisdiction.
Case Collapses on Jurisdictional Grounds
Discussed by: International law experts, UN officials, critics of intervention
Capturing a sitting head of state from his own country has zero modern precedent. The UN Special Rapporteur called it an "illegal abduction." If defense argues Maduro has head-of-state immunity and that the U.S. violated the UN Charter by invading Venezuela, federal courts could dismiss the case or delay it indefinitely. Even if the trial proceeds, appellate courts might overturn a conviction. This would humiliate the Trump administration and embolden authoritarians globally. The Justice Department will argue the FTO designation and narco-terrorism statutes override immunity, but it's legally untested territory.
Regional Conflict Erupts, U.S. Occupies Venezuela
Discussed by: Military analysts, Latin American governments condemning the strikes, anti-interventionist commentators
Venezuela's military infrastructure was bombed, its president kidnapped, and government officials killed. If the regime collapses into chaos—with military factions fighting for control or Colombian militias crossing the border—Trump could send ground troops to "stabilize" the country and install Edmundo González. Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia have condemned the invasion; Russia and Iran called it aggression. If Venezuela's military retaliates against U.S. assets or American personnel, this becomes a prolonged occupation. The Maduro trial becomes a sideshow to a much larger regional crisis.
González Installed, Maduro Extradited to Third Country
Discussed by: Venezuelan opposition figures, diplomatic observers watching European and Latin American reactions
If the U.S. recognizes that trying Maduro creates more problems than it solves, they could broker a deal: drop charges in exchange for González taking power and Maduro accepting exile in a neutral country (Russia, Cuba, Nicaragua). This gives Trump a political win—regime change achieved—without the legal nightmare of prosecuting a head of state. Venezuela's opposition gets what it wants. Maduro avoids prison. The catch: domestic political backlash from Trump supporters who want to see him convicted, and risk that Maduro becomes a symbol of resistance in exile.
U.S. Occupation Sparks Venezuela Civil War
Discussed by: International law experts, Latin American governments, anti-war analysts
Trump's declaration that the U.S. will 'run Venezuela' until transition—combined with controlling oil production—suggests prolonged occupation. With Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Russia, and China condemning the invasion, Venezuelan military factions could fracture between those cooperating with the U.S. and those resisting. If armed groups like Tren de Aragua or pro-Maduro militias launch insurgency against U.S.-installed governance, this becomes Iraq 2.0—an endless counterinsurgency with American troops holding territory while casualties mount. The arrest becomes irrelevant compared to the occupation crisis.
González Installed, Region Remains Unstable
Discussed by: Venezuelan opposition figures, diplomatic observers, France and Argentina officials
If the U.S. transitions power to Edmundo González as recognized president-elect, Venezuela's opposition finally takes office—but governing a collapsed state with hollowed institutions, armed gangs, and 7 million refugees abroad will be overwhelming. González has no executive experience and faces immediate challenges: restoring oil production, repatriating refugees, demobilizing militias, and negotiating with hostile neighbors who condemned the invasion. Even if Maduro is convicted in New York, Venezuela remains fractured. Success depends on massive international aid and regional cooperation—neither guaranteed given how the U.S. acted unilaterally.
Historical Context
Manuel Noriega and the Panama Invasion (1989-1990)
December 1989 - January 1990What Happened
Panamanian military dictator Manuel Noriega was indicted by U.S. federal courts in 1988 on drug trafficking and racketeering charges. President George H.W. Bush launched Operation Just Cause on December 20, 1989—the largest U.S. military action since Vietnam—deploying 27,000 troops and 300 aircraft. Noriega evaded capture for days, hiding in the Vatican embassy while U.S. forces blasted rock music outside. He surrendered on January 3, 1990.
Outcome
Short term: Noriega was brought to Miami, tried in federal court, and convicted in 1992 on eight counts of drug trafficking, racketeering, and money laundering—the first foreign leader convicted by a U.S. jury.
Long term: Noriega served 17 years in U.S. prison. Panama transitioned to democracy. But the invasion killed hundreds of Panamanian civilians, and Latin American nations condemned it as imperialism. The precedent: the U.S. will invade to arrest drug-trafficking leaders.
Why It's Relevant
Maduro's capture happened exactly 36 years to the day after Noriega's surrender. Both were military strongmen indicted on drug charges, both captured via U.S. invasion. The difference: Noriega ran a small country with minimal geopolitical clout. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, deep ties to Russia and China, and 7 million refugees who fled Maduro's regime now living across the Americas. The stakes are exponentially higher.
Saddam Hussein Capture (2003)
March 2003 - December 2003What Happened
The U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003, toppling Saddam Hussein's government within weeks. Saddam went into hiding. U.S. forces found him in December 2003 hiding in a underground "spider hole" near Tikrit. He was handed to Iraqi authorities, tried by an Iraqi tribunal for crimes against humanity, and hanged in 2006.
Outcome
Short term: Saddam was executed, but Iraq descended into sectarian civil war. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (later ISIS) filled the power vacuum.
Long term: The Iraq War killed hundreds of thousands, cost trillions, destabilized the Middle East, and is widely viewed as a foreign policy disaster. Saddam's capture didn't bring stability—it revealed the limits of regime change.
Why It's Relevant
Like Saddam, Maduro was a dictator accused of threatening U.S. interests and removed by military force. The lesson: capturing the leader doesn't solve the crisis. Venezuela's institutions are hollowed out, its economy collapsed, and armed groups like Tren de Aragua have metastasized across the hemisphere. Who governs Venezuela after Maduro? Can the opposition restore order? Or does this become another endless quagmire?
El Chapo Trial (2018-2019)
November 2018 - February 2019What Happened
Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, head of the Sinaloa Cartel, was extradited to the U.S. and tried in the Southern District of New York. Prosecutors presented evidence he smuggled tons of cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine into the U.S. over decades, ordering murders and bribing Mexican officials. The trial was a spectacle—cartel operatives testified, detailing drug tunnels and submarine smuggling.
Outcome
Short term: El Chapo was convicted on all counts in February 2019 and sentenced to life in prison plus 30 years. He's serving time in ADX Florence supermax prison in Colorado.
Long term: The Sinaloa Cartel didn't collapse—it fractured and continued operating. El Chapo's sons took over. The trial didn't stop drug trafficking; it just removed one leader.
Why It's Relevant
Maduro faces trial in the same courthouse, before the same prosecutors, on overlapping charges. If SDNY can prove Maduro conspired with the Sinaloa Cartel and FARC to import cocaine, they'll use the El Chapo playbook: cooperating witnesses, intercepted communications, financial records. The difference: El Chapo was a cartel boss. Maduro was a head of state. The trial will test whether American courts can judge a foreign leader the same way they judged a drug lord.