Hezbollah

Force in Play

Rejected the June 3 conditional ceasefire; continues attacks against IDF in southern Lebanon and into northern Israel; demands full Israeli withdrawal before any ceasefire agreement

The June 2–3 State Department talks produced a conditional ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah must halt all attacks and withdraw its operatives from south of the Litani River; both sides also agreed on pilot zones where the Lebanese Armed Forces take exclusive control of designated territory. Hezbollah rejected the terms within hours, with Naim Qassem calling the deal 'a roadmap to annihilate part of the Lebanese people' and demanding a full Israeli withdrawal first.

Updated 3 days ago

Force in Play

Militarily degraded but re-engaged in combat with Israel

Iran has stationed diplomats, intelligence officers, and Revolutionary Guard operatives in Lebanon for more than four decades, building Hezbollah into the most powerful non-state military force in the Middle East. On March 24, 2026, Lebanon's foreign ministry told Iran's newly appointed ambassador-designate to leave the country within five days — the first time Beirut has ever expelled an Iranian envoy.

Updated May 30

Force in Play

Actively fighting Israel; rejected Lebanese government disarmament orders; continuing escalatory attacks

Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon, launched March 1, has systematically destroyed Litani River bridges. Strikes on April 4 targeted the Sohmor and Mashghara connections in eastern Lebanon.

Updated May 30

Force in Play

Lebanon front active; strained by IRGC navy/missile losses

Three U.S. carrier strike groups deployed: USS Abraham Lincoln (Arabian Sea since January 2026), USS Gerald R. Ford (Mediterranean), and USS George H.W. Bush. This triple-carrier presence responded to Iran's crackdown on December 2025 protests.

Updated May 24

Force in Play

Partially disarmed south of Litani, resisting further disarmament

Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire on November 27, 2024, ending a year of cross-border war that killed nearly 4,000 Lebanese and displaced 1.4 million people. Fifteen months later, Israel had conducted over 10,500 documented violations, including 7,500 airspace violations and more than 3,000 ground and air strikes, killing over 450 people. On February 21, 2026, strikes hit the Bekaa Valley near Baalbek, killing at least 10 (eight Hezbollah operatives and three children), while a separate strike on Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp killed two Hamas operatives.

Updated May 21

Force in Play

Weakened but resisting disarmament

On January 8, 2026, Lebanon's military announced it had completed phase one of disarming Hezbollah and other militias south of the Litani River, bringing weapons under state control for the first time in 40 years. Over 9,000 soldiers swept the region devastated by the 2024 war (4,000 killed, 1.3 million displaced), clearing ordnance and tunnels. Hours later, Iran's foreign minister arrived for talks; the next day, Israel resumed strikes while occupying five hilltops—business as usual despite the milestone.

Updated May 19