Israel has not sent a full ground force into Lebanon since 2006. That is about to change. Israeli officials disclosed plans on March 14 to seize the entire area south of the Litani River—roughly 850 square kilometers of southern Lebanon—using three armored and infantry divisions already positioned on the border. Limited incursions into towns like Kfar Kila and Khiam are already underway.
Israel has not sent a full ground force into Lebanon since 2006. That is about to change. Israeli officials disclosed plans on March 14 to seize the entire area south of the Litani River—roughly 850 square kilometers of southern Lebanon—using three armored and infantry divisions already positioned on the border. Limited incursions into towns like Kfar Kila and Khiam are already underway.
The expansion was triggered by a coordinated Hezbollah-Iran barrage of over 200 missiles on March 11, which Israeli officials say made a ceasefire impossible. The operation unfolds against the backdrop of the broader US-Israel military campaign against Iran that began on February 28, when strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah formally rejoined the war on March 2, collapsing a November 2024 ceasefire that was already fraying. More than 680 people have been killed in Lebanon in under two weeks, and roughly 750,000 civilians have fled their homes.
Israel reveals plans for largest ground invasion of Lebanon since 2006
Military
Israeli officials disclosed plans for a massive ground invasion to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure, using three divisions already positioned on the border.
Israel destroys Litani River bridge; IDF chief says campaign 'will not be short'
Military
The IDF struck the Zrarieh Bridge over the Litani River, the first acknowledged strike on civilian infrastructure in the current offensive. IDF Chief Zamir declared Lebanon a co-equal front with Iran and warned of a prolonged campaign.
Hezbollah and Iran launch coordinated 200-missile barrage on Israel
Military
Hezbollah fired approximately 200 rockets at northern Israel while Iran simultaneously launched ballistic missiles at central, northern, and southern Israel. Israeli air defenses intercepted the Iranian missiles; two Israelis were lightly injured by Hezbollah fire.
Lebanon asks the US for direct peace talks with Israel
Diplomatic
The Lebanese government proposed direct negotiations with Israel through Washington, offering talks without preconditions. Trump adviser Massad Boulos was tasked with facilitating.
Mojtaba Khamenei elected Iran's new supreme leader
Political
Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba was elected to replace his father as Iran's supreme leader, inheriting a country under active military assault.
Israel orders troops to seize new positions inside Lebanon
Military
Defense Minister Katz, with Netanyahu's approval, ordered the IDF to expand beyond its five ceasefire positions and enter additional strategic locations in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah formally re-enters war with strikes on Israel
Military
In response to the killing of Khamenei, Hezbollah launched strikes on Israel, formally breaking the November 2024 ceasefire and opening a second front in the broader US-Israel war on Iran.
US and Israel launch strikes on Iran; Khamenei killed
Military
US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Iranian military infrastructure and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed along with several family members.
US extends ceasefire deadline; Israel retains five forward positions
Diplomatic
The United States extended the ceasefire agreement to February 18. Israel withdrew from populated areas but declared it would remain in five strategic positions along the border.
Joseph Aoun elected president of Lebanon
Political
The former Lebanese Armed Forces commander won the presidency with broad domestic and international backing, taking on the task of enforcing Hezbollah disarmament.
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement takes effect
Diplomatic
A US-brokered ceasefire required a 60-day halt to hostilities, Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River, and deployment of 5,000 Lebanese troops. A five-country monitoring panel was established.
Israel kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Military
An Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who had led the organization for 32 years, along with several senior commanders.
Scenarios
1
Israel seizes southern Lebanon, Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani
Discussed by: Israeli defense officials, Washington Institute for Near East Policy analysts
Israel's three divisions push through southern Lebanon within weeks, taking advantage of Hezbollah's degraded command structure and the loss of many of its senior and mid-level commanders since September 2024. Hezbollah withdraws its remaining forces north of the Litani rather than risk annihilation in a fixed battle. Israel establishes a buffer zone but faces the question of occupation duration—the same dilemma that produced an 18-year presence after 1982. The Trump administration pushes for direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations to convert military gains into a formal peace agreement.
2
Ground invasion bogs down in guerrilla warfare, casualties mount
Discussed by: Al Jazeera analysts, Atlantic Council, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Hezbollah follows the playbook that stymied Israel in 2006: dispersed fighters, tunnel networks, anti-tank missiles, and close-quarters combat in built-up areas. Israeli casualties mount while the military struggles to hold cleared ground. International pressure grows as civilian deaths rise and the humanitarian crisis worsens. The IDF, already stretched across the Iran front, finds itself in the protracted war Chief of Staff Zamir warned about, without a clear exit strategy. Haaretz has reported that the government has "no plan for Lebanon" beyond the military operation.
3
Diplomatic intervention produces ceasefire before full invasion launches
Discussed by: Lebanese government officials, Massad Boulos via Axios, NPR reporting on Lebanese peace overtures
The Lebanese government's offer of unconditional direct talks gains traction as international alarm grows. Massad Boulos brokers a framework that combines an immediate ceasefire with a strengthened Lebanese army deployment and a timeline for Hezbollah disarmament backed by international guarantees. Israel accepts, calculating that diplomatic gains may outlast military ones—particularly the possibility of formally ending the state of war between Israel and Lebanon that has existed since 1948. This scenario requires Hezbollah to accept terms it has so far rejected.
4
Conflict escalates into full-scale regional war across multiple fronts
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, ACLED conflict analysis, UN Security Council briefings
The ground invasion triggers an escalation spiral: Iran increases its missile strikes on Israel, Hezbollah activates deeper cells and longer-range weapons, and the conflict draws in additional actors. UNIFIL peacekeepers, already under threat, face direct harm. The simultaneous demands of the Iran war and a Lebanon ground campaign stretch Israeli military resources to their limit. The conflict destabilizes Lebanon's fragile state institutions further, potentially collapsing the Lebanese government that both Washington and Riyadh invested in supporting.
Historical Context
Operation Litani (1978)
March 1978
What Happened
Israel sent 25,000 troops into southern Lebanon to push the Palestine Liberation Organization away from its border—the exact same geographic objective as the 2026 plan. The operation followed the PLO's Coastal Road massacre, in which militants killed 38 Israeli civilians. Israeli forces seized territory up to the Litani River within days.
Outcome
Short Term
The PLO was pushed north of the Litani, and Israel established an allied militia, the South Lebanon Army, to hold the buffer zone. The UN deployed UNIFIL peacekeepers, who remain in the area 48 years later.
Long Term
The PLO resumed attacks from deeper inside Lebanon, and Israel invaded again in 1982 with far more ambitious goals. The buffer zone strategy bought time but did not resolve the underlying threat.
Why It's Relevant Today
Israel's 2026 plan mirrors Operation Litani's geographic scope almost exactly—seize everything south of the Litani. The 1978 experience shows that holding territory temporarily did not prevent the threat from reconstituting further north.
Operation Peace for Galilee / First Lebanon War (1982)
June 1982 – June 1985
What Happened
Israel invaded Lebanon with the aim of destroying the PLO, installing a friendly government, and securing its northern border. The operation expanded far beyond its initial scope, reaching Beirut. Israeli forces besieged the capital for two months before the PLO evacuated. An estimated 18,000–19,000 people were killed, most of them civilians.
Outcome
Short Term
The PLO was expelled from Lebanon, and Israel's preferred candidate, Bashir Gemayel, was elected president—then assassinated weeks later, unraveling Israel's political strategy.
Long Term
Israel created a 9-mile security zone in southern Lebanon and did not fully withdraw until 2000—an 18-year occupation. The invasion also catalyzed the creation of Hezbollah itself, backed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 1982 war is the cautionary template: a limited operation that expanded, achieved its immediate military objective, but generated an occupation and ultimately created the very adversary Israel now seeks to destroy.
Second Lebanon War (2006)
July–August 2006
What Happened
After Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid, Israel launched a 33-day war combining airstrikes and a ground invasion. Israeli forces struggled less than a mile into Lebanese territory, bogged down by Hezbollah's tunnel networks, anti-tank missiles, and guerrilla tactics. Over 1,100 people in Lebanon and 165 Israelis were killed.
Outcome
Short Term
The Israeli government-appointed Winograd Commission concluded Israel had "initiated a long war which ended without its clear military victory." UN Security Council Resolution 1701 established the ceasefire framework that lasted until 2024.
Long Term
Hezbollah rebuilt and expanded its arsenal from an estimated 13,000 rockets in 2006 to over 150,000 by 2024, while Israel overhauled its ground forces and intelligence capabilities to avoid repeating 2006's failures.
Why It's Relevant Today
Israeli military planners cite 2006 as the operation they intend not to repeat. The IDF has spent two decades degrading Hezbollah's leadership and stockpiles before committing ground forces—but Hezbollah's surviving fighters are explicitly invoking close-quarters combat as their advantage.
