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Davos 2026: Record Leaders Gather as US-Europe Rift Deepens

Davos 2026: Record Leaders Gather as US-Europe Rift Deepens

The 56th World Economic Forum opens amid Trump's Greenland tariffs and a fractured transatlantic alliance

Overview

For 55 years, the World Economic Forum at Davos served as neutral ground where adversaries could broker deals and rivals could find common cause. This year, 65 heads of state and nearly 3,000 leaders are arriving to find that ground shifting beneath them—with President Trump announcing 10% tariffs on eight European allies just 48 hours before the summit opened, escalating to 25% by June unless Denmark agrees to sell Greenland.

The summit's theme, 'A Spirit of Dialogue,' now reads as aspiration rather than description. EU ambassadors held emergency sessions over the weekend; eight NATO members issued a joint statement warning of a 'dangerous downward spiral.' Yet Trump is bringing his largest-ever delegation to Davos, including six Cabinet secretaries, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reportedly prepares to sign an $800 billion reconstruction deal with Washington. The forum that once helped avert a Greek-Turkish war in 1988 now faces the test of whether dialogue can bridge a rift between allies.

Key Indicators

65
Heads of State
Record attendance of world leaders, including six G7 heads of government
850
CEOs & Chairs
Top corporate executives from WEF member companies
10%→25%
Tariff Escalation
Trump's threatened tariffs on eight European nations over Greenland, rising from 10% (Feb 1) to 25% (June 1)
$800B
Ukraine Deal
Reported value of US-Ukraine reconstruction agreement expected to be signed at Davos
~1,000
Private Jets
Estimated private jet flights to Davos-area airports during summit week

People Involved

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
President of the United States (Attending in person on January 21—first Davos appearance since 2020)
Børge Brende
Børge Brende
President and CEO, World Economic Forum (Leading the summit under record attendance and geopolitical tension)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Ukraine (Expected to sign $800B reconstruction deal with Trump at Davos)
Larry Fink
Larry Fink
Chairman and CEO, BlackRock; Co-Chair, Davos 2026 (Co-chairing the summit alongside Roche's André Hoffmann)
Jensen Huang
Jensen Huang
Founder and CEO, NVIDIA (Making Davos debut amid AI governance debates)

Organizations Involved

World Economic Forum
World Economic Forum
International Organization
Status: Convening 56th Annual Meeting under new leadership structure

Swiss-based international organization that convenes political, business, and civil society leaders to address global challenges.

European Union
European Union
Political and Economic Union
Status: Coordinating response to US tariff threats; emergency ambassador meetings held

Political and economic union of 27 European member states coordinating a unified response to Trump's Greenland-related tariffs.

Timeline

  1. Trump Address Scheduled

    Political

    President Trump scheduled to deliver in-person address—his first Davos appearance since 2020. Expected to discuss housing and affordability.

  2. Davos 2026 Opens with Record Attendance

    Summit

    56th WEF Annual Meeting opened with 65 heads of state, 850 CEOs, and nearly 3,000 total participants—the highest-level gathering in the forum's history.

  3. EU Emergency Ambassador Meeting

    Diplomatic

    EU's 27 ambassadors convened emergency session in Brussels to coordinate response to Trump tariffs. Meeting lasted 3.5 hours. Retaliatory options include €93 billion in levies.

  4. Eight NATO Allies Issue Joint Warning

    Diplomatic

    UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden warned tariffs 'undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral.'

  5. Trump Announces Greenland Tariffs on Europe

    Trade

    Trump announced 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, rising to 25% on June 1, until Greenland is sold.

  6. Davos 2026 Theme Announced

    Announcement

    WEF announced 'A Spirit of Dialogue' as theme for 56th Annual Meeting, citing need to 'confront shared challenges' amid geopolitical transformation.

  7. Klaus Schwab Resigns as WEF Chairman

    Leadership

    Founder Klaus Schwab, 87, stepped down as chairman and board member. Peter Brabeck-Letmathe appointed interim chair; permanent successor search underway.

  8. Davos 2025 Opens Amid Inauguration

    Political

    55th WEF meeting under theme 'Collaboration for the Intelligent Age' coincided with Trump's second inauguration. Trump addressed CEOs virtually.

  9. WEF Global Risks Report 2026 Released

    Publication

    Report identified geoeconomic confrontation as top global risk, rising eight places from prior year. 50% of surveyed leaders expect 'turbulent or stormy' conditions.

  10. Trump's First Davos Speech

    Political

    Trump declared 'America is open for business' and clarified 'America First does not mean America alone'—first sitting US president at Davos since Clinton in 2000.

  11. World Economic Forum Founded

    Origin

    Klaus Schwab convenes first European Management Symposium in Davos with 450 participants from 31 countries.

Scenarios

1

Tariff Standoff Escalates; EU Retaliates with €93 Billion Package

Discussed by: European Commission officials, Bloomberg analysts, Reuters trade correspondents

If Trump holds firm on February 1 tariffs and Europe follows through on threatened retaliation, transatlantic trade enters a spiral. The EU's €93 billion package targets politically sensitive US exports—agriculture, machinery, consumer goods. Defense stocks continue rallying as Europe accelerates military spending. NATO's cohesion faces its most serious test since the alliance's founding. Davos 2026 becomes remembered as the summit where the transatlantic partnership fractured.

2

Greenland Compromise Emerges; Tariffs Avoided

Discussed by: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, CNBC analysts, diplomatic correspondents

NATO Secretary General Rutte's meetings with Trump at Davos produce a face-saving formula—perhaps enhanced US basing rights in Greenland or a joint Arctic security arrangement that falls short of ownership transfer. Tariffs are delayed or rescinded. The 'Spirit of Dialogue' theme proves prescient. European leaders accept that managing Trump requires concessions on form while protecting substance.

3

US-Ukraine Deal Overshadows Tariff Drama

Discussed by: Ukrainian officials, Kyiv Post, Financial Times

The reported $800 billion Ukraine reconstruction agreement between Trump and Zelenskyy dominates headlines, reframing Davos as a venue for historic peace-adjacent diplomacy rather than trade conflict. US-Europe tensions persist but are subordinated to the larger story of potential Ukraine resolution. European leaders recalibrate their Trump strategy around the Ukraine relationship.

4

AI Governance Breakthrough at Davos

Discussed by: World Economic Forum publications, technology executives, Global Risks Report analysts

With Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella, Dario Amodei, and OpenAI's Sarah Friar all present, Davos produces a significant public-private framework for AI governance. The Global Risks Report's warning that 'adverse outcomes of AI' jumped from 30th to 5th place on the 10-year risk horizon catalyzes action. This becomes the forum's lasting legacy from 2026, independent of the tariff drama.

Historical Context

Davos Declaration (1988)

January 1988

What Happened

Greece and Turkey stood at the brink of armed conflict over Aegean territorial disputes. At the 1988 World Economic Forum, Prime Ministers Andreas Papandreou of Greece and Turgut Özal of Turkey met on neutral ground. They signed the Davos Declaration, committing to peaceful resolution of disputes and establishing direct communication channels.

Outcome

Short Term

Immediate de-escalation of military tensions in the Aegean. Both nations pulled back naval forces and suspended provocative exercises.

Long Term

The 'Davos process' between Greece and Turkey continued for years, though underlying disputes remained unresolved. Established Davos as a venue capable of facilitating high-stakes diplomacy.

Why It's Relevant Today

Davos 2026 faces a similar test: whether the forum can provide neutral ground for the US-Europe rift. The 1988 precedent shows Davos can de-escalate crises when leaders commit to dialogue—but also that underlying tensions may persist.

G20 Washington Summit (2008)

November 2008

What Happened

As the global financial crisis threatened economic collapse, President George W. Bush convened the first G20 leaders' summit in Washington. The concept of elevating the G20 from a finance ministers' forum to a heads-of-government body had been discussed at Davos in 1998. Twenty leaders coordinated a multi-trillion-dollar response, with Japan alone contributing $100 billion to the IMF.

Outcome

Short Term

Leaders pledged coordinated stimulus and avoided a protectionist spiral. The IMF's budget was tripled.

Long Term

G20 became the premier forum for global economic coordination, supplanting the G7/G8 for crisis response. Financial regulations were strengthened through the Financial Stability Board.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2008 crisis showed what coordinated multilateral response can achieve. Davos 2026 tests whether such coordination remains possible when the US itself is the source of economic coercion against allies.

Trump's First Davos Address (2018)

January 2018

What Happened

Trump became the first sitting US president to attend Davos since Bill Clinton in 2000. Amid expectations of confrontation, he struck a conciliatory tone: 'America First does not mean America alone.' He touted tax cuts and invited investment, avoiding direct attacks on globalization. African business leaders had planned a walkout that never materialized.

Outcome

Short Term

Global elites were reassured that 'America First' might be compatible with engagement. Markets stabilized.

Long Term

The reassurance proved temporary. Tariff wars with China and allies followed within months. Trump's 2018 Davos tone was an outlier, not a template.

Why It's Relevant Today

Trump returns to Davos in 2026 having already launched tariffs on allies before arriving—a sharp contrast to his 2018 courtship. The question is whether Davos can again produce rhetorical de-escalation, or whether his opening position is now the policy.

15 Sources:
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