The Group of Twenty has operated by consensus since finance ministers created it in 1999. In December 2026, the United States will host the summit at Trump National Doral Miami—and for the first time in the forum's history, a founding member has been barred from attending. South Africa received no invitation. Poland, which recently became the world's twentieth-largest economy, got one instead.
The exclusion breaks a 27-year precedent and raises fundamental questions about whether rotating host countries can unilaterally reshape the G20's membership. If other members accept this outcome, the principle of consensus-based governance may give way to something new: a forum where the host nation decides who sits at the table. The stakes extend beyond one summit—the G20 represents 85% of global GDP, and its norms for cooperation could either fragment or adapt.
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People Involved
Donald Trump
President of the United States, G20 2026 Host (Hosting summit at his own property)
Marco Rubio
US Secretary of State (Leading G20 2026 preparations)
Cyril Ramaphosa
President of South Africa, 2025 G20 Host (Leading diplomatic response to exclusion)
Xi Jinping
President of China (Expected to attend Miami summit)
Organizations Involved
GR
Group of Twenty (G20)
International Economic Forum
Status: Facing first membership dispute in history
Forum of finance ministers and central bank governors from 19 countries plus the European Union, elevated to leaders' summits during the 2008 financial crisis.
BR
BRICS
International Economic and Political Bloc
Status: India hosting 2026 summit
Economic bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently expanded to include additional members.
Timeline
Miami G20 Summit Scheduled to Open
Summit
The 21st G20 leaders' summit is scheduled to begin at Trump National Doral Miami, with Xi Jinping expected to attend.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Invited as Guests
Invitation
Trump announces invitations to the Central Asian nations, signaling US interest in their critical minerals for nuclear fuel supply chains.
First US Sherpa Meeting Convenes Without South Africa
Negotiation
Senior officials from 18 G20 members plus Poland meet in Washington. The US launches four working groups on trade, energy, technology, and regulatory reform.
South Africa Asks Members to Object to Exclusion
Diplomacy
South Africa formally requests fellow G20 members challenge its exclusion, testing whether the forum's consensus norms will hold.
Poland Invited to Replace South Africa
Invitation
The US formally invites Poland—now the 20th largest economy—as the only full guest participant, effectively replacing South Africa at the table.
Rubio Unveils 'New G20' Agenda
Policy
Secretary of State Rubio outlines three priorities: removing regulatory burdens, securing energy supply chains, and advancing technology. Climate and development dropped.
US Assumes G20 Presidency
Transition
The United States officially takes over the rotating G20 presidency from South Africa.
Trump Bars South Africa from 2026 Summit
Exclusion
Trump announces South Africa will not be invited to the Miami G20—the first time in history a founding member has been excluded from the forum.
G20 Adopts 122-Point Declaration Without US
Declaration
Leaders adopt a comprehensive declaration on development, climate, and debt relief. Ramaphosa refuses US request to hand presidency to a junior embassy official.
Johannesburg G20 Summit Opens Without US
Summit
For the first time since 2008, a G20 leaders' summit convenes without US participation. The first G20 on African soil proceeds despite the boycott.
Trump Announces US Will Boycott Johannesburg Summit
Boycott
Trump declares the US will not attend the South Africa-hosted G20, citing allegations about treatment of white farmers and South Africa's genocide case against Israel.
White House Discusses Doral as G20 Venue
Planning
Reports emerge that Trump is privately discussing plans to host the 2026 G20 summit at his Florida golf resort.
Trump Abandons Doral G7 Plans After Ethics Criticism
Precedent
Trump reverses course on hosting the G7 at his Miami-area resort following widespread criticism over potential constitutional violations.
First G20 Leaders' Summit Convenes in Washington
Institutional
Amid the global financial crisis, G20 is elevated from finance ministers to heads of state. Leaders agree to $4 trillion in coordinated stimulus.
G20 Created After Asian Financial Crisis
Origin
Finance ministers and central bank governors from 19 countries plus the EU meet for the first time in Berlin, establishing the Group of Twenty.
Scenarios
1
Miami Summit Proceeds, New Norms Take Hold
Discussed by: Atlantic Council, Council on Foreign Relations analysts
Most G20 members attend Miami despite South Africa's exclusion. No coordinated boycott materializes. The precedent of host-country discretion over invitations becomes accepted practice, and future presidencies gain similar latitude. The forum fragments into a more transactional venue where participation is negotiated bilaterally rather than guaranteed by membership.
2
BRICS Members Boycott, G20 Splits Into Rival Blocs
Discussed by: Foreign Policy, Center for Global Development
China, Russia, Brazil, and other BRICS-aligned nations refuse to attend in solidarity with South Africa. The G20 effectively becomes a G15 while BRICS emerges as the alternative forum for Global South economic coordination. Two parallel governance architectures compete for legitimacy.
3
Members Force South Africa's Reinstatement
Discussed by: South African Institute of International Affairs
A critical mass of G20 members formally objects to South Africa's exclusion. Facing the prospect of a delegitimized summit, the US either reverses course or the troika mechanism reasserts itself. The consensus principle survives, but US influence over the forum diminishes.
4
Summit Produces Major US-China Trade Deal
Discussed by: Bloomberg, CNBC analysts
Trump and Xi use Miami as the venue for a comprehensive trade agreement, potentially including Boeing aircraft purchases and tariff reductions. The controversy over membership recedes as economic outcomes dominate headlines. The G20's relevance is reaffirmed through bilateral deal-making rather than multilateral consensus.
Historical Context
US Boycotts Moscow Olympics (1980)
July 1980
What Happened
President Jimmy Carter led a boycott of the Moscow Summer Olympics to protest the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Sixty-five countries ultimately stayed away, though major allies like Britain, France, and Australia still participated. The Soviet Union and its allies retaliated by boycotting the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics.
Outcome
Short Term
The games proceeded with reduced participation. The US boycott did not change Soviet policy in Afghanistan.
Long Term
Established a precedent for using international forum boycotts as diplomatic weapons, though effectiveness remained disputed. Tit-for-tat exclusions became normalized.
Why It's Relevant Today
Like the G20 situation, the Olympics boycott showed how the US could use exclusion as leverage—but also how such actions can fragment institutions and invite retaliation rather than achieve policy goals.
Russia Suspended from G8 (2014)
March 2014
What Happened
Following Russia's annexation of Crimea, the G7 nations suspended Russia's participation in what had been the G8 since 1997. The move was coordinated among all remaining members and responded to a specific act of territorial aggression.
Outcome
Short Term
Russia lost its seat at the G8 table. The forum reverted to its pre-1997 G7 format.
Long Term
Russia pivoted toward BRICS and other alternative forums. The suspension has never been reversed, and Russia has since shown diminished interest in rejoining.
Why It's Relevant Today
The G8 suspension required consensus among members responding to clear norm violations. The G20 situation differs: one host country is unilaterally excluding a member without group consensus, over bilateral disputes rather than international law violations.
League of Nations Collapse (1930s)
1933-1939
What Happened
The League of Nations, the interwar precursor to the United Nations, slowly collapsed as major powers withdrew or were expelled. Japan left in 1933 after condemnation of its Manchuria invasion. Germany withdrew the same year. Italy followed in 1937. The Soviet Union was expelled in 1939.
Outcome
Short Term
The League continued to function but lost credibility as a forum for major power coordination.
Long Term
The institution became irrelevant to preventing World War II. Its failure informed the design of the UN, which gave major powers veto rights to keep them engaged.
Why It's Relevant Today
When major powers can selectively exclude others or withdraw without consequence, multilateral institutions lose their core function. The G20's value depends on keeping all major economies at the table—including adversaries.
