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Race for the ocean floor

Race for the ocean floor

Rule Changes

How Critical Minerals Are Rewriting the Rules of Deep-Sea Governance

February 3rd, 2026: Study Documents 788 Species and Mining Impacts

Overview

A five-year research expedition has cataloged 788 species living 4,000 meters beneath the Pacific Ocean—90% of them previously unknown to science—just as the race to mine the same seabed accelerates. The study, published in February 2026, documents a 37% decline in animal abundance wherever mining equipment touched the seafloor. It's the first systematic look at what commercial extraction would destroy.

The findings arrive as governments clash over mining rules. In April 2025, the United States bypassed the UN to fast-track permits, while China and Pacific nations pushed to finalize rules, and 38 countries demanded a moratorium.

The Clarion-Clipperton Zone—a Pacific seafloor stretch the size of the continental United States—holds an estimated six times more cobalt and three times more nickel than all known land reserves. These minerals are essential for electric vehicle batteries. Whether this ecosystem gets protected or plundered depends on regulations that don't yet exist.

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Key Indicators

788
Species documented
Deep-sea species cataloged by the University of Gothenburg study, approximately 90% previously unknown
37%
Biodiversity decline
Reduction in animal abundance in areas touched by mining equipment
38
Countries seeking pause
Nations calling for a moratorium or precautionary pause on deep-sea mining
65,000 km²
Permit area sought
Size of the commercial recovery zone The Metals Company is seeking from NOAA

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

1954 February 2026

17 events Latest: February 3rd, 2026 · 4 months ago Showing 8 of 17
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  1. Study Documents 788 Species and Mining Impacts

    Latest Research

    University of Gothenburg publishes findings: 788 species cataloged, 90% previously unknown; 37% decline in animal abundance and 32% drop in species diversity in mined areas.

  2. TMC Expands Permit Request to 65,000 km²

    Industry

    The Metals Company files consolidated application with NOAA, more than doubling its initial commercial recovery area.

  3. University of Gothenburg Completes Five-Year Survey

    Research

    Researchers finish cataloging deep-sea life in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone after 160 days at sea, identifying 788 species.

  4. ISA Again Fails to Finalize Mining Code

    Regulatory

    Member states unable to reach consensus at 30th Annual Session. Key disputes remain over environmental thresholds, profit sharing, and whether mining should proceed at all.

  5. Trump Signs Deep-Sea Mining Executive Order

    Regulatory

    U.S. bypasses UN treaty system, directing agencies to fast-track permits under the 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act. ISA calls it a violation of international law.

  6. The Metals Company Files First U.S. Commercial Application

    Industry

    TMC submits application to NOAA for commercial recovery permit and exploration licenses in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

  7. Carvalho Assumes ISA Leadership

    Leadership

    First woman, first oceanographer, and first Latin American to lead the International Seabed Authority takes office.

  8. ISA Elects New Secretary-General Amid Stalemate

    Leadership

    Leticia Carvalho of Brazil defeats incumbent Michael Lodge 79-34. Record 32 states call for moratorium. No mining authorized.

  9. ISA Misses Two-Year Deadline

    Regulatory

    Member states fail to finalize Mining Code by the Nauru-triggered deadline. They agree to aim for July 2025, but the timeline is not legally binding.

  10. First Mining Test in Decades Approved

    Research

    ISA approves the first test extraction since the 1970s, surprising observers who expected more environmental review.

  11. Nauru Triggers the 'Two-Year Rule'

    Regulatory

    Pacific island nation invokes treaty provision requiring ISA to finalize mining regulations within 24 months, on behalf of mining company NORI.

  12. ISA Begins Issuing Exploration Contracts

    Regulatory

    The Authority starts granting 15-year exploration licenses to governments and private entities for the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

  13. International Seabed Authority Established

    Regulatory

    ISA created under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to manage deep-sea mineral resources as 'common heritage of mankind.'

  14. NOAA Issues First U.S. Exploration Licenses

    Regulatory

    United States issues four exploration licenses for sites in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone under domestic law.

  15. First Commercial Interest Emerges

    Industry

    Kennecott Consortium forms to develop commercial-grade equipment for mining polymetallic nodules. Interest is inadvertently boosted by CIA's Glomar Explorer cover story.

  16. Clarion-Clipperton Zone Discovered

    Discovery

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography identifies the Clarion and Clipperton fracture zones in the Pacific Ocean.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

August 1974

Project Azorian and the Birth of Deep-Sea Mining (1974)

The CIA used a cover story about mining manganese nodules to disguise the Hughes Glomar Explorer, a ship secretly built to recover a sunken Soviet submarine from 16,500 feet in the Pacific. Howard Hughes publicly announced the vessel would pioneer commercial deep-sea extraction. The operation was exposed within six months, but the cover story had already sparked genuine commercial interest in seabed minerals.

Then

The Kennecott Consortium and other firms invested in deep-sea mining technology, launching the first exploration efforts in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

Now

The incident inadvertently created the modern deep-sea mining industry. The zone that the CIA identified for its cover story is now the same region where commercial extraction may first occur.

Why this matters now

The Clarion-Clipperton Zone's emergence as the primary target for deep-sea mining traces directly to this Cold War deception—a reminder that technological development often follows unexpected paths.

October 1991

Antarctic Mining Protocol (1991)

After years of negotiation on a minerals convention that would have allowed Antarctic mining, the Protocol on Environmental Protection was adopted instead. It designated Antarctica as a natural reserve devoted to peace and science, banning all mining-related activities for 50 years.

Then

Mining interests abandoned Antarctic plans; the continent remained untouched for resource extraction.

Now

The protocol established a precedent for precautionary governance of frontier environments. The ban remains in effect until 2048.

Why this matters now

The 38 countries now calling for a deep-sea mining moratorium are invoking similar precautionary logic—arguing that extraction should wait until science catches up with commercial ambition.

1989 - Present

DISTURBANCE Experiment Recovery Study (1989-2033)

German researchers scraped a 10.8-square-kilometer patch of the Peru Basin seafloor to simulate nodule mining, then tracked recovery over subsequent decades. A 2025 Nature study found that 44 years later, biodiversity remained lower than undisturbed sites, and carbon cycling was 16% reduced.

Then

The experiment provided rare data on deep-sea ecosystem resilience.

Now

Four decades of monitoring demonstrated that deep-sea ecosystems recover far more slowly than terrestrial ones—centuries rather than decades.

Why this matters now

This study directly informs the Gothenburg team's findings: the 37% biodiversity decline they observed may persist for generations, raising questions about whether 'reversible' is the right frame for deep-sea mining impacts.

Sources

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