Factory electrification in the US (1900s-1920s)
After Edison opened the first commercial power station in 1882, US factories took two decades to shift from steam to electric drive. By 1919 about half of US manufacturing capacity ran on electricity. The transition required rewiring buildings, retraining workers, and rethinking factory layouts.
Manufacturing output per worker began rising in the 1920s. Capital spending on electric motors and generators surged.
Productivity gains from electrification did not show in aggregate statistics until the late 1920s, roughly a decade after the 50 percent threshold. Economist Paul David documented this lag as a recurring pattern for general-purpose technologies.
Electrification's adoption curve is the closest historical match for AI: a general-purpose technology with a long gap between deployment and measured productivity. The Federal Reserve cited this analogy in its April 2026 note on AI.
