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Gaza's First New Government in 18 Years Takes Shape

Gaza's First New Government in 18 Years Takes Shape

A 15-member technocratic committee meets in Cairo as international oversight begins

Overview

Hamas has governed Gaza since June 2007. On January 15, 2026, a 15-member committee of Palestinian technocrats—none affiliated with Hamas or the Palestinian Authority—held its first meeting in Cairo, beginning the strip's transition to international oversight under a UN-mandated Board of Peace chaired by Donald Trump.

The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza will manage utilities, education, and civil services for 2 million people in a territory where 90% of homes are damaged, reconstruction costs exceed $70 billion, and Israel still occupies 53% of the land. Whether this arrangement survives depends on three unresolved questions: Will Hamas actually disarm? Will Israel withdraw further? Will the international force deploy before governance collapses?

Key Indicators

18
Years of Hamas rule ending
Hamas took control of Gaza in June 2007 after defeating Fatah forces
$70B
Estimated reconstruction cost
UN October 2025 estimate, up from $50B in February 2025
53%
Gaza under Israeli control
IDF controls majority of territory after withdrawing from urban areas
15
Committee members
Technocrats vetted by Israel, none affiliated with Hamas or PA
20,000
Planned peacekeeping troops
International Stabilization Force authorized by UN Resolution 2803

People Involved

Ali Shaath
Ali Shaath
Chair, National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (Leading first meeting in Cairo)
Nickolay Mladenov
Nickolay Mladenov
Director-General, Board of Peace (Overseeing NCAG implementation)
Steve Witkoff
Steve Witkoff
U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East (Announced Phase Two launch)
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister of Israel (Characterizing Phase Two as 'largely symbolic')
Khalil al-Hayya
Khalil al-Hayya
Senior Hamas Leader, Lead Negotiator (In Cairo for ceasefire discussions)

Organizations Involved

NA
National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG)
Transitional Government
Status: First meeting held January 15, 2026

15-member Palestinian technocratic body responsible for day-to-day administration of Gaza's utilities, education, and civil services during the transition period.

Board of Peace (BoP)
Board of Peace (BoP)
International Oversight Body
Status: Formation announced, first meeting expected at Davos

UN-mandated international body overseeing Gaza's transitional administration, reconstruction, and demilitarization until December 31, 2027.

IN
International Stabilization Force
Peacekeeping Force
Status: Authorized but not yet deployed

UN-authorized multinational peacekeeping force of up to 20,000 troops to provide security, train Palestinian police, and oversee demilitarization in Gaza.

Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)
Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)
Political/Militant Organization
Status: Ceding administrative control, refusing to disarm

Palestinian Islamist movement that governed Gaza from 2007 until the current transition, now agreeing to hand over civil administration while refusing full disarmament.

Timeline

  1. NCAG Holds First Meeting in Cairo

    Political

    Committee meets with UN envoy Mladenov. Arab diplomat warns Israel blocking civil servant deployment, 'hobbling it out of the gate.'

  2. Phase Two Launched, NCAG Formed

    Political

    Witkoff announces launch of Phase Two. Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators reveal 15-member technocratic committee led by Ali Shaath.

  3. Mladenov Named Board of Peace Director

    Appointment

    Former UN Middle East envoy Nickolay Mladenov confirmed as director-general of Board of Peace after meeting Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

  4. ISF Command Planning Conference

    Military

    CENTCOM hosts 26-nation conference in Qatar to plan International Stabilization Force deployment structure.

  5. UN Security Council Adopts Resolution 2803

    Legal

    Council votes 13-0 (China, Russia abstaining) to authorize Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force. Mandate runs through December 2027.

  6. Ceasefire Takes Effect

    Milestone

    Fighting officially pauses. Israel withdraws from urban areas but retains control of approximately 53% of Gaza's territory.

  7. Israel and Hamas Sign Ceasefire

    Diplomatic

    Agreement signed in Sharm el-Sheikh. Phase One includes hostage releases, prisoner exchanges, and partial Israeli withdrawal.

  8. Trump Unveils 20-Point Gaza Plan

    Diplomatic

    Trump announces comprehensive peace plan alongside Netanyahu at the White House. Gives Hamas deadline of October 5 to accept.

  9. Israeli Ground Invasion Begins

    Military

    IDF enters Gaza after weeks of airstrikes. Over the following two years, more than 71,000 Palestinians are killed.

  10. Israel Declares War

    Military

    Israel declares war for first time since 1973, mobilizes 300,000 reservists—the largest call-up in the nation's history.

  11. Hamas Attacks Southern Israel

    Military

    Hamas launches Operation Al-Aqsa Flood with 4,300+ rockets and ground incursions. 1,195 Israelis and foreign nationals killed, 251 taken hostage.

  12. Hamas Seizes Control of Gaza

    Political

    Hamas forces defeat Fatah in violent clashes, taking full control of the Gaza Strip. 188 people killed in the fighting.

Scenarios

1

NCAG Consolidates, ISF Deploys, Hamas Fades

Discussed by: Trump administration, Israeli government (conditionally), Gulf state mediators

The technocratic committee establishes basic services across Gaza within six months. Indonesia and Morocco deploy peacekeeping troops, creating a security buffer that allows Israel to withdraw further. Hamas retains political influence but loses administrative relevance as reconstruction funding flows through the Board of Peace. This requires Hamas to acquiesce to demilitarization or face isolation from reconstruction benefits—a bet that economic incentives outweigh military capacity.

2

Governance Vacuum: NCAG Collapses Before ISF Arrives

Discussed by: Arab diplomats, UN officials, security analysts

Israel continues blocking civil servants and restricting imports, preventing the NCAG from providing basic services. Without visible improvement in daily life, the committee loses credibility among Gazans. The International Stabilization Force delays deployment due to troop contribution disputes or security concerns. Hamas reasserts control in the governance vacuum, or armed factions fragment authority entirely. This scenario follows the pattern of Iraq's Coalition Provisional Authority—international structures overwhelmed by local dynamics.

3

Frozen Transition: Ceasefire Holds, Progress Stalls

Discussed by: European analysts, Carnegie Endowment, Washington Institute

The ceasefire persists despite mutual accusations of violations. The NCAG operates in limited territory as Israel maintains occupation of strategic areas and refuses further withdrawal. The Board of Peace functions primarily as a coordination mechanism for humanitarian aid rather than a transitional authority. Gaza remains in an indefinite limbo—not at war, not reconstructing, not self-governing. This resembles the post-2014 Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, which took years to rebuild a fraction of destroyed homes.

4

War Resumes After Major Violation

Discussed by: IDF officials, Hamas statements, regional security analysts

A significant attack—whether by Hamas remnants, Israeli forces, or splinter factions—collapses the ceasefire. Israel reoccupies cleared territory. International actors abandon the Board of Peace framework. Reconstruction funding freezes. The October 2025 agreement joins the list of failed Gaza truces. This outcome becomes more likely if domestic political pressures in Israel (Netanyahu faces elections by October 2026) or within Palestinian factions incentivize escalation.

Historical Context

Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq (2003-2004)

May 2003 - June 2004

What Happened

After the U.S. invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, the Coalition Provisional Authority governed Iraq under administrator Paul Bremer. The CPA wielded executive, legislative, and judicial authority under UN Security Council Resolution 1483. It disbanded the Iraqi army—instantly unemploying 500,000 people—and purged Ba'ath Party members from government, creating a leadership vacuum.

Outcome

Short Term

Iraq's economy grew 46.5% in 2004, the highest post-conflict growth on record. But security deteriorated rapidly; the decisions to disband the military and de-Ba'athify fueled an insurgency.

Long Term

The CPA transferred sovereignty after just 13 months. Iraq descended into civil war by 2006. The experience established that technocratic governance cannot succeed without security—and that excluding existing power structures creates enemies.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Gaza transition faces the same fundamental question: Can international administrators provide services and legitimacy faster than armed factions can destabilize them? Hamas, unlike the Ba'ath Party, has not been forcibly excluded—but also has not disarmed.

UNMIK in Kosovo (1999-2008)

June 1999 - February 2008

What Happened

After NATO's bombing campaign ended Serbian control, UN Security Council Resolution 1244 established UNMIK with unprecedented authority—all legislative, executive, and judicial power over Kosovo's 2 million people. A NATO-led peacekeeping force (KFOR) provided security. The mission gradually transferred powers to elected local institutions.

Outcome

Short Term

UNMIK stabilized Kosovo and prevented a return to ethnic violence. Within three years, Provisional Institutions of Self-Government were functioning under international oversight.

Long Term

Kosovo declared independence in 2008; international supervision ended in 2012. The 13-year transition demonstrated that UN administration can work—but requires sustained commitment, clear end-state goals, and functional security.

Why It's Relevant Today

Resolution 2803's Board of Peace structure mirrors UNMIK's approach: international oversight transitioning to local governance. But Kosovo had no equivalent to Hamas—an armed movement that governed the territory and refuses to disband. The question is whether Gaza can follow the Kosovo path without first resolving Hamas's status.

Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (2014-2021)

September 2014 - May 2021

What Happened

After the 2014 Gaza war killed 2,251 Palestinians and destroyed 17,800 homes, the UN established the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism to coordinate rebuilding under Israeli security restrictions. The GRM controlled imports of construction materials to prevent diversion to militant use.

Outcome

Short Term

Reconstruction proceeded slowly. Three years after the 2014 war, only 57% of destroyed homes had been rebuilt.

Long Term

The GRM became a model of 'normalized siege'—managing humanitarian minimums rather than enabling recovery. Gaza's infrastructure remained fragile when the 2021 and 2023 conflicts struck, each time destroying what had been partially rebuilt.

Why It's Relevant Today

The $70 billion reconstruction challenge dwarfs 2014's scale. If the NCAG faces similar restrictions—Israel is already blocking civil servants—Gaza risks another cycle of partial recovery and renewed conflict rather than genuine transition.

15 Sources:
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Times of Israel Al Jazeera NPR UN Press Palestine Chronicle Wikipedia Morocco World News CNN ABC News Al Jazeera Wikipedia Wikipedia Times of Israel Wikipedia Wikipedia