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Gaza's third winter without shelter

Gaza's third winter without shelter

Force in Play

After 27 Months of War, 1.1 Million People Face Freezing Temperatures in Makeshift Tents

January 14th, 2026: US Announces Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire

Overview

A severe winter storm struck Gaza on January 13, 2026, collapsing war-damaged walls and killing at least 8 Palestinians, including a 7-day-old infant, a 1-year-old boy, and a 4-year-old girl who died of hypothermia. Cold-weather deaths have reached at least 23 since winter began; over 1.1 million people need shelter and 81% of Gaza's structures are destroyed or damaged.

This is Gaza's third consecutive winter of mass displacement since Israel's military campaign began in October 2023. On January 14, the US announced phase two of the Trump-brokered ceasefire, focusing on demilitarization and reconstruction.

Aid deliveries are at 43% of agreed levels, and Israel has banned 37 international aid organizations including Doctors Without Borders. The shelter funding gap is 74%; the UN reports 42,000 tents damaged in recent storms, with blanket and heating shortages exceeding 70%.

Key Indicators

1.1M
People needing urgent shelter
More than half of Gaza's 2.1 million population lacks adequate winter protection
81%
Structures damaged or destroyed
UN satellite analysis found 198,273 affected structures as of October 2025
23+
Cold-weather deaths this winter
Mostly children, including infants who froze in unheated tents
74%
Shelter funding gap
Only $29 million of $112 million needed for winter assistance has been received
42,000
Tents damaged since December
Winter storms have destroyed or partially damaged makeshift shelters across Gaza
37
Aid groups banned by Israel
Including MSF, Norwegian Refugee Council, and Oxfam, effective January 1, 2026

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

October 2023 January 2026

15 events Latest: January 14th, 2026 · 4 months ago Showing 8 of 15
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  1. US Announces Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire

    Latest Diplomatic

    US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announces commencement of second phase of Trump's 20-point ceasefire plan, focusing on demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.

  2. Winter Storm Kills 8 as Buildings Collapse

    Humanitarian

    Fierce winds collapse an 8-meter wall onto a family's tent, killing three generations of the Hamouda family. Separately, a 1-year-old, 7-day-old infant, and 4-year-old girl die of hypothermia overnight.

  3. Cold Claims Lives of 21 Displaced Palestinians

    Humanitarian

    Middle East Monitor reports 21 Palestinians, mostly children, have died from extreme cold in displacement camps since winter began.

  4. Israel Bans 37 Aid Organizations

    Humanitarian

    Operating licenses revoked for MSF, Norwegian Refugee Council, Oxfam, and others for failing to meet new registration requirements.

  5. Third Ceasefire Begins

    Diplomatic

    Trump-brokered peace plan takes effect. Israel agrees to allow 600 aid trucks daily, later reduced to 300.

  6. UN Declares Famine in Gaza

    Humanitarian

    The IPC officially declares famine in Gaza Governorate, with likely spread to Deir al-Balah and Khan Yunis within a month.

  7. Israel Breaks Ceasefire with Major Strikes

    Military

    Operation Might and Sword kills over 400 Palestinians in surprise attacks. Netanyahu declares Israel has "resumed combat in full force."

  8. Israel Halts Aid Entry to Gaza

    Humanitarian

    Following breakdown of ceasefire negotiations, Israel blocks humanitarian aid. The 11-week blockade causes food prices to rise 1,400% and at least 58 starvation deaths.

  9. Second Ceasefire Takes Effect

    Diplomatic

    Israel-Hamas ceasefire begins under US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediation. Phase one includes hostage exchanges and increased aid entry.

  10. 110,000 Tents Rendered Unusable

    Humanitarian

    Gaza Government Media Office reports strong winds and heavy rainfall have "completely deteriorated" 110,000 out of 135,000 tents used by displaced Palestinians.

  11. First Infant Deaths from Hypothermia

    Humanitarian

    Palestinian doctors report four infants "froze to death" over three days as temperatures drop in displacement camps lacking heating.

  12. First Temporary Ceasefire Begins

    Diplomatic

    A seven-day pause allows hostage exchanges and limited aid entry. The ceasefire collapses after Hamas releases 105 hostages.

  13. Israel Launches Ground Invasion of Gaza

    Military

    Israeli forces enter Gaza after 20 days of airstrikes that dropped approximately 6,000 bombs. Mass displacement begins.

  14. Hamas Attack Triggers War

    Conflict

    Hamas-led militants attack Israel, killing 1,195 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel declares war and begins mobilizing 300,000 reservists.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

March-April 1991

Kurdish Exodus (1991)

After the failed uprising against Saddam Hussein, 1.5 million Iraqi Kurds fled to mountainous border regions with Turkey and Iran. Lacking food, shelter, and heating in freezing conditions, refugees died at rates of 1,000-1,500 per day. Estimates suggest 48,400 to 140,600 Kurds starved to death, with thousands more dying from exposure—particularly children and the elderly.

Then

The crisis prompted Operation Provide Comfort, with US airdrops of 7,000 tons of aid and establishment of a "safe haven" in northern Iraq.

Now

The no-fly zone protecting Kurdish areas became the foundation for Iraqi Kurdistan's autonomous governance, lasting until 2003.

Why this matters now

Both crises feature mass displacement into inadequate shelter during winter, with access restrictions limiting aid delivery. The Kurdish death toll demonstrates the mortality potential when exposed populations lack protection from cold—a risk Gaza faces with 1.1 million in urgent need of shelter.

April 1992-July 1995

Siege of Srebrenica (1992-1995)

Srebrenica's population swelled from 9,000 to 60,000 as refugees fled ethnic cleansing across eastern Bosnia. Bosnian Serb forces blocked humanitarian aid, causing starvation to peak in winter 1992-1993. Refugees lived in overcrowded conditions without clean water, food, or adequate shelter. The UN declared it a "safe area" in April 1993.

Then

US-led airdrops provided temporary relief, but the siege continued with intermittent aid access.

Now

The enclave fell in July 1995, resulting in the massacre of over 8,000 Bosniak men and boys—the worst mass killing in Europe since World War II.

Why this matters now

Srebrenica illustrates how UN "safe area" designations and limited aid corridors fail to protect besieged populations when military forces control access. Gaza's displaced face similar dynamics: international legal protections exist on paper while aid remains below critical thresholds.

July-August 1994

Rwandan Refugee Crisis (1994)

After the genocide, 1.2 million Rwandans fled to camps in Zaire (now DRC) within days. Cholera and dysentery killed refugees at rates of 19-31 deaths per 10,000 per day—levels that would have eliminated the entire population within a year if sustained. Over 90% of first-month deaths came from disease outbreaks in overcrowded camps.

Then

International response eventually controlled the epidemic, but an estimated 50,000 refugees died in the first month alone.

Now

The crisis reshaped humanitarian response protocols, leading to the Sphere Standards for minimum humanitarian assistance.

Why this matters now

Rwanda demonstrates how rapidly mortality escalates when displaced populations concentrate in unsanitary conditions without adequate services—a pattern Gaza's 862 displacement sites replicate with 1 million residents and damaged water infrastructure.

Sources

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