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Global terrorism deaths fall to lowest level since 2007

Global terrorism deaths fall to lowest level since 2007

Force in Play

Annual deaths dropped 28% to 5,582, but the decline masks rising violence in Pakistan and the West

March 19th, 2026: Global Terrorism Index 2026 reports decade-low deaths

Overview

At the peak in 2014, terrorism killed roughly 33,000 people worldwide — driven largely by the Islamic State's rapid territorial conquest across Iraq and Syria. Twelve years later, the Global Terrorism Index for 2026 reports that annual deaths have dropped 83%, to 5,582, the lowest figure since 2007. Terrorist incidents fell 22% to 2,944, and 81 countries recorded improvements.

The headline number, however, obscures sharp divergences. Pakistan has become the world's most terrorism-affected country for the first time, with 1,139 deaths in 2025. Fatalities from terrorism in Western nations surged 280%.

That's driven almost entirely by lone-wolf political attacks, not the religiously motivated plots that dominated the previous decade. The Sahel's apparent improvement may reflect a strategic pivot by jihadist groups toward economic warfare rather than a genuine loss of capability.

Why it matters

The steepest sustained decline in terrorism deaths since modern tracking began is reshaping where security resources flow — and where threats are quietly growing.

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Key Indicators

5,582
Deaths from terrorism in 2025
Down 28% from 2024 and 83% from the 2014 peak of roughly 33,000
2,944
Terrorist incidents in 2025
Down 22% year-over-year, the lowest count in nearly two decades
81
Countries that improved
Compared to 19 that deteriorated, of which 7 were Western nations
280%
Surge in Western terrorism fatalities
57 deaths in 2025, with 93% from lone-wolf attacks and political motivations overtaking religious ones
1,139
Deaths in Pakistan
Pakistan became the most terrorism-affected country for the first time, its worst year since 2013
76%
Attacks within 100 km of a border
Up from roughly 60% in 2007, reflecting how terrorism concentrates in ungoverned border zones

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Timeline Five events from this story — drag them oldest to newest. Log in to play
Connections Sixteen names from the news. Find the four hidden groups of four. Log in to play

People Involved

Steve Killelea
Steve Killelea
Active — oversees publication of the Global Terrorism Index

Organizations Involved

Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
International Think Tank
Publisher of the Global Terrorism Index 2026

A non-profit think tank that produces quantitative indices measuring peace, terrorism, and their economic impacts across 163 countries.
Islamic State (ISIS)
Islamic State (ISIS)
Terrorist Organization
Degraded but still the world's deadliest terrorist organization by attack count

A transnational jihadist organization that controlled 41,000 square miles at its 2014 peak and has since fragmented into regional affiliates responsible for 17% of global attacks in 2025.
TT
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Terrorist Organization
Third deadliest terrorist group globally in 2025

A Pakistani jihadist umbrella group that has escalated sharply since the Afghan Taliban's return to power in 2021, making Pakistan the world's most terrorism-affected country.
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)
Al-Qaeda affiliate, Sahel
Dominant jihadist force in the Sahel, shifting toward economic warfare

An al-Qaeda-affiliated coalition that controls or influences large swaths of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and has pivoted from mass-casualty attacks to territorial consolidation and economic blockades.

Timeline

September 2001 March 2026

9 events Latest: March 19th, 2026 · 4 months ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Global Terrorism Index 2026 reports decade-low deaths

    Latest Report

    The IEP published its annual index showing terrorism deaths fell 28% to 5,582 and incidents dropped 22% to 2,944 — the lowest figures since 2007. Pakistan replaced Burkina Faso as the most-affected country, and Western fatalities surged 280%.

  2. Niger coup completes Sahel junta trifecta

    Political

    Following coups in Burkina Faso and Mali, Niger's military seized power. All three countries subsequently expelled French forces and turned to Russia's Africa Corps, with mixed security results.

  3. Burkina Faso military coup

    Political

    The first in a series of military coups across the Sahel that disrupted counterterrorism partnerships with Western nations and created institutional vacuums exploited by jihadist groups.

  4. Taliban retake Kabul — Pakistan militancy resurges

    Turning Point

    The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan provided safe haven for the TTP and other groups, fueling a cross-border insurgency that would make Pakistan the world's most terrorism-affected country by 2025.

  5. ISIS loses final territory at Baghuz

    Military

    Syrian Democratic Forces captured Baghuz, the last town held by ISIS, ending the group's physical caliphate. The organization fragmented into regional affiliates and underground cells.

  6. Mosul liberated after nine-month siege

    Military

    Iraqi forces recaptured Mosul from ISIS, marking the effective end of the group's territorial caliphate. By this point, ISIS had lost 95% of its territory.

  7. Islamic State declares caliphate — terrorism peaks

    Turning Point

    ISIS declared a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria. That year, terrorism killed roughly 33,000 people worldwide — the modern peak. The group controlled 41,000 square miles and attracted over 40,000 foreign fighters.

  8. First Global Terrorism Index published

    Measurement

    The Institute for Economics & Peace released the inaugural GTI covering 158 countries, creating a standardized annual benchmark for terrorism trends.

  9. September 11 attacks reshape global security

    Turning Point

    Al-Qaeda's attacks on the United States killed nearly 3,000 people and launched the Global War on Terror, defining counterterrorism policy for the next two decades.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

September 1992 – 2000

The defeat of the Shining Path in Peru (1992–2000)

Peru's Maoist insurgent group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) killed nearly 70,000 people over two decades. In September 1992, Peru's intelligence service captured its founder Abimael Guzmán in a Lima apartment. His arrest triggered a rapid organizational collapse. Within a few years, violence dropped by over 90%.

Then

Shining Path attacks plummeted. Guzmán called for peace talks from prison, splitting the remaining movement.

Now

Peru's experience became a case study in how decapitating a centralized insurgency can produce rapid, lasting decline — a pattern that echoes in ISIS's territorial collapse after losing its caliphate.

Why this matters now

The global terrorism decline follows a similar arc: the destruction of ISIS's centralized caliphate drove the sharpest drop. But ISIS's affiliate model means there's no single leader to capture, raising the question of whether fragmented networks can reconsolidate.

1975–1995

The decline of left-wing terrorism in Western Europe (1975–1995)

Groups like the Red Army Faction in Germany, the Red Brigades in Italy, and Action Directe in France conducted hundreds of bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings through the 1970s and 1980s. By the mid-1990s, all three had dissolved or been dismantled through a combination of arrests, internal fissures, and loss of public sympathy.

Then

Arrests of core leadership cells between 1987 and 1998 ended operational capability.

Now

Left-wing terrorism in Western Europe essentially vanished as a security threat, demonstrating that sustained decline can become permanent when the underlying ideological appeal fades.

Why this matters now

The current shift in Western terrorism — from organized religiously motivated cells to lone-wolf political attackers — parallels how European terrorism morphed rather than disappeared. The threat changed form rather than vanishing, just as today's GTI data shows religious attacks declining 82% while political attacks surged.

November 2016

Colombia's FARC demobilization (2016)

After four years of negotiations, the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace agreement ending 52 years of armed conflict that had killed over 260,000 people. Approximately 13,000 FARC fighters demobilized and the group became a political party.

Then

Violence dropped sharply in former FARC territories. Colombia's homicide rate fell to its lowest in four decades by 2019.

Now

Dissident factions that rejected the peace deal continued operating, and other armed groups expanded into vacuums left by FARC's withdrawal — demonstrating that statistical decline can coexist with localized deterioration.

Why this matters now

Colombia's experience directly mirrors the GTI's findings: national-level improvements mask the fact that violence doesn't disappear so much as migrate. Colombia remains in the GTI's top ten most-affected countries in 2025 despite the peace deal, just as the Sahel's declining death toll coexists with JNIM's expanding territorial control.

Sources

(10)
+4
Human Progress Vision of Humanity PR Newswire (IEP Press Release) Institute for Economics & Peace ASIS International / Security Management Ujasusi Our World in Data Wilson Center Vision of Humanity Vision of Humanity