In 1950, the average human lived 47 years. Today, it's 73. The global age-standardized mortality rate has dropped 67% over that span—driven not by a single breakthrough but by the compounding effects of vaccines, clean water, antibiotics, and basic sanitation reaching billions of people who previously lacked access. Lower respiratory infections (LRIs)—once the leading cause of infectious disease death—killed 2.5 million people in 2023, down 33% among children under five since 2010.
The gains aren't evenly distributed. Life expectancy ranges from 83 years in high-income regions to 62 in sub-Saharan Africa. And while infectious disease deaths have plummeted, new threats loom: antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is projected to directly cause 39 million deaths between 2025 and 2050—three deaths every minute. Still, progress continues: in January 2026, WHO reported that the global population requiring trachoma interventions fell below 100 million for the first time—a 94% reduction since 2002. Under-five mortality has dropped by more than half in 25 years, from 11 million to 4.8 million annual deaths.
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People Involved
Christopher Murray
Director, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Leading global mortality research)
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
Director-General, World Health Organization (Leading global health coordination)
Organizations Involved
WO
World Health Organization
UN Specialized Agency
Status: Primary coordinator of global health efforts
UN agency responsible for international public health, disease surveillance, and coordinating pandemic response.
IN
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Research Institute
Status: Leading source of global health data
University of Washington research center that produces the Global Burden of Disease study.
Timeline
WHO Director-General Addresses 2026 Health Challenges
Policy
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus outlines global health priorities for 2026 in media briefing, emphasizing need to accelerate progress toward SDG targets.
Trachoma Population Requiring Intervention Falls Below 100 Million
Milestone
WHO announces global population requiring interventions against trachoma dropped below 100 million for first time—a 94% decrease since 2002. 58 countries have eliminated at least one neglected tropical disease, with WHO targeting 100 countries by 2030.
GBD 2023: Chronic Respiratory Disease Study Published
Research
New Global Burden of Disease study in Nature Medicine analyzes chronic respiratory disease burden 1990-2023, revealing mortality declines especially during COVID-19 pandemic.
Global Death Rate Continues Falling Amid Health Advances
Milestone
Crude death rate at 7.67 per 1,000. Multiple countries achieve disease elimination milestones: Maldives eliminates mother-to-child HIV/syphilis/hepatitis B; Niger eliminates river blindness; Georgia, Suriname, Timor-Leste certified malaria-free.
GBD 2023: Lower Respiratory Infections Study Published
Research
Lancet Infectious Diseases publishes comprehensive GBD analysis showing LRIs caused 2.5M deaths in 2023. Child mortality from LRIs fell 33% since 2010, but LRIs remain world's leading infectious cause of death. Study attributes burden to 26 pathogens across 204 countries.
GBD 2023 Study Published in The Lancet
Research
Global Burden of Disease study confirms 67% mortality decline since 1950. Life expectancy returned to pre-pandemic levels at 73.4 years globally.
WHO Reports 1.4 Billion Living Healthier Lives
Report
World Health Statistics 2025 finds reduced tobacco use, cleaner air, and improved sanitation have expanded healthy living to 1.4 billion more people.
Landmark AMR Study Forecasts 39 Million Deaths by 2050
Research
The Lancet publishes Global Burden of Disease AMR study projecting 39.1 million deaths directly attributable to antimicrobial resistance 2025-2050. Deaths in adults 70+ from AMR increased 80% between 1990-2021. Study warns AMR could cause 1.91M annual deaths by 2050 unless interventions improve.
COVID-19 Drops from Top Cause of Death
Data
After ranking as the leading cause of death in 2021, COVID-19 falls to 20th place. Ischemic heart disease and stroke return to top positions.
Under-5 Deaths Fall to 5.5 Million
Milestone
Child mortality rate drops to 36 per 1,000—a 59% reduction from 1990, saving approximately 7 million children annually.
SDGs Replace MDGs with New Targets
Policy
Sustainable Development Goals set 2030 targets. Child mortality already cut by 53% from 1990 levels.
MDGs Set Global Health Targets
Policy
Millennium Development Goals establish targets for reducing child mortality, maternal mortality, and infectious disease deaths by 2015.
Child Mortality Baseline: 12.6 Million Annual Deaths
Data
Under-5 mortality rate stands at 93 deaths per 1,000 live births. Millennium Development Goals will target halving this rate.
Smallpox Declared Eradicated
Milestone
33rd World Health Assembly certifies smallpox eradication—the first and only infectious disease eliminated by human effort. The disease killed 300 million in the 20th century alone.
WHO Launches Smallpox Eradication Programme
Campaign
International team formed under Donald Henderson to eliminate smallpox through mass vaccination.
Global Baseline: Life Expectancy at 47 Years
Milestone
Global crude death rate approximately 20 per 1,000 population. Infectious diseases remain leading causes of death worldwide.
Scenarios
1
Mortality Decline Continues, Life Expectancy Reaches 77 by 2050
Discussed by: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, UN Population Division, The Lancet Global Health 2050 Commission
If current trends hold, global life expectancy increases by nearly 5 years by 2050, with the largest gains in sub-Saharan Africa. Non-communicable diseases become even more dominant as populations age. This scenario assumes continued investment in public health infrastructure and no major pandemic disruptions.
2
Progress Stalls as Funding Cuts and Conflicts Disrupt Health Systems
Discussed by: WHO World Health Statistics 2025, UNICEF, Global Report on Food Crises
Humanitarian funding cuts (potentially 45% reduction in 2025) and ongoing conflicts reverse gains in vulnerable regions. Twenty million children already missed essential vaccines in 2025. Maternal and child mortality targets for 2030 become unreachable. Antimicrobial resistance accelerates.
3
Longevity Breakthroughs Extend Healthy Lifespan Beyond Current Projections
Discussed by: Harvard researchers, Altos Labs, Scripps Research Institute, Cell Reports Medicine
Anti-aging research yields clinical applications: SGLT2 inhibitors lengthen telomeres, GLP-1 drugs reduce mortality, AI-identified compounds extend lifespan in animal models. If therapies reach human application, projections for 2050 life expectancy could exceed current estimates. Harvard's David Sinclair predicts age-reversing pills within 10 years.
4
Aging Population Reverses Crude Death Rate Decline
Discussed by: UN World Population Prospects 2024, The Lancet demographic analysis
Even as age-specific mortality improves, population aging pushes crude death rates higher. UN projects crude death rate rising to 9.5 per 1,000 by 2050. By 2084, global deaths exceed births for the first time. Healthcare systems strain under growing elderly populations with chronic conditions.
5
Antimicrobial Resistance Becomes Leading Cause of Death by 2050
Discussed by: Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, The Lancet, Wellcome Trust, IHME
GBD projections show AMR could directly cause 1.91 million deaths annually by 2050—8.22 million when including associated deaths. Deaths will concentrate in adults over 70 (66% of AMR deaths) and in South Asia and Latin America. The crisis stems from overuse of antibiotics in humans and agriculture, inadequate infection prevention, and slow development of new antibiotics. However, improved care of severe infections and better antibiotic access could avert 92 million deaths between 2025-2050.
Historical Context
Smallpox Eradication (1966-1980)
1966-1980
What Happened
WHO coordinated a global vaccination campaign targeting smallpox, a disease that killed 300 million people in the 20th century alone. Thousands of health workers administered half a billion vaccinations across every continent. The last natural case occurred in Somalia in 1977.
Outcome
Short Term
WHO declared smallpox eradicated in May 1980, making it the first—and still only—infectious disease eliminated by human effort.
Long Term
The $300 million program saves over $1 billion annually in avoided vaccination and treatment costs. The campaign established models for disease surveillance, ring vaccination, and global health cooperation that informed subsequent efforts against polio, measles, and COVID-19.
Why It's Relevant Today
Smallpox eradication proved coordinated global health campaigns can eliminate diseases entirely. The 2025 disease elimination milestones—Niger eliminating river blindness, Maldives achieving triple elimination of mother-to-child transmission—follow the template established in 1980.
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
1918-1920
What Happened
The H1N1 influenza virus infected an estimated 500 million people—one-third of the global population—killing 17-50 million worldwide. The U.S. lost 675,000 people, more than all its 20th-century wars combined. Unlike typical flu, this strain killed young adults at unusually high rates.
Outcome
Short Term
The pandemic ended by 1920 as populations developed immunity. No vaccines or antivirals existed; antibiotics couldn't treat secondary bacterial infections that caused most deaths.
Long Term
The 1918 virus's descendants continue circulating as seasonal flu. The pandemic demonstrated how quickly infectious disease could spread without modern medicine—and why declining mortality rates since then represent a genuine transformation in human capability.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 1918 pandemic occurred when global life expectancy was roughly 30-35 years. Today's 73-year life expectancy and 7.67 deaths per 1,000 rate reflect the development of vaccines, antibiotics, and public health infrastructure that didn't exist a century ago.
Child Mortality Decline (1990-2020)
1990-2020
What Happened
In 1990, 12.6 million children died before age 5 annually—93 deaths per 1,000 live births. The Millennium Development Goals set targets to halve this rate. Countries expanded vaccination, nutrition programs, oral rehydration therapy, and clean water access.
Outcome
Short Term
By 2020, under-5 deaths fell to 5.5 million annually—36 per 1,000 births, a 59% reduction. East Asia achieved a 68% decline.
Long Term
Seven million fewer children die each year than in 1990. However, progress has slowed since 2015, and huge disparities remain: Nigeria's child mortality is 30 times higher than Italy's.
Why It's Relevant Today
Child mortality reduction exemplifies how targeted public health investment compounds over decades. The 2025 GBD study shows this progress continuing, but also identifies concerning trends in adolescent and young adult mortality that weren't previously measured.
