US and Israel wage sustained air campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure

Overview

Iran's nuclear infrastructure has become the primary target of an intensifying US-Israeli air campaign that began February 28 and has now entered its sixth week. The Natanz uranium enrichment complex has been struck four times. On April 4, 2026, US and Israeli forces expanded the campaign to strike the Bushehr nuclear power plant and the Mahshahr petrochemical hub in southwestern Iran. The strikes killed at least one security guard and wounded five workers. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that strikes on civilian nuclear power plants cross 'the reddest line' of nuclear safety, raising the risk of a radiological catastrophe. Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated growing military capability: on April 4, Iranian air defenses downed two US warplanes, marking the first confirmed loss of American aircraft in the conflict.

The campaign has killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and decimated Iran's military leadership. It closed the Strait of Hormuz to Western shipping and triggered Iranian missile and drone attacks across all six Gulf Cooperation Council states—an unprecedented regional escalation. Yet six weeks of bombardment have produced no ceasefire negotiations, no shift in Iran's defiant posture, and widening fissures between American and Israeli objectives. The expansion to civilian nuclear infrastructure signals either desperation to achieve decisive results or a fundamental shift in targeting doctrine. It carries the risk of triggering a nuclear accident that could dwarf the military conflict itself.

Why it matters

A war to prevent Iran's nuclear capability is altering the Middle East's security order and threatening global energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Key Indicators

Strikes on Natanz

The enrichment complex has been hit four times since February 28, with entrance buildings destroyed and the underground facility rendered inaccessible.

~900

Strikes in first 12 hours

US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes on Day 1, hitting missile sites, air defenses, and leadership targets.

2,300+

Estimated deaths across region

Casualties span at least a dozen countries, including 165 killed at a girls' school adjacent to a naval base in Minab.

US warplanes downed

Iranian air defenses shot down two American aircraft on April 4, marking first confirmed US losses in the campaign.

Ceasefire negotiations

Six weeks into the campaign with no diplomatic talks underway. Iran's foreign minister has stated: 'We never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation.'

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People Involved

Donald Trump

Directing Operation Epic Fury; stated 'practically nothing left to target'

Benjamin Netanyahu

Directing Israeli operations under codename 'Roar of the Lion'

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Killed February 28, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei

Leading Iran's war response as newly appointed supreme leader

Pete Hegseth

Leading Pentagon briefings on Iran campaign

Rafael Mariano Grossi

Monitoring nuclear sites; warning of radiological catastrophe risk following Bushehr strikes

Abbas Araghchi

Rejecting ceasefire talks while offering to dilute enriched uranium

Organizations Involved

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

UN Agency

Monitoring nuclear sites and radiation levels during active conflict

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog, responsible for verifying that nuclear materials are not diverted to weapons use.

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)

Government Agency

Maintaining operations at unaffected facilities

Iran's civilian nuclear agency, which oversees all enrichment, research, and nuclear energy facilities.

Timeline

February 2026 April 2026

9 events Latest: April 4th, 2026 · 3 months ago

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April 2026
US-Israeli strikes hit Bushehr nuclear plant and Mahshahr petrochemical hub; Iran downs two US warplanes
Latest Military

US and Israeli forces struck the Bushehr nuclear power plant and the Special Petrochemical Zone of Mahshahr in southwestern Iran, killing one security guard and wounding five workers. Iranian air defenses shot down two US warplanes, marking the first confirmed American aircraft losses in the six-week campaign. The strikes on civilian nuclear infrastructure represent an escalation in targeting doctrine and raise IAEA concerns about radiological safety.
April 4th, 2026
March 2026
Fourth strike on Natanz; Iran fires missiles at Diego Garcia and Arad
Military

US and Israeli forces struck Natanz for the fourth time on Nowruz, the Persian New Year. Iran retaliated by firing two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia (~4,000 km away) — neither hit the base — and striking the Israeli city of Arad with a 450 kg warhead that destroyed three buildings and wounded 64 people.
March 21st, 2026
Iran rejects ceasefire but offers to dilute enriched uranium
Diplomatic

Foreign Minister Araghchi told CBS that Iran was ready to dilute enriched material to lower percentages but rejected ceasefire negotiations, demanding a permanent end to strikes and compensation as preconditions.
March 15th, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran's new supreme leader
Political

Ali Khamenei's son was appointed supreme leader eleven days after his father's death, consolidating leadership amid ongoing bombardment.
March 9th, 2026
Iran fires 500+ missiles and 2,000 drones; attacks all six Gulf states
Military

By Day 7, Iran had fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones — approximately 40% at Israel and 60% at US targets. For the first time in history, Iran attacked all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, hitting energy infrastructure and civilian airports.
March 5th, 2026
IAEA confirms Natanz entrance buildings destroyed
Assessment

Satellite imagery showed entrance buildings at Natanz were damaged, making the underground Fuel Enrichment Plant inaccessible. The core underground facility was not confirmed destroyed. No radiological consequences expected.
March 3rd, 2026
First confirmed strike on Natanz; IRGC headquarters destroyed
Military

Iran's ambassador to the IAEA confirmed Natanz had been struck. The IRGC's Malek-Ashtar building in Tehran was completely destroyed. IAEA convened an emergency Board of Governors meeting.
March 2nd, 2026
February 2026
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury / Roar of the Lion
Military

Nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeted Iran's missiles, air defenses, leadership, and military infrastructure. Supreme Leader Khamenei and dozens of senior officials were killed. A strike on a naval base in Minab also hit an adjacent girls' school, killing approximately 165 people.
February 28th, 2026
Oman announces diplomatic breakthrough with Iran
Diplomatic

Oman's foreign minister said Iran had agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to accept full IAEA verification. Peace was reportedly 'within reach.'
February 27th, 2026

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

June 1981

Israel's strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor (1981)

Eight Israeli F-16s destroyed Iraq's French-built Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad in a precision airstrike. Israel faced universal condemnation, including from the United States. Ten Iraqi soldiers and one French civilian were killed.

Then

Iraq's overt nuclear capability was eliminated. Israel suffered diplomatic isolation but no lasting consequences.

Now

Evidence uncovered after 2003 revealed the strike motivated Saddam Hussein to launch a covert nuclear weapons program — committing a tenfold increase in scientists and funding. Only the 1991 Gulf War and subsequent inspections dismantled it.

Why this matters now

This is the foundational precedent for strikes on nuclear facilities — and its central lesson is that military action can accelerate covert proliferation rather than prevent it. The question hanging over the 2026 campaign is whether Iran follows Iraq's post-Osirak path.

September 2007

Israel's destruction of Syria's Al-Kibar reactor (2007)

Eight Israeli jets destroyed a covert North Korean-built nuclear reactor at Al-Kibar in eastern Syria. The strike lasted three minutes. Israel maintained total secrecy for over a decade, only acknowledging the operation in 2018. The IAEA confirmed in 2011 that the site was an undeclared reactor.

Then

Syria's nuclear weapons program was permanently ended. Damascus did not retaliate and initially denied the facility existed.

Now

Unlike Osirak, there was no covert restart — Syria lacked the resources and was soon consumed by civil war. This remains the most successful preventive strike against a nuclear facility.

Why this matters now

Al-Kibar is the model the 2026 planners likely hoped to replicate: a clean strike that ends a nuclear program. But Iran's program is vastly more dispersed, hardened, and advanced than Syria's single early-stage reactor, making a comparable outcome far less achievable.

2007–2010

Stuxnet cyberattack on Natanz (2007–2010)

A US-Israeli cyberweapon, codenamed 'Olympic Games,' caused approximately 1,000 of Iran's 5,000 centrifuges at Natanz to spin erratically and destroy themselves while reporting normal operations to human operators. The worm was discovered publicly in June 2010.

Then

Iran's enrichment capacity was significantly disrupted, with recovery taking until late 2011. US estimates concluded the attack delayed Iran's weapons capability by at least 18 months.

Now

The delay was tactical, not strategic. Iran rebuilt and expanded, eventually operating roughly 18,000 centrifuges and enriching to 60% purity. Stuxnet also established the precedent for state-sponsored cyberweapons targeting critical infrastructure.

Why this matters now

Stuxnet targeted the same Natanz facility now under kinetic attack. It demonstrated that even sophisticated covert sabotage could only delay, not eliminate, Iran's nuclear ambitions — arguably contributing to the logic that only military force could achieve a more permanent result.