Gulf Coast LNG buildout reshapes global energy trade
Built World
American liquefied natural gas terminals multiply along Louisiana and Texas coasts, with Venture Global targeting 100+ million metric tons annual capacity
American liquefied natural gas terminals multiply along Louisiana and Texas coasts, with Venture Global targeting 100+ million metric tons annual capacity
When Cheniere Energy shipped America's first cargo of liquefied natural gas from Louisiana in February 2016, the United States was a net gas importer. A decade later, the country leads the world in LNG exports, with capacity set to more than double by 2029. Venture Global's aggressive expansion—including the $15.1 billion Calcasieu Pass 2 terminal under construction since mid-2025 and a major brownfield expansion of Plaquemines LNG announced in November 2025—positions the company to produce over 100 million metric tons annually by 2028, rivaling Qatar and Australia as a global LNG superpower.
The stakes extend far beyond Louisiana's marshlands. Europe depends on American LNG to replace Russian pipeline gas cut off after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while Asian buyers compete for cargoes that increasingly determine industrial competitiveness. Yet the buildout faces mounting headwinds: Venture Global lost a $1 billion-plus arbitration to BP in October 2025 over contract breaches during the 2022 price spike, though it won separate cases against Shell and Repsol; environmental groups have sued over CP2's air permits; and local fishermen argue the terminals are destroying Gulf livelihoods. The projects nonetheless generate billions in investment and thousands of jobs in parishes where hurricanes have devastated other industries.
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People Involved
Michael Sabel
Co-CEO and Co-Chairman, Venture Global LNG (Leading company through rapid expansion, arbitration disputes, and stock recovery; navigating $1B+ BP damages claim and regulatory challenges)
Travis Dardar
Fisherman and Founder, Fishermen Involved in Sustaining our Heritage (Leading legal challenge against CP2 project)
Bill McKibben
Climate Activist and Author (Campaigning against Gulf Coast LNG expansion)
Organizations Involved
VE
Venture Global LNG
Energy Company
Status: Largest U.S. LNG exporter by facilities under development; stock recovered from IPO collapse; facing $1B+ arbitration damages but winning other contract disputes
Washington, D.C.-based company operating Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines LNG terminals in Louisiana, with CP2 under construction.
FE
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
Federal Agency
Status: Primary regulator managing CP2 approval and Plaquemines expansion review; facing legal challenges over environmental assessment adequacy
Independent agency regulating interstate transmission of electricity, natural gas, and oil, including LNG export terminal permits.
U.
U.S. Department of Energy
Federal Agency
Status: Authorizes LNG exports to non-free-trade-agreement countries
Federal agency responsible for authorizing LNG exports, particularly to countries without free trade agreements with the U.S.
CH
Cheniere Energy
Energy Company
Status: Operates America's first and second LNG export terminals
Houston-based company that pioneered U.S. LNG exports, operating Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.
Timeline
Worley Awarded CP2 Phase 2 EPC Contract
Operations
Venture Global expands Worley's role to include engineering, procurement, and construction for CP2 Phase 2, signaling acceleration of the project's second phase development.
Record U.S. Natural Gas Production Forecast
Market
U.S. Energy Information Administration projects record-high natural gas production in 2026-2027, driven by rising prices and proximity to Gulf Coast LNG terminals including CP2.
Venture Global Wins Repsol Arbitration
Legal
International Chamber of Commerce tribunal rules in favor of Venture Global in dispute with Spain's Repsol over LNG cargo sales during commissioning phase, following similar win against Shell in August 2025.
Venture Global Files Plaquemines Expansion with FERC
Regulatory
Company seeks federal approval to expand Plaquemines LNG capacity by 40% to 58 MTPA through three additional phases, representing approximately $18 billion in additional investment and positioning Venture Global to produce over 100 MTPA across all facilities.
Analysis reveals contrasting ICC tribunal decisions: Shell win for Venture Global in August 2025 versus BP loss in October 2025, both involving identical core facts about commissioning cargo sales during 2022 price spike.
Gulf Coast LNG Construction Surge Accelerates
Operations
Two major megaprojects broke ground in 2025 on Gulf Coast, including $2 billion LNG pipeline and Sempra's $14 billion Port Arthur expansion, reflecting 40% projected global LNG demand growth through 2030.
Venture Global Loses BP Arbitration
Legal
ICC tribunal finds Venture Global breached obligations to BP, with potential damages exceeding $1 billion pending quantum hearing in 2026.
Environmental Groups Sue Over CP2 Air Permit
Legal
Louisiana Bucket Brigade, Sierra Club, and Environmental Integrity Project file federal lawsuit in Fifth Circuit challenging Louisiana DEQ's Clean Air Act permit for CP2, citing inadequate pollution controls and health risks to Cameron Parish residents.
Environmental Groups Sue Over CP2 Air Permit
Legal
Sierra Club and allies file federal lawsuit challenging the Clean Air Act permit issued for CP2, citing inadequate pollution controls.
Venture Global Wins Shell Arbitration
Legal
International Chamber of Commerce tribunal rules Venture Global did not breach its contract with Shell over commissioning cargo sales.
Venture Global Announces CP2 Final Investment Decision
Investment
Company confirms $15.1 billion in financing for CP2 Phase 1, the largest standalone project financing in history, with first LNG expected in 2027.
FERC Reauthorizes CP2
Regulatory
After completing supplemental environmental review ordered by appeals court, FERC issues final approval for the CP2 terminal.
Calcasieu Pass Enters Commercial Operations
Operations
Venture Global's first terminal formally enters commercial service after years of commissioning and controversy over contract disputes.
Venture Global Announces Plaquemines Brownfield Expansion
Investment
Company announces $18 billion expansion of Plaquemines LNG with 24 additional trains, increasing capacity from 27 MTPA to over 45 MTPA, with Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry in attendance.
Venture Global Goes Public
Financial
Company prices IPO at $25 per share, raising $1.75 billion at a $60.5 billion valuation—the largest U.S. energy sector IPO in four years.
Trump Reverses LNG Pause
Regulatory
On Inauguration Day, President Trump signs executive order directing Department of Energy to expedite review of pending LNG export applications.
Plaquemines LNG Ships First Cargo
Operations
Venture Global's second major facility, Plaquemines LNG Phase 1, begins exports, becoming the eighth U.S. LNG terminal.
Appeals Court Reverses CP2 Approval
Legal
D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals vacates FERC's CP2 authorization, ruling the environmental impact statement failed to adequately assess air pollution effects.
FERC Approves CP2 in Split Vote
Regulatory
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approves Venture Global's CP2 project 2-1, authorizing construction of the massive terminal adjacent to Calcasieu Pass.
Biden Administration Pauses LNG Approvals
Regulatory
Department of Energy halts review of new LNG export permits to non-free-trade-agreement countries, citing need to study environmental and economic impacts.
Calcasieu Pass Begins Production
Operations
Venture Global's first facility starts producing LNG in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, becoming the seventh U.S. export terminal.
Venture Global Reaches First FID
Investment
Venture Global announces final investment decision for its first project, Calcasieu Pass, beginning the company's rapid expansion.
First U.S. LNG Export Cargo Ships
Milestone
Cheniere's Sabine Pass terminal loads the first cargo of American LNG for export, marking the country's transition from gas importer to exporter.
FERC Approves First U.S. LNG Export Terminal
Regulatory
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission grants Cheniere Energy approval to build the Sabine Pass liquefaction facility in Louisiana, the first LNG export terminal in the lower 48 states.
Scenarios
1
U.S. Dominates Global LNG by 2030
Discussed by: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy
All major Gulf Coast projects complete on schedule, with U.S. capacity reaching 166 million metric tons annually by 2030—roughly one-third of global supply. European and Asian buyers lock in long-term contracts, cementing American market power. Qatar's expansion keeps pace as the primary competitor, but Australia stagnates.
2
Legal Challenges Delay Wave of Projects
Discussed by: Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Southern Environmental Law Center
Federal courts side with environmental challengers on multiple projects, requiring new environmental reviews that push construction timelines by years. CP2 faces injunctions over air permits. The pattern emboldens further litigation against Golden Pass, Rio Grande LNG, and future terminals, creating regulatory uncertainty that chills investment.
3
Contract Disputes Undermine Industry Credibility
Discussed by: Energy analysts at Bloomberg, Reuters, arbitration specialists
Venture Global's arbitration losses multiply as BP, Repsol, Edison, and others win claims totaling billions. The precedent makes European and Asian buyers wary of new long-term contracts with U.S. exporters, particularly smaller players. Qatar and other state-backed competitors gain advantage by offering more reliable contract terms.
4
LNG Oversupply Crashes Prices, Stalls Expansion
Discussed by: International Energy Agency, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, S&P Global
New capacity from the U.S., Qatar, and other producers floods the market faster than demand grows. Spot prices collapse below break-even for marginal projects. Several proposed terminals fail to reach final investment decision. Existing operators struggle with returns, leading to consolidation.
5
Venture Global Becomes Global LNG Powerhouse by 2028
Discussed by: Energy analysts, Venture Global leadership, industry observers
All three Venture Global facilities (Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines expanded, CP2) reach full capacity by 2028, enabling the company to produce over 100 MTPA annually and challenge Qatar and Australia for global market leadership. Strong arbitration track record (2 wins, 1 loss) stabilizes customer confidence despite BP damages. Plaquemines expansion receives FERC approval in 2026.
6
Arbitration Cascade Undermines Venture Global Credibility
Discussed by: Energy analysts, arbitration specialists, Bloomberg, Reuters
Remaining arbitration claims from Edison, Galp, Orlen, and Unipec result in additional billion-dollar awards against Venture Global, totaling $5+ billion in damages. Precedent makes European and Asian buyers reluctant to sign new long-term contracts with U.S. exporters, particularly smaller players. Qatar and state-backed competitors gain market advantage.
7
Fifth Circuit Blocks CP2 Over Environmental Violations
Discussed by: Sierra Club, Environmental Integrity Project, Southern Environmental Law Center
Federal appeals court sides with environmental challengers on Clean Air Act permit, requiring new environmental review and construction injunction. Delay pushes CP2 startup from late 2027 to 2028 or beyond, creating regulatory uncertainty that chills investment in other Gulf Coast projects and emboldens litigation against Golden Pass and Rio Grande LNG.
Historical Context
Sabine Pass LNG Transformation (2012-2016)
2012-2016
What Happened
Cheniere Energy converted its Sabine Pass import terminal into the first U.S. LNG export facility, a $20 billion bet that America's shale gas boom would make the country a net exporter. The project required years of regulatory approvals, massive construction, and novel financing structures.
Outcome
Short Term
First cargo shipped February 2016, proving the technical and commercial viability of American LNG exports.
Long Term
Established the template for Gulf Coast LNG development and proved the U.S. could compete with Qatar and Australia.
Why It's Relevant Today
CP2 follows the playbook Cheniere pioneered—Venture Global now uses similar modular construction and financing approaches but at even larger scale and faster pace.
Qatar LNG Moratorium and Expansion (2005-2017)
2005-2017
What Happened
Qatar imposed a 12-year moratorium on new development of its North Field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir, to study reservoir management and avoid overproduction. During this pause, Australia and later the U.S. expanded aggressively.
Outcome
Short Term
Qatar maintained stable production but lost market share as competitors grew.
Long Term
Qatar lifted the moratorium in 2017 and is now pursuing an 85% capacity expansion to 142 million metric tons by 2030.
Why It's Relevant Today
The race between U.S. and Qatari expansion will determine who dominates the 2030s LNG market—both are adding massive capacity simultaneously.
European Energy Crisis (2022)
2022
What Happened
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent pipeline gas cutoffs forced Europe to rapidly diversify away from Russian supply. Natural gas prices spiked to record highs, and European buyers scrambled for LNG cargoes on spot markets.
Outcome
Short Term
U.S. LNG exports to Europe surged, with American gas replacing Russian pipeline flows.
Long Term
Europe has permanently reduced dependence on Russian gas, creating sustained demand for American LNG.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2022 crisis validated Gulf Coast expansion—European energy security now depends on terminals like CP2 operating reliably for decades.
