New Mexico's largest reservoir falls to lowest level in 55 years

Overview

Updated Sep 6

Boat ramps at Elephant Butte Lake State Park sit buried in sediment. In late July the lake dropped to 1.4 percent of capacity, its lowest level since 1971.

Elephant Butte is New Mexico's largest reservoir, storing water for farms in New Mexico and Texas and part of El Paso's drinking supply. Years of drought and the earliest snowmelt on record at the Rio Grande's headwaters drained it. Agricultural releases stopped on July 28, letting the lake begin a slow refill.

Why it matters

About 15 million people depend on the Rio Grande for drinking water; this reservoir's low shows how fast that supply can run out.

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Key Indicators

1.4%

Capacity at July low point

Elephant Butte's conservation capacity is about 1.96 million acre-feet; 1.4 percent was the July 28 low.

27,278 acre-feet

Water in storage at the low point

Stored water on July 28, 2026, against a conservation capacity of about 1.96 million acre-feet.

55 years

Time since the reservoir was this low

The reservoir last sat near this level in 1971, before the current drought and heavy upstream use.

77%

Drop in a lakeside business's revenue, July to August

A business owner told KFOX14 that revenue fell 77 percent as boat access collapsed.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Trager

Owner of a lakeside business in Elephant Butte

Reported a 77 percent revenue drop from July to August 2026

Jack Herrera

Journalist, Texas Monthly contributor

Spent a year traveling the Rio Grande from source to delta

Holcomb

City official in Elephant Butte, New Mexico

Pushed for a local disaster declaration and state aid

Organizations Involved

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Federal agency

Operates Elephant Butte Reservoir and manages Rio Grande water releases

Builds and operates dams and reservoirs across the western United States, including Elephant Butte.

New Mexico State Parks

State agency

Manages Elephant Butte Lake State Park amid falling water levels

Runs Elephant Butte Lake State Park, where falling water left boat ramps covered in sediment.

NASA Western Water Action Office

Federal research program

Provides satellite data tools to water managers on the Rio Grande

Supports projects that give water managers satellite data on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and river heights.

Rio Grande Compact

Interstate water compact

Governs how Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas divide Rio Grande water

Signed in 1938 by Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas, dividing the Rio Grande's waters among the three states.

Timeline

July 2025 September 2026

9 events Latest: September 4th, 2026 · 2 months ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

September 2026
Slow refill begins
Latest Context

By September 4 the reservoir held about 27,621 acre-feet, up slightly from 27,278 at its low, as releases stayed off.
September 4th, 2026
Report: reservoir at 1.4 percent, lowest since 1971
Report

ScienceDaily reports Elephant Butte at 1.4 percent capacity, the lowest since 1971, as drought and record-early snowmelt strain Rio Grande supplies.
September 3rd, 2026
August 2026
Local disaster declaration approved
Government Action

Elephant Butte leaders approve a local disaster declaration and request state funds. The state emergency agency says the situation does not currently meet its disaster standard.
August 15th, 2026
July 2026
Reservoir hits 1.4 percent; releases stop
Critical Event

Elephant Butte reaches 1.4 percent capacity, its lowest since 1971. Agricultural water releases end that day, beginning a slow refill.
July 28th, 2026
State Parks warns boat ramps hazardous
Statement

New Mexico State Parks announces debris clearing and adjusted ramp access. Bureau of Reclamation confirms releases continue through July 28.
July 22nd, 2026
Reservoir at 1.8 percent
Context

Elephant Butte fell to 1.8 percent capacity, a week before its modern low.
July 21st, 2026
June 2026
Reservoir drops to 4.1 percent
Context

By late June the reservoir had fallen to 4.1 percent capacity.
June 28th, 2026
April 2026
Spring runoff lifts reservoir to 12.8 percent
Context

Snowmelt raised the reservoir to about 12.8 percent capacity in late April, the seasonal high.
April 28th, 2026
July 2025
A year ago: reservoir at 3.7 percent capacity
Context

Elephant Butte sat at 3.7 percent capacity, already near record lows after years of drought.
July 28th, 2025

Scenarios

Wet winter refills Elephant Butte above 10 percent

Possible Resolves by May 1, 2027

Discussed by: Local growers quoted by KFOX14; National Weather Service seasonal outlooks

A wet winter across the southern Rockies rebuilds snowpack at the Rio Grande headwaters. Spring 2027 runoff lifts Elephant Butte above 10 percent capacity, restoring some boat access and partial farm deliveries for the 2027 season.

Aridification holds; reservoir stays near empty

Possible Resolves by May 1, 2027

Discussed by: Jack Herrera; researchers cited in his reporting who describe the region's drying as permanent

Another dry winter keeps Elephant Butte below 5 percent capacity through spring 2027. Farm releases stay suspended, and El Paso leans more heavily on groundwater and alternate supplies, which could force the city into mandatory conservation.

Supreme Court rules on Rio Grande Compact dispute

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Legal analysts and filings in the Texas v. New Mexico compact case

The U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling in the long-running dispute over whether New Mexico's groundwater pumping shortchanges water Texas is owed under the 1938 compact. A decision could reset how the three states account for water and what must flow through Elephant Butte.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2000–present

Lake Mead's twenty-year decline (2000s–present)

Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States, sat nearly full in 2000. A two-decade drought and over-allocation on the Colorado River drained it to about 27 percent capacity by 2022, exposing old boats, bodies, and a sunken town.

Then

Mandatory cuts hit Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico as the federal government declared shortages.

Now

The Colorado River crisis pushed states into renegotiating water rights and showed that even the largest reservoirs can run out faster than supply agreements assume.

Why this matters now

Elephant Butte faces the same forces on a smaller river: aridification plus legal over-allocation. The Colorado's slow collapse is a preview of what the Rio Grande's largest reservoir is now living through.

2012–2016

California drought and Lake Oroville (2012–2016)

California's worst drought on record drained Lake Oroville, its second-largest reservoir, to about 32 percent of capacity in 2016. The state ordered cities to cut water use by 25 percent.

Then

Farmers took land out of production, cities imposed conservation, and the state passed groundwater rules.

Now

A wet 2017 refilled Oroville, showing how quickly one good winter can reverse years of decline.

Why this matters now

It is the model for the optimistic Elephant Butte scenario: one wet winter across the Rockies could refill the reservoir and end the crisis within a season.

1930–1939

The Dust Bowl (1930s)

A decade of severe drought across the Southern Plains met decades of over-plowing and poor land management. Dust storms buried farms, crops failed, and millions left the region in the largest migration in U.S. history.

Then

Congress created the Soil Conservation Service, and federal water projects reshaped the West.

Now

The era fixed arid-land water law and dam-building policy that still govern reservoirs like Elephant Butte.

Why this matters now

It is the clearest precedent for drought and overuse compounding into crisis, and for how policy built in the aftermath still shapes western water today.