Kazakhstan reports North Aral Sea recovery gains at COP31

Overview

Updated 9 minutes ago

The North Aral Sea holds 23.4 billion cubic metres of water, up from 18.9 billion in 2022. Kazakhstan's deputy environment minister presented the figures at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, on November 13.

The gain comes from a 2005 dam that traps the Syr Darya's flow in the northern basin, plus irrigation savings that send more water downstream. Kazakhstan now plans to rebuild the dam and raise the basin to 34 billion cubic metres.

Why it matters

A sea declared lost is partly refilling, showing how one dam and water savings can reverse decades of damage.

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Key Indicators

23.4 billion m³

Water volume in the North Aral Sea

Up from 18.9 billion cubic metres in 2022.

24%

Increase in water volume since 2022

The gain reported at COP31 in November 2026.

36%

Surface area growth over two decades

The sea's surface has expanded since the Kokaral Dam was completed in 2005.

50%

Reduction in salinity

Fresher water has supported fish populations and surrounding ecosystems.

34 billion m³

Target water volume under next phase

A World Bank partnership aims for this volume and roughly 3,913 square kilometres of surface.

56 million

Saxaul seedlings planted, 2021–2025

Drought-resistant shrubs planted on the dried seabed to limit salt and dust.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Mansur Oshurbayev

Deputy Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Kazakhstan

Presented North Aral restoration figures at COP31

Nurlan Aldamzharov

First Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Kazakhstan

Overseeing water projects tied to the North Aral

Yeris Ismayilov

Acting head of the Department for Regulation of Water Resources Use, Kazakhstan

Coordinating irrigation modernization work

Organizations Involved

Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation

National government ministry

Manages Syr Darya flow and the North Aral restoration

Kazakhstan's ministry responsible for directing at least 2 billion cubic metres of water a year into the North Aral via the Syr Darya.

Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources

National government ministry

Presented restoration results at COP31

The ministry that presented Kazakhstan's North Aral recovery figures on the international stage.

World Bank Group

International financial institution

Financed the Kokaral Dam and is partnering on its next phase

The lender behind the 2005 Kokaral Dam and a partner on the planned reconstruction.

Timeline

1960 November 2026

9 events Latest: 2 days ago

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November 2026
Kazakhstan presents restoration results at COP31
Latest Statement

Officials reported the 24% volume gain and outlined a next phase to reach 34 billion cubic metres.
2 days ago
August 2026
Water volume reaches 23.4 billion cubic metres
Measurement

The ministry reported the highest level in years, up nearly 5 billion cubic metres since 2022.
August 2026
2025
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan sign shared water agreement
Diplomacy

The deal followed more than a decade of negotiations on joint management of shared water.
2025
2022
North Aral water volume measured at 18.9 billion cubic metres
Measurement

The baseline for the 24% gain reported four years later.
2022
2021
Saxaul planting begins on the dried seabed
Environment

Kazakhstan planted more than 56 million seedlings through 2025 to limit salt and dust.
2021
2008
Fish processing plants reopen and exports resume
Economy

The recovering fishery restarted commercial exports from the region.
2008
2007
Fish catch climbs to about 2,000 tonnes
Environment

Catches rose from about 50 tonnes in 2004, according to World Bank figures.
2007
2005
Kokaral Dam completed
Infrastructure

The World Bank-backed dam retained Syr Darya water in the northern basin instead of letting it drain south.
2005
1960
Soviet planners divert the rivers feeding the Aral Sea
Environment

The rivers were redirected to irrigate cotton and other crops, and the sea began to shrink.
1960

Scenarios

Kokaral Dam reconstruction begins in 2027 as planned

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Kazakhstan's Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and the World Bank

Kazakhstan says design work for the second phase of the Kokaral Dam is under way, with construction planned for 2027–2030. Starting on time would keep the 34-billion-cubic-metre target within reach. A slip in financing or design would push the schedule back.

North Aral Sea reaches 34 billion cubic metres

Possible Resolves by End of 2032

Discussed by: World Bank and Kazakh government project documents

The next phase targets 34 billion cubic metres and a surface area near 3,913 square kilometres. Reaching it depends on the rebuilt dam, steady Syr Darya flow and water saved through irrigation upgrades. Each of those has its own failure point.

Syr Darya shortfall reverses North Aral gains

Unlikely Resolves by End of 2029

Discussed by: AnewZ reporting on the sea's dependence on regional water cooperation

The North Aral depends on the Syr Darya, which crosses several Central Asian countries. Drought or increased upstream diversion could cut inflow and shrink the sea below its 2026 level, undoing part of the recovery.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1960s

Aral Sea diversion (1960s)

The Aral Sea was the fourth-largest lake in the world. Starting in the 1960s, Soviet planners diverted the rivers feeding it to irrigate cotton and other crops. Over the following decades, much of the sea disappeared.

Then

Fishing communities lost their livelihoods as the water retreated from former ports.

Now

The exposed seabed became a source of dust contaminated with salt and agricultural chemicals.

Why this matters now

The damage set the scale of the problem Kazakhstan is now trying to reverse, basin by basin.

2005

Kokaral Dam (2005)

Kazakhstan completed the Kokaral Dam with World Bank financing. The dam held Syr Darya water in the smaller northern basin instead of letting it drain into the shrinking southern section.

Then

NASA satellite images showed substantial recovery between 2005 and 2007, much of it in the first year.

Now

Fish catches rose from around 50 tonnes in 2004 to roughly 2,000 tonnes in 2007, and exports resumed in 2008.

Why this matters now

The 2026 gains are the accumulated result of that 2005 intervention. The next phase would rebuild the same dam to raise the water level further.