Overview
The U.S. just lit up central Syria. After an ISIS-linked attacker killed two U.S. soldiers and a U.S. interpreter near Palmyra on December 13, CENTCOM answered with “Operation Hawkeye Strike,” hitting more than 70 ISIS targets with jets, helicopters, and rocket artillery.
This isn’t only about payback. It’s a test of whether the U.S. can keep a limited counter-ISIS mission “limited” while partnering with a new Syrian government—without getting pulled into a bigger fight, or suffering more attacks from the one actor that thrives on chaos: ISIS.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
CENTCOM ran Hawkeye Strike and is the scoreboard-keeper for U.S. counter-ISIS operations in theater.
ISIS survives by exploiting governance gaps and proving it can still kill, even after territorial defeat.
Jordan’s air support signals regional buy-in and adds political cover for a bigger strike package.
Damascus is trying to prove it can be a partner against ISIS—while ISIS tries to prove it can penetrate Damascus.
A broad coalition whose credibility depends on members sharing risk when ISIS flares up.
Timeline
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CENTCOM launches Operation Hawkeye Strike across central Syria
Military OperationCENTCOM struck more than 70 ISIS targets with over 100 precision munitions; Jordan provided air support.
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Congress permanently repeals sweeping Assad-era sanctions; Damascus celebrates
PolicySyria welcomed permanent repeal of major sanctions as tied to reconstruction and counterterrorism benchmarks.
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Dover dignified transfer underscores the political cost of a “small” Syria mission
Domestic PoliticsTrump and Hegseth attended the return of the three Americans killed in Syria, with retaliation promised publicly.
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Palmyra ambush kills two U.S. soldiers and a U.S. interpreter
AttackU.S. officials said a lone ISIS-linked attacker struck U.S. and Syrian personnel near Palmyra; the attacker was killed.
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Trump hosts Syria’s al-Sharaa at the White House; Syria joins the anti-ISIS coalition politically
DiplomacyThe meeting accelerated U.S.–Syria coordination against ISIS while Damascus pushed for permanent sanctions repeal.
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Pentagon plans to shrink Syria footprint below 1,000 troops
Force PostureOfficials said forces would consolidate to fewer locations as the counter-ISIS mission continued.
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Trump signs executive order terminating the Syria sanctions program
PolicyThe White House framed sanctions removal as support for stability while keeping terrorism-linked designations in place.
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Treasury issues General License 25 as Washington begins unwinding Syria sanctions
PolicyOFAC authorized broad transactions with Syria as part of a sanctions-relief package tied to the post-Assad transition.
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Pentagon admits Syria troop presence is far higher than previously briefed
DisclosureThe Defense Department said about 2,000 U.S. troops were in Syria, versus the repeatedly cited 900 core figure.
Scenarios
ISIS Absorbs the Blows, Then Tries Another ‘Cheap’ Attack on U.S. Personnel
Discussed by: Reuters reporting on the ambush and follow-on strikes; analysts tracking ISIS insurgent tactics in Syria’s Badia.
If ISIS retains sleeper capability and freedom of movement in central Syria, it will look for another low-cost spectacle: a lone-gunman attack, a roadside bomb, or an insider-style incident during a meeting. The trigger is simple: ISIS believes U.S.–Syrian coordination is politically fragile and wants to rupture it. The U.S. response would likely be more raids and strikes—effective tactically, but proof the mission remains dangerous and ongoing.
Washington Quietly Expands the Mission: More Raids, More Enablers, More Targets
Discussed by: CENTCOM operational tempo statements; defense press coverage of troop posture and consolidation plans.
If post-strike assessments show ISIS infrastructure survived—or if attacks continue—CENTCOM will argue for a sustained surge in tempo: expanded partner raids, broader target sets, and more ISR/aviation coverage. The key trigger is another U.S. casualty event or credible intel about external plotting. This path doesn’t require a formal “escalation announcement”; it happens by accumulating sorties, deployments, and authorities until the mission is effectively bigger than advertised.
Damascus Fails the Vetting Test, and the U.S. Pulls Back from Joint Engagements
Discussed by: AP and Reuters reporting on claims the attacker had ties to Syrian security forces; policy watchers focused on state-capacity risks.
If investigations show serious insider penetration—missed warnings, compromised units, or repeat infiltration—the U.S. may downgrade joint meetings and patrol-style engagements that create soft targets. The trigger is less about ISIS and more about trust: Washington decides Syrian security services can’t yet protect U.S. personnel during face-to-face coordination. The result would be colder operational cooperation, more standoff strikes, and a slower political “normalization” track.
Big Strike, Limited Follow-Through: The Story Fades Until the Next Attack
Discussed by: White House messaging emphasizing retaliation rather than war; historical pattern of periodic counter-ISIS strike spikes.
If Hawkeye Strike produces visible battlefield effects and ISIS activity dips, the administration may treat the operation as a closed chapter—retaliation delivered, deterrence restored. The trigger is a quiet few weeks: no new U.S. casualties, no dramatic ISIS claims, and steady partner raids. This is the politically easiest outcome, but it’s also brittle: ISIS is patient, and the next successful attack would reset the cycle instantly.
Historical Context
Operation Inherent Resolve (ISIS territorial defeat era)
2014–2019What Happened
After ISIS seized territory across Syria and Iraq, the U.S. led a long coalition air-and-ground campaign with local partners. The “caliphate” lost its major cities and collapsed territorially, but ISIS cells persisted and adapted.
Outcome
Short term: ISIS lost control of territory; coalition operations became more targeted and advisory.
Long term: ISIS survived as an insurgency, periodically spiking attacks when governance weakens.
Why It's Relevant
Hawkeye Strike is the modern sequel: standoff firepower against an insurgency that never fully died.
Kabul Airport bombing and U.S. retaliation against ISIS-K
August 2021What Happened
A mass-casualty ISIS-K attack hit the U.S. during a high-stakes transition, forcing rapid retaliation decisions under political pressure. The U.S. struck back quickly, but faced enduring questions about intelligence, partners, and exposure.
Outcome
Short term: U.S. conducted retaliatory action and tightened force-protection posture.
Long term: ISIS-K remained active, showing punishment doesn’t automatically end the threat.
Why It's Relevant
It’s a reminder that revenge strikes satisfy urgency, but don’t end insurgent capacity by themselves.
U.S. retaliation cycle after attacks on U.S. forces in the region
2023–2024What Happened
Repeated attacks on U.S. personnel in the Middle East produced a pattern: casualties, vows of response, then calibrated strikes meant to deter without widening war. Adversaries often tested the boundaries again.
Outcome
Short term: Deterrence sometimes held briefly, sometimes failed quickly.
Long term: The core dilemma persisted: force protection versus escalation risk.
Why It's Relevant
Hawkeye Strike fits this playbook—and inherits its weaknesses if ISIS can hit again.