A lone ISIS gunman killed two Iowa National Guardsmen and a civilian interpreter in Palmyra, Syria, on December 13, 2025—the first American combat deaths since dictator Bashar al-Assad fled the country a year earlier. Six days later, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched Operation Hawkeye Strike: F-15s, A-10s, Apache helicopters, and HIMARS artillery hammering 70 ISIS targets across central Syria with over 100 precision munitions. Jordan sent fighter jets. Trump called it vengeance. Then U.S. forces kept hunting—11 more raids between December 20-29 killed or captured 25 ISIS operatives and destroyed four weapons caches.
The strikes expose a brutal reality: Assad's collapse created exactly the power vacuum ISIS needed. The group staged 660 attacks in Syria during 2024, then went quiet in early 2025 as the new government consolidated power. But by December, ISIS was testing the seams—ambushing American forces, bombing mosques to stoke sectarian rage. A December 26 attack on a Homs mosque killed eight worshippers, claimed by a new Sunni extremist group. Meanwhile, 9,000 ISIS fighters sit in Kurdish-run prisons and 40,000 relatives languish in desert camps, waiting for someone's mistake. The 900 U.S. troops still in Syria are all that stands between containment and chaos.
New government stops ISIS attack on Damascus Shi'a shrine, demonstrating counterterrorism capability.
U.S. Lifts Bounty on Al-Sharaa
Diplomatic
Washington removes $10M reward, signaling acceptance of HTS as Syria's de facto government.
Assad Regime Falls, Damascus Liberated
Political
Rebels take Damascus with scant resistance. Assad flees to Russia, ending 53 years of family rule.
HTS Launches Offensive Against Assad
Military
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham rebels surge from Idlib, beginning blitz that will topple the regime.
Scenarios
1
ISIS Prison Breaks Trigger Regional Crisis
Discussed by: Washington Institute, International Crisis Group, Human Rights Watch reporting on SDF facility vulnerabilities
Turkish pressure forces SDF to divert guards from detention sites. ISIS attempts coordinated breakouts from multiple facilities—they've already tried twice since Assad fell. Thousands of fighters escape into Syria's desert badlands, overwhelming al-Sharaa's green government. The 40,000 family members in al-Hol and Roj camps riot. U.S. rushes reinforcements, but hundreds of foreign fighters scatter to Europe, North Africa, and Central Asia. The scenario CENTCOM warned about materializes: ISIS regenerates, seizing territory within months instead of years.
Discussed by: Foreign Affairs, Combating Terrorism Center analysis of HTS counterterrorism record
Syria's transitional government proves more effective than Assad at suppressing ISIS. Al-Sharaa integrates SDF into national forces, secures prison facilities, and leverages Western intelligence partnerships to dismantle cells before they strike. The U.S. maintains 900 troops as advisors but gradually shifts burden to Syrian forces. ISIS reverts to low-level insurgency—deadly but contained. The March 2025 SDF integration finally gets implemented, giving Kurds autonomy while addressing Turkish concerns. Jordan, Syria, and the U.S. establish permanent counter-ISIS coordination.
3
Trump Withdraws, ISIS Resurges as U.S. Exits
Discussed by: Stars and Stripes, NBC News analysis of Trump's Syria withdrawal history and current posture
Trump orders full withdrawal of the 900 U.S. troops—he tried in 2018, nearly succeeded in 2019, and now he's back. SDF loses funding and air support. Turkey attacks Kurdish positions. Prison security collapses. ISIS, which was conducting 60 attacks monthly in 2024, roars back to life. Al-Sharaa's forces can't fill the vacuum. The scenario mirrors Iraq 2011: premature withdrawal births ISIS 2.0. European allies scramble to evacuate their nationals from detention camps. Syria becomes a terrorist safe haven again, exactly what al-Sharaa promised to prevent.
4
Sectarian War Reignites, ISIS Exploits Chaos
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Lowy Institute analysis of Syrian sectarian tensions
Al-Sharaa's Sunni government clashes with Shi'a communities, Alawites, and Kurds. The June church bombing was just the beginning—ISIS stages more sectarian attacks designed to ignite civil conflict. Turkey invades Kurdish areas, forcing SDF to abandon ISIS prisons and fight for survival. Iran backs Shi'a militias. Israel strikes Hezbollah remnants. Syria fragments into warring zones. ISIS thrives in the chaos, recruiting from displaced populations and looting weapons depots. The U.S. faces an impossible choice: escalate or watch Syria's disintegration spawn the next caliphate.
Historical Context
January 2019 Manbij Bombing
January 16, 2019
What Happened
An ISIS suicide bomber killed four Americans—two soldiers, a Defense Department civilian, and a contractor—plus 15 others in Manbij, Syria. The attack came weeks after Trump announced withdrawal of all U.S. forces, demonstrating ISIS's enduring capability despite losing most territorial control. It was the deadliest attack on U.S. forces in Syria since operations began.
Outcome
Short Term
Trump delayed but didn't cancel the withdrawal; forces drew down from 2,500 to 900.
Long Term
ISIS lost its final territory two months later but proved it could strike even in defeat.
Why It's Relevant Today
The Palmyra attack mirrors Manbij's timing—Americans killed during political transition—and validates fears that reduced presence invites ISIS resurgence.
Iraq 2011 U.S. Withdrawal and ISIS Rise
December 2011 - June 2014
What Happened
Obama withdrew all U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011, declaring the mission accomplished. Iraqi security forces, without American support, crumbled under sectarian pressure. Al-Qaeda in Iraq—barely alive in 2011—rebranded as ISIS, exploited Syria's civil war, then stormed back into Iraq. By June 2014, ISIS controlled Mosul and declared a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria.
Outcome
Short Term
ISIS seized territory the size of Britain, holding it until 2017-2019.
Long Term
The U.S. returned in 2014 with Operation Inherent Resolve, a mission still running 11 years later.
Why It's Relevant Today
The withdrawal-resurgence pattern haunts Syria policy: pull out too soon and ISIS returns stronger, as CENTCOM's two-year regeneration warning suggests.
Operation Inherent Resolve (2014-Present)
September 2014 - Ongoing
What Happened
After ISIS seized vast territory in Iraq and Syria, Obama launched a coalition campaign in September 2014. Using airstrikes, special forces, and local partners like the SDF, the U.S. slowly squeezed ISIS's caliphate. By March 2019, ISIS lost its final stronghold at Baghuz. But the mission never ended—900 troops remain in Syria conducting counter-ISIS operations, exactly what they were doing when the Palmyra attack hit.
Outcome
Short Term
Coalition liberated 100% of ISIS's territorial caliphate between 2014-2019.
Long Term
ISIS reverted to insurgency, attacking 660 times in Syria during 2024 alone.
Why It's Relevant Today
Operation Hawkeye Strike is the latest chapter in an 11-year war that was supposed to end in 2019, proving ISIS containment requires permanent pressure.
