Overview
A lone ISIS gunman killed two Iowa National Guardsmen and a civilian interpreter in Palmyra, Syria, on December 13, 2025—the first American combat deaths since dictator Bashar al-Assad fled the country a year earlier. Six days later, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched Operation Hawkeye Strike: F-15s, A-10s, Apache helicopters, and HIMARS artillery hammering 70 ISIS targets across central Syria with over 100 precision munitions. Jordan sent fighter jets. Trump called it vengeance.
The strikes expose a brutal reality: Assad's collapse created exactly the power vacuum ISIS needed. The group staged 660 attacks in Syria during 2024, then went quiet in early 2025 as the new government consolidated power. But by December, ISIS was testing the seams—ambushing American forces, probing for weakness. Meanwhile, 9,000 ISIS fighters sit in Kurdish-run prisons and 40,000 relatives languish in desert camps, waiting for someone's mistake. The 900 U.S. troops still in Syria are all that stands between containment and chaos.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The jihadist group that once ruled territory the size of Britain, now reduced to guerrilla warfare.
America's proxy army in Syria, holding the line against ISIS with 900 U.S. troops at their back.
The Pentagon command responsible for the Middle East, running America's forever war against ISIS.
Former al-Qaeda affiliate now running Syria, rebranding from jihadists to counterterrorism partners.
Timeline
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Fallen Iowa Guardsmen Return Home
CeremonyRemains of Torres-Tovar and Howard arrive in Iowa with military honors, posthumously promoted.
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Operation Hawkeye Strike Hits 70 ISIS Targets
MilitaryU.S. and Jordan unleash F-15s, A-10s, Apaches, artillery—100+ munitions across central Syria.
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ISIS Gunman Kills Three Americans in Palmyra
AttackLone attacker—Syrian security guard with ISIS ties—ambushes U.S. patrol, killing two soldiers, one interpreter.
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U.S. Removes HTS Terrorist Designation
DiplomaticWashington formally delists Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, betting on al-Sharaa's pivot from jihadism.
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ISIS Suicide Bomber Hits Damascus Church
AttackAttack on Greek Orthodox church kills 25, wounds 63 in sectarian provocation.
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CENTCOM Warns ISIS Could Regenerate in Two Years
AssessmentGen. Kurilla testifies post-Assad chaos enables ISIS to rebuild fighting force, seize territory.
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SDF Agrees to Merge Into Syrian State
PoliticalKurdish forces agree to integrate, but implementation stalls over details and Turkish opposition.
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Al-Sharaa Formally Becomes President
PoliticalSyrian Revolution Victory Conference appoints al-Sharaa as president of transitional government.
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CENTCOM Chief Visits Syria, Tours ISIS Prisons
MilitaryGen. Kurilla meets SDF commanders, inspects al-Hol camp holding 40,000 ISIS-affiliated detainees.
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Syria Thwarts ISIS Church Bombing Plot
SecurityNew government stops ISIS attack on Damascus Shi'a shrine, demonstrating counterterrorism capability.
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U.S. Lifts Bounty on Al-Sharaa
DiplomaticWashington removes $10M reward, signaling acceptance of HTS as Syria's de facto government.
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Assad Regime Falls, Damascus Liberated
PoliticalRebels take Damascus with scant resistance. Assad flees to Russia, ending 53 years of family rule.
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HTS Launches Offensive Against Assad
MilitaryHay'at Tahrir al-Sham rebels surge from Idlib, beginning blitz that will topple the regime.
Scenarios
ISIS Prison Breaks Trigger Regional Crisis
Discussed by: Washington Institute, International Crisis Group, Human Rights Watch reporting on SDF facility vulnerabilities
Turkish pressure forces SDF to divert guards from detention sites. ISIS attempts coordinated breakouts from multiple facilities—they've already tried twice since Assad fell. Thousands of fighters escape into Syria's desert badlands, overwhelming al-Sharaa's green government. The 40,000 family members in al-Hol and Roj camps riot. U.S. rushes reinforcements, but hundreds of foreign fighters scatter to Europe, North Africa, and Central Asia. The scenario CENTCOM warned about materializes: ISIS regenerates, seizing territory within months instead of years.
Al-Sharaa Consolidates Power, ISIS Containment Holds
Discussed by: Foreign Affairs, Combating Terrorism Center analysis of HTS counterterrorism record
Syria's transitional government proves more effective than Assad at suppressing ISIS. Al-Sharaa integrates SDF into national forces, secures prison facilities, and leverages Western intelligence partnerships to dismantle cells before they strike. The U.S. maintains 900 troops as advisors but gradually shifts burden to Syrian forces. ISIS reverts to low-level insurgency—deadly but contained. The March 2025 SDF integration finally gets implemented, giving Kurds autonomy while addressing Turkish concerns. Jordan, Syria, and the U.S. establish permanent counter-ISIS coordination.
Trump Withdraws, ISIS Resurges as U.S. Exits
Discussed by: Stars and Stripes, NBC News analysis of Trump's Syria withdrawal history and current posture
Trump orders full withdrawal of the 900 U.S. troops—he tried in 2018, nearly succeeded in 2019, and now he's back. SDF loses funding and air support. Turkey attacks Kurdish positions. Prison security collapses. ISIS, which was conducting 60 attacks monthly in 2024, roars back to life. Al-Sharaa's forces can't fill the vacuum. The scenario mirrors Iraq 2011: premature withdrawal births ISIS 2.0. European allies scramble to evacuate their nationals from detention camps. Syria becomes a terrorist safe haven again, exactly what al-Sharaa promised to prevent.
Sectarian War Reignites, ISIS Exploits Chaos
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Lowy Institute analysis of Syrian sectarian tensions
Al-Sharaa's Sunni government clashes with Shi'a communities, Alawites, and Kurds. The June church bombing was just the beginning—ISIS stages more sectarian attacks designed to ignite civil conflict. Turkey invades Kurdish areas, forcing SDF to abandon ISIS prisons and fight for survival. Iran backs Shi'a militias. Israel strikes Hezbollah remnants. Syria fragments into warring zones. ISIS thrives in the chaos, recruiting from displaced populations and looting weapons depots. The U.S. faces an impossible choice: escalate or watch Syria's disintegration spawn the next caliphate.
Historical Context
January 2019 Manbij Bombing
January 16, 2019What Happened
An ISIS suicide bomber killed four Americans—two soldiers, a Defense Department civilian, and a contractor—plus 15 others in Manbij, Syria. The attack came weeks after Trump announced withdrawal of all U.S. forces, demonstrating ISIS's enduring capability despite losing most territorial control. It was the deadliest attack on U.S. forces in Syria since operations began.
Outcome
Short term: Trump delayed but didn't cancel the withdrawal; forces drew down from 2,500 to 900.
Long term: ISIS lost its final territory two months later but proved it could strike even in defeat.
Why It's Relevant
The Palmyra attack mirrors Manbij's timing—Americans killed during political transition—and validates fears that reduced presence invites ISIS resurgence.
Iraq 2011 U.S. Withdrawal and ISIS Rise
December 2011 - June 2014What Happened
Obama withdrew all U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011, declaring the mission accomplished. Iraqi security forces, without American support, crumbled under sectarian pressure. Al-Qaeda in Iraq—barely alive in 2011—rebranded as ISIS, exploited Syria's civil war, then stormed back into Iraq. By June 2014, ISIS controlled Mosul and declared a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria.
Outcome
Short term: ISIS seized territory the size of Britain, holding it until 2017-2019.
Long term: The U.S. returned in 2014 with Operation Inherent Resolve, a mission still running 11 years later.
Why It's Relevant
The withdrawal-resurgence pattern haunts Syria policy: pull out too soon and ISIS returns stronger, as CENTCOM's two-year regeneration warning suggests.
Operation Inherent Resolve (2014-Present)
September 2014 - OngoingWhat Happened
After ISIS seized vast territory in Iraq and Syria, Obama launched a coalition campaign in September 2014. Using airstrikes, special forces, and local partners like the SDF, the U.S. slowly squeezed ISIS's caliphate. By March 2019, ISIS lost its final stronghold at Baghuz. But the mission never ended—900 troops remain in Syria conducting counter-ISIS operations, exactly what they were doing when the Palmyra attack hit.
Outcome
Short term: Coalition liberated 100% of ISIS's territorial caliphate between 2014-2019.
Long term: ISIS reverted to insurgency, attacking 660 times in Syria during 2024 alone.
Why It's Relevant
Operation Hawkeye Strike is the latest chapter in an 11-year war that was supposed to end in 2019, proving ISIS containment requires permanent pressure.