For over a decade, Syria's largest oil fields and the Euphrates dam that powers much of the country sat outside government control. On January 18, 2026, Syrian forces captured both—the al-Omar oilfield and Tabqa dam—as tribal fighters entered Raqqa city itself, the former ISIS capital that Kurdish-led forces liberated in 2017.
The swift collapse of SDF positions follows the failure of a March 2025 integration agreement that was supposed to fold 50,000 Kurdish fighters into the Syrian state. Damascus now controls infrastructure worth an estimated $6.4 million daily in oil revenue, while the SDF faces the loss of both its economic base and its territorial heartland.
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Key Indicators
50,000+
SDF fighters
Estimated strength of Kurdish-led forces facing integration or defeat
$6.4M
Daily oil revenue
Value of production from captured fields at $80/barrel
800 MW
Tabqa dam capacity
Syria's largest hydroelectric facility, now under government control
138,000
Displaced from Aleppo
Civilians displaced by January fighting in Kurdish neighborhoods
People Involved
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Syrian Interim President (Leading military offensive against SDF)
Mazloum Abdi
SDF Commander-in-Chief (Negotiating under military pressure)
Tom Barrack
US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy to Syria (Mediating failed negotiations)
Organizations Involved
SY
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Armed Militia Coalition
Status: Losing territory to government offensive
US-backed coalition of Kurdish and Arab militias that defeated ISIS in northeastern Syria.
SY
Syrian Transitional Government
Interim Government
Status: Conducting military offensive while negotiating
Post-Assad government formed by HTS-led opposition forces after December 2024 offensive.
Timeline
Damascus Captures Tabqa, Al-Omar, Enters Raqqa
Military
Syrian forces seize Tabqa city, Euphrates dam, and al-Omar oilfield. Tribal fighters enter Raqqa city, taking military security building.
US Urges Halt, Offensive Continues
Military
CENTCOM commander publicly calls on Syria to cease offensive. Syrian forces ignore warning, continue advance.
Syrian Army Takes Deir Hafer
Military
Government forces capture strategic town east of Aleppo after SDF withdrawal.
Aleppo Ceasefire, SDF Withdraws
Diplomatic
US brokers ceasefire. Over 400 SDF fighters evacuate Aleppo to northeastern Syria. 138,000 civilians displaced.
Fighting Erupts in Aleppo
Military
Clashes break out between Syrian army and SDF-linked forces in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighborhoods.
Integration Deadline Passes
Diplomatic
Third deadline for SDF integration expires without implementation. Both sides blame the other for delays.
Preliminary Military Merger Announced
Diplomatic
Abdi announces preliminary agreement to restructure SDF through integration into defense ministry.
PKK Announces Dissolution
Political
PKK declares full dissolution in favor of political means, following Öcalan's call to disarm.
US Announces Syria Troop Reduction
Military
Pentagon confirms withdrawal of roughly 1,000 troops from Syria, consolidating from 8 to 5 outposts.
SDF-Damascus Integration Agreement Signed
Diplomatic
Abdi and al-Sharaa sign US-brokered framework for SDF integration into Syrian state by end of 2025.
Al-Sharaa Named Interim President
Political
Syrian Revolution Victory Conference formally names al-Sharaa president of transitional government.
Assad Falls, HTS Takes Damascus
Political
11-day HTS offensive topples Assad regime. Bashar al-Assad flees to Russia. Ahmed al-Sharaa emerges as Syria's new leader.
SDF Liberates Raqqa from ISIS
Military
After 4-month battle with heavy US air support, SDF captures ISIS capital. 80% of city left uninhabitable.
SDF Established with US Backing
Background
US helps form Syrian Democratic Forces coalition to fight ISIS, combining YPG with Arab militias.
Rojava Revolution Begins
Background
Kurdish forces seize Kobani as Assad regime withdraws from northern Syria, establishing de facto autonomy in Kurdish-majority areas.
Scenarios
1
Raqqa Falls, SDF Confined to Hasakah
Discussed by: Al Jazeera analysts, Middle East Institute
Syrian forces complete capture of Raqqa and push SDF east to Hasakah province, their final territorial redoubt. The SDF loses most oil revenue and strategic depth but retains some negotiating leverage through control of ISIS detention facilities holding thousands of foreign fighters. Integration talks resume from a position of SDF weakness.
2
US-Brokered Ceasefire Holds, Revised Deal Signed
Discussed by: Tom Barrack statements, Atlantic Council
American mediation produces a new integration framework that addresses SDF concerns about command autonomy while satisfying Damascus on sovereignty. The SDF accepts regional administrative roles rather than federal autonomy. This requires both sides to compromise on positions they've publicly rejected.
3
ISIS Detainees Escape During Fighting
Discussed by: SDF warnings, UN officials
Continued fighting near SDF detention facilities—which hold thousands of ISIS fighters and their families—leads to security breaches. Escaped detainees regroup and launch attacks, forcing Syrian government and SDF into reluctant security cooperation and drawing renewed US military involvement.
4
Turkey Intervenes, Complicating All Parties
Discussed by: Chatham House, Turkish government statements
Ankara launches its own operation into SDF-held territory, seeing opportunity in Kurdish weakness. This creates a three-way conflict that neither Damascus nor the SDF can manage alone, potentially forcing both into tactical cooperation against Turkish forces.
Historical Context
Iraqi Kurdistan Autonomy Deal (1970-1974)
March 1970 - March 1974
What Happened
Baghdad and Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani signed an autonomy agreement promising self-rule in northern Iraq. The deal collapsed after four years over control of Kirkuk's oil fields, leading to renewed war and eventual Kurdish defeat when Iran withdrew support.
Outcome
Short Term
Kurdish forces were routed. An estimated 200,000 refugees fled to Iran. Barzani went into exile.
Long Term
Kurdish autonomy was not achieved until 1991, and full constitutional recognition came only in 2005. Oil remains contentious between Erbil and Baghdad.
Why It's Relevant Today
The Syrian case mirrors the 1970 dynamic: an integration deal that founders on the question of who controls resource-rich territory. The SDF's loss of oil fields echoes how revenue disputes torpedoed earlier Kurdish-central government agreements.
Battle of Raqqa and ISIS Defeat (2017)
June - October 2017
What Happened
SDF forces, backed by US airstrikes and special operations troops, besieged and captured Raqqa from ISIS after a 4-month urban battle. The city served as ISIS's de facto capital since 2014. Some 3,800 airstrikes devastated 80% of the city.
Outcome
Short Term
ISIS lost its Syrian capital and most of its territorial caliphate. The SDF established control over Raqqa and surrounding areas.
Long Term
The SDF emerged as the dominant force in northeastern Syria, controlling one-third of the country and its main oil resources. The victory cemented US-SDF partnership but created the current territorial dispute.
Why It's Relevant Today
The SDF is now losing the city it paid heavily to capture. Raqqa's fall would erase the territorial legacy of the anti-ISIS campaign and demonstrate the limits of US security partnerships when political settlements fail.
PKK-Turkey Peace Process Collapse (2013-2015)
March 2013 - July 2015
What Happened
Imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called for an end to the 30-year armed struggle. A ceasefire held for over two years as Ankara and the PKK negotiated. The process collapsed after the June 2015 Turkish elections, with fighting resuming in Kurdish cities.
Outcome
Short Term
Urban warfare destroyed several Kurdish towns in southeastern Turkey. Thousands died. The peace process was abandoned.
Long Term
The failure hardened positions on both sides for nearly a decade until new talks began in 2024.
Why It's Relevant Today
The SDF-Damascus negotiations followed a similar arc: initial framework agreement, extended deadlines, and eventual military escalation when political implementation stalled. The pattern suggests integration deals require continuous pressure and clear enforcement mechanisms to survive.
