Study: 93% of Australia's Indigenous population lost within 73 years of colonisation

Overview

Updated 2 hours ago

Australia's Indigenous population before European colonisation was about 2.22 million people — not the 250,000 to 1 million historians long assumed, a new study in Nature Human Behaviour finds. Within 73 years of the First Fleet's 1788 arrival, researchers estimate 93 percent of that population was gone, an average of about 28,200 excess deaths per year.

Early colonial censuses recorded only 177,000 to 193,000 Indigenous people by 1861, about 7 percent of the pre-colonial estimate. The 2021 census counted 812,728, about 37 percent of the figure the study projects for 1788. At current growth rates, reaching parity with the pre-colonial population would take until about 2047.

Why it matters

Australia's pre-colonial Indigenous population was roughly five times larger than official histories recorded — a scale that reframes the colonial legacy and today's wellbeing gap.

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Key Indicators

2.22 million

Estimated pre-colonial Indigenous population (median)

Bootstrapped median from modelled carrying capacity and genetic reconstructions.

93%

Population lost within 73 years of 1788

Share of the pre-colonial population researchers estimate died or was lost by 1861.

2.06 million

Estimated excess deaths, 1788–1861

Excess deaths from disease, frontier violence, and dispossession needed to align with census records.

~37%

Share of pre-colonial population counted in 2021 census

812,728 Indigenous Australians counted, compared with the estimated 2.22 million before colonisation.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

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People Involved

Corey Bradshaw

Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology, Flinders University

Co-author of the population estimate study

Lynette Russell

Distinguished Professor, Monash University Indigenous Studies Centre

Co-author of the population estimate study

Organizations Involved

Flinders University

Public research university

Led the demographic modelling for the study

Adelaide-based university whose Global Ecology lab conducted the population modelling.

Monash University

Public research university

Co-led the study's historical analysis

Melbourne-based university whose Indigenous Studies Centre contributed historical expertise.

Nature Human Behaviour

Peer-reviewed scientific journal

Published the population estimate and smallpox modelling papers

Nature Portfolio journal covering human behaviour and social science research.

Timeline

1788 October 2026

8 events Latest: Yesterday

Tap a bar to jump to that date

October 2026
ScienceDaily reports the findings
Latest Media

ScienceDaily publishes a report summarising the study's findings for a wide audience.
Yesterday
September 2026
Population estimate study published
Scientific

Nature Human Behaviour paper revises pre-colonial population to a median of 2.22 million.
September 2026
2026
Smallpox modelling paper estimates first-year deaths
Scientific

Separate Nature Human Behaviour study models up to 220,000 deaths from the 1789 epidemic.
2026
1971
First census counts Indigenous people
Political

First nationwide census including Indigenous Australians records 115,953 people.
1971
May 1967
Referendum approves counting Indigenous Australians
Political

Australians vote to include Indigenous people in the census and permit federal laws for them.
May 27th, 1967
1861
Colonial censuses record steep decline
Historical

Censuses record about 177,000–193,000 Indigenous Australians, roughly 7% of the pre-colonial estimate.
1861
1789
Smallpox epidemic hits the southeast
Historical

Epidemic devastates Indigenous communities in southeastern Australia; later modelling estimates up to 220,000 deaths.
1789
1788
First Fleet arrives
Historical

British colonisation of Australia begins with the First Fleet's arrival in Sydney.
1788

Scenarios

Estimate becomes the accepted scientific figure

Likely Resolves by Q2 2028

Discussed by: The study's authors and the peer-reviewed journals that published it

Over the next two years, the 2.22 million figure becomes the standard reference in academic work on Australian population history, possibly corroborated by independent studies using different methods. The study's wide confidence interval (1.13–4.41 million) leaves room for refinement, so the median could shift in either direction.

Government adopts the figure in a truth-telling process

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Co-author Lynette Russell and The Guardian's coverage

A federal or state truth-telling commission, parliamentary inquiry, or official acknowledgment formally cites the 2.22 million figure in a published report, changing how government frames colonial history. Victoria's Yoorrook Justice Commission and other state-based truth-telling processes are the most likely venues.

Findings reshape treaty or compensation discussions

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Co-authors' comments on the scale of loss; ongoing state treaty processes

Treaty negotiations, compensation frameworks, or reparations proposals explicitly reference the revised population figures as evidence of the scale of colonial harm. This could strengthen the factual case for compensation or alter the terms of public debate around treaty settlements.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1492–1650

The Great Dying of the Americas (1492–1650)

European colonisation introduced Old World diseases to the Americas, and Indigenous populations collapsed by roughly 90 percent within a century in many regions. Historians consider it the largest demographic catastrophe in recorded history.

Then

Massive depopulation enabled European conquest and settlement across two continents.

Now

The population collapse reshaped global demographics and, through reforestation of abandoned land, even altered atmospheric carbon levels.

Why this matters now

Disease-driven collapse of this scale is a documented global pattern, supporting the plausibility of Australia's 93 percent estimate.

June 1992

Mabo decision overturns terra nullius (1992)

Australia's High Court ruled in Mabo v Queensland that Aboriginal Australians held native title to land before colonisation, rejecting the doctrine of terra nullius.

Then

The decision recognised Indigenous land rights and led to the Native Title Act of 1993.

Now

It established that the legal fiction of an 'empty' land was false, opening space for truth-telling.

Why this matters now

This study dismantles the demographic foundation of terra nullius — the assumption that very few people lived there.

May 1967

1967 referendum and first Indigenous census count

Australians voted by more than 90 percent to amend the Constitution so Indigenous people would be counted in the census and the Commonwealth could legislate for them.

Then

The 1971 census counted 115,953 Indigenous Australians, the first official count.

Now

A century of incomplete and late official counting underpinned underestimates of the pre-colonial population.

Why this matters now

Decades of undercounting explain why historians accepted figures a fraction of the new estimate.