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Sudan's war-driven famine crisis

Sudan's war-driven famine crisis

Force in Play

Three years of fighting between the army and Rapid Support Forces has left two of every five Sudanese without enough food

Today: UN agencies issue joint famine warning

Overview

Two of every five Sudanese now lack enough food. Three UN agencies said on May 15 that 19.5 million people across Sudan face crisis-level hunger after three years of war between the national army and a paramilitary force.

Famine has been formally confirmed in El Fasher and Kadugli. About 135,000 people are in catastrophic conditions across 14 hotspots, 825,000 children risk severe malnutrition this year, and only one-fifth of the 2026 aid plan is funded.

Why it matters

Conflict-driven famine is preventable when fighters allow aid through. Every month of blocked access in Sudan turns a funding gap into a death toll.

Play on this story Voices Debate Who Said What? Predict

Key Indicators

19.5M
People in food crisis
About 40% of Sudan's population now lives at IPC Phase 3 or worse.
135K
In catastrophic hunger
People in IPC Phase 5 conditions across 14 hotspots in Darfur and South Kordofan.
825K
Children at risk
Under-fives expected to suffer severe acute malnutrition in 2026.
20%
Of aid plan funded
Sudan's 2026 humanitarian response plan remains four-fifths short of its target.
9M
Internally displaced
Sudanese forced from their homes inside the country as of March 2026.
14
Famine hotspots
Areas in Darfur and South Kordofan facing IPC Phase 5 conditions or imminent risk.

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People Involved

Cindy McCain
Cindy McCain
Leading WFP's Sudan response since 2023
 QU Dongyu
QU Dongyu
Pushing for emergency seeds and inputs for Sudanese farmers
 Catherine Russell
Catherine Russell
Leading UNICEF's child nutrition response in Sudan
 Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan
Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan
De facto head of state, controls central and eastern Sudan
 Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”)
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”)
Controls Darfur and parts of Kordofan

Organizations Involved

World Food Programme (WFP)
World Food Programme (WFP)
UN Agency
Lead UN agency for food assistance in Sudan

The UN's main food assistance agency, responsible for moving and distributing emergency food at scale.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
UN Agency
Lead agency for agricultural support

The UN agency that helps farmers keep producing during emergencies.
United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
UN Agency
Lead agency for child nutrition and protection

The UN agency responsible for child welfare, including malnutrition treatment and clean water.
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
Inter-agency Initiative
Authority for famine classifications in Sudan

The technical body that decides whether a place is officially in famine.
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
National Military
Controls central, eastern, and northern Sudan

Sudan's regular military, internationally recognized as the country's government.
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
Paramilitary Force
Controls Darfur and parts of Kordofan

A paramilitary force that grew from the Janjaweed militias of the 2003 Darfur war.

Timeline

  1. UN agencies issue joint famine warning

    Humanitarian

    WFP, FAO, and UNICEF release the latest IPC analysis warning 19.5 million Sudanese face acute food insecurity, with 135,000 in catastrophic conditions across 14 hotspots.

  2. UN finds 'hallmarks of genocide' in El Fasher

    Investigation

    A UN fact-finding mission concludes that RSF acts during the El Fasher capture show patterns of ethnically targeted killings against Zaghawa and Fur communities.

  3. El Fasher massacre

    Atrocity

    The UN Human Rights Office documents more than 6,000 killings in the first three days of the RSF takeover, including a hospital attack.

  4. RSF captures El Fasher

    Conflict

    After an 18-month siege, the RSF takes the last SAF stronghold in Darfur. All five Darfur state capitals are now under RSF control.

  5. Quad nations propose humanitarian truce

    Diplomacy

    The US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE propose a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a nine-month transition. Sudan's government rejects the framework.

  6. IPC confirms famine in El Fasher and Kadugli

    Humanitarian

    The IPC formally classifies both towns at Phase 5, with 20 other areas at imminent risk if fighting continues or aid access stays blocked.

  7. SAF recaptures Khartoum

    Conflict

    The army retakes the capital from RSF forces after two years of urban warfare. The war's center of gravity shifts west to Darfur and Kordofan.

  8. Geneva ceasefire talks collapse

    Diplomacy

    US-led Geneva talks fail to produce a ceasefire after the SAF refuses to attend, citing UAE participation. Aid access commitments yield little progress.

  9. IPC declares famine in Zamzam camp

    Humanitarian

    The IPC Famine Review Committee confirms famine conditions in Zamzam displacement camp near El Fasher. It is the world's first formal famine declaration since 2017.

  10. War erupts in Khartoum

    Conflict

    Fighting breaks out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces after months of tension over RSF integration into the regular army.

Scenarios

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1

IPC expands famine designations to more Sudanese towns

The IPC's October-November analysis cycle covers the lean season peak. Aid agencies expect that absent a ceasefire and a funding surge, additional hotspots in Darfur, South Kordofan, and West Kordofan will cross Phase 5 thresholds. This is the trajectory implied by the May 2026 joint warning if access does not change.

Resolves by: 2026-12-31
Source: IPC official analysis at ipcinfo.org
Discussed by: WFP, FAO, IPC Famine Review Committee, IFPRI analysts
Consensus —
2

Quad-mediated humanitarian truce takes effect

The Quad framework offers a three-month humanitarian pause as a step toward a permanent ceasefire. Burhan has rejected the version on the table, but a revised proposal that addresses SAF sovereignty concerns and RSF Darfur consolidation could yet move forward. McCain and others have urged the parties to accept access guarantees even without a political deal.

Resolves by: 2026-12-31
Source: Reuters reporting and official US-Saudi statement
Discussed by: US State Department, Saudi foreign ministry, Reuters, Al Jazeera
Consensus —
3

Donors close most of the 2026 aid funding gap

A donor pledging conference could lift the response plan from 20% funded toward levels seen in earlier crises. The pattern in Sudan has run the other way, with funding shares falling each year of the war. A major new commitment from the US, EU, or Gulf donors would be needed to reverse the trend.

Resolves by: 2026-12-31
Source: OCHA Financial Tracking Service (fts.unocha.org)
Discussed by: OCHA, donor governments, NGO consortiums
Consensus —
4

SAF retakes a Darfur state capital from RSF

The SAF retook Khartoum in March 2025 but has not pushed into Darfur in force. RSF consolidation after El Fasher makes a reversal harder, but army units in West Kordofan continue probing operations. A breakthrough would shift the humanitarian map and could reopen overland aid corridors.

Resolves by: 2027-05-15
Source: Reuters and Al Jazeera reporting
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, Reuters defense correspondents, Sudan analysts
Consensus —

Historical Context

Somalia famine (2011)

July 2011 – February 2012

What Happened

The UN declared famine in southern Somalia after drought met war. The al-Shabaab insurgency blocked aid agencies from much of the worst-hit territory, leaving Bay and Bakool regions cut off for months.

Outcome

Short Term

About 260,000 people died, half of them children under five. Aid eventually reached most areas through a mix of cross-border operations and negotiated access.

Long Term

The crisis reset how IPC and the UN run famine early warning. It also showed that conflict-driven famines kill far more people than the official declaration phase because access lags death.

Why It's Relevant Today

Somalia is the closest modern parallel to Sudan: a war-driven famine where the chokepoint is access, not food supply. The mortality curve in Somalia spiked before official declarations caught up, a pattern aid agencies fear is repeating in Darfur.

South Sudan famine (2017)

February – June 2017

What Happened

The IPC declared famine in parts of Unity State after years of civil war between government forces and rebel factions. About 100,000 people were classed in famine, with another 1 million at imminent risk.

Outcome

Short Term

A negotiated aid surge and humanitarian corridors brought the formal famine designation down within four months. Donors mobilized roughly $1.4 billion.

Long Term

Acute food insecurity remained high for years afterward. The case showed that famine can be rolled back when warring parties allow access, even without ending the underlying conflict.

Why It's Relevant Today

South Sudan's resolution depended on the government allowing aid into rebel areas. Sudan's current standoff is structurally similar: the SAF controls aid permits while the worst hunger sits in RSF territory.

Ethiopia famine (1984-85)

1984 – 1985

What Happened

Drought combined with civil war in Tigray and Eritrea produced a famine that killed an estimated one million people. The Mengistu government restricted aid to rebel-held areas and used food as a counter-insurgency tool.

Outcome

Short Term

Live Aid raised about $127 million and pushed Western governments into a larger response. Cross-border operations from Sudan eventually reached rebel-held northern Ethiopia.

Long Term

The crisis reshaped Western development politics and led to the creation of permanent early warning systems. The war itself continued until 1991.

Why It's Relevant Today

Ethiopia is the historical baseline for how war turns drought or displacement into mass starvation. Sudan today combines the same pattern of government access restrictions with the additional layer of cross-line obstruction by a paramilitary force.

Sources

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UNICEF World Food Programme Food and Agriculture Organization IPC UN News Human Rights Watch Wikipedia IFPRI Al Jazeera IPC