Overview
Assad falls. Celebrations erupt. Then the real fight begins. The battle for Aleppo is over—for now. The last Kurdish fighters evacuated on January 11 after a week of clashes that killed at least 30 people and displaced over 150,000. Syrian forces swept through Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh as SDF fighters boarded buses to the northeast under a US-brokered ceasefire. Tom Barrack shuttled between Damascus, Amman, and Ankara to salvage the deal. Turkey offered military support to crush the Kurds if needed. The immediate crisis ended with handshakes and evacuations. The underlying question—who controls a third of Syria—remains violently unresolved.
This isn't about three neighborhoods in Aleppo. It's about whether Syria stays whole or fractures along ethnic lines. The Kurds carved out self-rule during the civil war, partnered with America to crush ISIS, and now control Syria's energy-rich northeast including 70% of oil production. Damascus signed a deal in March 2025 promising integration by year's end. That deadline passed. January 4 talks produced no tangible results—the two sides can't even agree whether the SDF integrates as battalions or individual soldiers. So they fought instead. Aleppo is clear of Kurdish forces for the first time since 2012. But the northeast remains autonomous, armed, and backed by US troops. The ceasefire bought time. It didn't answer the question.
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Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The Kurdish-led militia that destroyed ISIS and now controls a third of Syria.
The former al-Qaeda affiliate that overthrew Assad and now runs Syria.
Timeline
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Final SDF Fighters Evacuate Aleppo Under US-Brokered Deal
MilitaryLast Kurdish-led SDF fighters leave Aleppo on buses to Raqqa after US-brokered ceasefire. Aleppo Governor confirms city "empty of SDF fighters." Ends Kurdish presence in Aleppo held since 2012. At least 30 killed, 150,000 displaced in week of fighting.
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Ceasefire Collapses, Syrian Forces Enter Sheikh Maqsoud
MilitarySyrian forces conduct security sweeps in Kurdish neighborhoods after ceasefire breaks down overnight. Dozens of SDF fighters surrender, bused to northeast Syria. Sporadic fighting continues.
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Drone Strikes Aleppo Governorate Building During Press Conference
MilitaryDrone believed launched by Kurdish forces hits governorate building as Aleppo's governor and two Syrian ministers hold press conference inside.
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Turkey Offers Military Support to Damascus Against SDF
PoliticalTurkish military ready to support Syrian forces in battle with Kurdish fighters in Aleppo if Damascus requests assistance. Turkish drones reportedly already providing support.
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US Envoy Meets Jordan Foreign Minister on Ceasefire Extension
PoliticalTom Barrack meets with Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi in Amman to consolidate ceasefire and ensure Kurdish forces' peaceful withdrawal from Aleppo.
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Barrack Meets Jordan Foreign Minister, Then Damascus Leadership
PoliticalUS envoy Tom Barrack meets Jordan's Ayman Safadi discussing peaceful SDF withdrawal, then meets Syria's President al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister al-Shaibani. Calls fighting "deeply concerning," urges return to dialogue under March integration framework.
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Syria Declares Ceasefire in Aleppo
MilitaryMinistry of Defence announces 3am ceasefire, six-hour withdrawal window. Kurdish councils reject evacuation. US envoy Tom Barrack works to extend deadline. Over 100,000 displaced.
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Turkey Demands Kurdish Disarmament
PoliticalForeign Minister Hakan Fidan threatens military operation unless YPG lays down arms immediately.
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Syrian Forces Shell Kurdish Neighborhoods in Aleppo
MilitaryGovernment declares Sheikh Maqsoud, Ashrafieh, Bani Zaid 'military targets.' Shelling and drone strikes begin.
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Damascus-SDF Talks Produce No Tangible Results
PoliticalMazloum Abdi delegation meets Damascus officials for integration talks. State TV reports meeting produced no tangible results, sides agree to further meetings later.
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Integration Deadline Passes, Talks Collapse
PoliticalDecember 31 deadline expires with no progress. Dispute over battalion autonomy vs. individual integration.
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Al-Sharaa Meets Trump at White House
PoliticalFirst Syrian head of state visit since 1946 independence. Discusses Syria's future and Kurdish question.
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US Removes HTS Terrorist Designation
PoliticalWashington lifts sanctions, recognizes al-Sharaa's government. $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa removed.
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Damascus and SDF Sign Integration Agreement
PoliticalAl-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi sign eight-point deal. SDF to merge into Syrian army by December 2025.
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Al-Sharaa Named President of Syria
PoliticalSyrian Revolution Victory Conference appoints former HTS leader as transitional president at People's Palace.
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Assad Flees, 53-Year Dynasty Ends
PoliticalDamascus falls after 11-day offensive. Assad escapes to Russia. HTS declares victory, al-Sharaa becomes de facto leader.
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HTS Launches Offensive from Idlib
MilitaryAl-Sharaa's forces begin lightning campaign. Aleppo falls in days, shocking Assad government and international observers.
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Turkey Invades Northeast Syria
MilitaryOperation Peace Spring: Turkish forces attack SDF positions. 300,000 displaced, SDF loses border areas.
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SDF Eliminates Last ISIS Territory
MilitaryKurdish forces seize Baghuz, final ISIS stronghold. Over 32,000 SDF casualties in five-year campaign.
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SDF Captures Raqqa, ISIS Capital Falls
MilitaryAfter months of fighting with US support, Kurdish-led forces take ISIS headquarters. Territorial caliphate begins collapse.
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Syrian Democratic Forces Founded
MilitaryUS sponsors multi-ethnic coalition dominated by Kurdish YPG to fight ISIS. SDF becomes America's main partner.
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ISIS Besieges Kobani, US Begins Kurdish Partnership
MilitaryIslamic State attacks Kurdish town. US provides air support to YPG fighters, beginning alliance that continues today.
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Kurds Declare Self-Rule in Northeast Syria
PoliticalAssad withdraws forces from Kurdish areas. YPG establishes control in Kobani, Afrin, and Hasakah as civil war erupts.
Scenarios
Turkey Invades, SDF Collapses or Retreats East
Discussed by: Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Crisis Group
Ankara loses patience and launches Operation Peace Spring 2.0, targeting SDF positions across northeast Syria with Turkish forces and Syrian National Army proxies. The SDF lacks air power to resist sustained assault. Two possibilities: total collapse with fighters fleeing to Iraqi Kurdistan, or negotiated retreat east of the Euphrates, abandoning Manbij, Kobani, and oil fields. Washington faces choice between defending partners who won't compromise or abandoning them to Turkish/Damascus control. Likely triggers: continued integration stalemate, another Turkish election, or major PKK attack inside Turkey that Erdogan uses as justification.
Federal Syria with Kurdish Autonomy Like Iraqi Kurdistan
Discussed by: International Crisis Group, US State Department officials (background), Kurdish political analysts
After months of brinkmanship and sporadic clashes, Damascus and the SDF reach a federal arrangement modeled on Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government. The northeast gets constitutional recognition, regional parliament, and internal security forces (rebranded SDF under nominal Damascus command). Central government controls borders, foreign policy, and oil revenue sharing. Turkey grudgingly accepts if Kurdish forces rebrand and cut PKK ties. Requires: sustained US pressure on all sides, Turkish economic incentives, and al-Sharaa gambling that autonomy won't spark demands from Druze, Alawites, and other groups. Most optimistic scenario, requires all parties prioritizing stability over maximalist demands.
Syria Fractures Into Ethnic Statelets
Discussed by: Libya and Iraq partition analysts, pessimistic regional observers, some Washington think tanks
The Aleppo ceasefire collapses. Fighting spreads. Kurdish northeast becomes de facto independent, backed by US presence. Turkey controls northern border zone through proxies. Damascus governs Alawite heartland and major cities. Druze-controlled south. Syria becomes Syria in name only—multiple armed territories, no functioning central state, endless militia checkpoints. Revenue from oil and border crossings funds competing armies. Think Libya after Gaddafi or Iraq's near-fracture during ISIS peak. This is the scenario everyone fears and nobody can prevent if integration talks fail completely and external powers back different factions. The 'frozen conflict' endgame.
Damascus Crushes Kurdish Resistance, Turkey Assists
Discussed by: Pro-Damascus analysts, hardline Turkish commentators, regional observers skeptical of US staying power
Al-Sharaa and Erdogan cut a deal: Turkey gets buffer zone, Syria gets northeast. Joint military campaign grinds down SDF in urban warfare. The US warns but doesn't intervene—Washington decides it can't defend every Kurdish enclave forever and pivots to protecting Iraq-Syria border. SDF leadership flees to Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Oil fields revert to Damascus control. Kurdish autonomous administration dismantled. What happened in Afrin (2018) and Tell Abyad (2019) goes nationwide. Triggers: another US administration that deprioritizes Syria, Turkish-Syrian normalization, or SDF leadership miscalculating Damascus's willingness to use overwhelming force.
Historical Context
Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (1991-Present)
1991-presentWhat Happened
After Saddam's defeat in the Gulf War, the US established a no-fly zone protecting Iraqi Kurds. They built the Kurdistan Regional Government with its own parliament, military (Peshmerga), and control over oil resources. Baghdad initially opposed it, then recognized Kurdish autonomy in Iraq's 2005 constitution after Saddam's overthrow. In 2017, Kurds held an independence referendum—92% voted yes—but Baghdad crushed it militarily, retaking 40% of Kurdish-held territory including Kirkuk's oil fields. The KRG survived as a federal region.
Outcome
Short term: Autonomy established under international protection, became constitutional in 2005.
Long term: Uneasy federal arrangement persists. KRG has parliament, army, oil revenue sharing disputes with Baghdad. Independence dream deferred but autonomy survived.
Why It's Relevant
Syrian Kurds want this model—constitutional recognition, regional government, armed forces. Damascus fears it leads to secession. The 2017 referendum shows how quickly autonomy can escalate to independence demands, explaining al-Sharaa's resistance to federalism.
Dayton Accords: Bosnia's Ethnic Partition (1995)
1995-presentWhat Happened
After three years of ethnic cleansing and war, the US forced Bosnian Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks to accept a deal at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio. Bosnia stayed one country on paper, divided into two entities in practice: Serb-majority Republika Srpska and Bosniak-Croat Federation. Ethnic power-sharing at the top, ethnic control of territory below. International troops enforced it. Thirty years later Bosnia remains frozen in Dayton's ethnic categories—dysfunctional government, no national identity, periodic threats of secession.
Outcome
Short term: Stopped the killing. Froze territorial and ethnic divisions. International peacekeepers deployed.
Long term: Permanent dysfunction. Ethnic divisions institutionalized. No real reconciliation or unified state. Republika Srpska regularly threatens independence.
Why It's Relevant
The nightmare scenario for Syria. Partition stops the war but creates permanent ethnic statelets that never reintegrate. Kurdish autonomy that's really partition under another name. If Damascus and the SDF can't agree on real integration, they may get Bosnian-style frozen conflict instead.
Turkey's Operation Peace Spring (2019)
October 2019What Happened
Trump announced US withdrawal from northeast Syria. Days later, Turkey invaded with 300,000 troops and Syrian proxy militias, targeting SDF positions along the border. Kurdish forces retreated from Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn after intense fighting. US negotiated ceasefire after 10 days: SDF withdrew 30km from 120km border strip. Turkey established 'safe zone,' deported Syrian refugees there from Turkey. Over 300,000 displaced, 90+ civilians killed. Showed SDF cannot resist Turkish military without US protection.
Outcome
Short term: SDF lost strategic border areas. Turkey created occupied zone. Kurdish autonomy shrunk.
Long term: Demonstrated Turkish ability to crush SDF if Washington steps back. Made Kurdish leaders paranoid about US commitment. Erdogan showed he'll invade if he thinks he can get away with it.
Why It's Relevant
Ankara's threat to repeat Peace Spring hangs over current negotiations. The SDF knows integration might be better than Turkish invasion. Damascus knows Turkey will help crush the Kurds if talks fail. The 2019 invasion is the gun on the table in every negotiation.