US inflation surge and 2022 midterms (2022)
Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent oil and gasoline prices soaring, and US CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, a 40-year high. Voters ranked inflation their top concern, and Democrats lost the House in the November midterms despite keeping the Senate.
Republicans took the House by a narrow margin as inflation dominated the campaign.
Inflation eased through 2023 as oil prices corrected, though the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign followed.
Today's setup mirrors 2022: a war-driven energy shock lifting prices before a midterm, with voters blaming the party in power. It shows both the political risk and the possible path to cooling if fuel costs fall.
