Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

The US central bank responsible for setting monetary policy, including the federal funds rate that influences borrowing costs throughout the economy. - On hold after three rate cuts, facing conflicting growth and inflation signals

The United States economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025—a steep drop from 4.4% the quarter before and well below the 2.5% that forecasters expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in American history, subtracted roughly one full percentage point from growth by itself. Federal spending fell at a 16.6% annualized rate during the quarter, dragging headline output down by more than a percentage point even as consumer spending and business investment continued to expand.

Updated Feb 20

The U.S. central bank sets interest rates and manages monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices. - Balancing inflation concerns against weakening consumer demand

American retail sales went nowhere in December, the weakest holiday shopping finish since 2018. The Commerce Department reported $735 billion in sales—unchanged from November—while economists expected 0.4% growth. Eight of thirteen retail categories declined, with furniture and auto sales hit hardest by tariff-driven price increases. The data, delayed more than a month by a 43-day government shutdown, sent money markets repricing Federal Reserve rate cuts from two to three for 2026. New analysis from Bank of America reveals the structural fracture runs deeper than initially understood: in January, higher-income households' spending grew 2.5% year-over-year, while middle-income households managed just 1% and lower-income households only 0.3%.

Updated Feb 18

The U.S. central bank, responsible for monetary policy, bank supervision, and financial stability. - Independence under legal challenge

No president has fired a sitting Federal Reserve governor in the central bank's 112-year history. Donald Trump is trying to be the first—and to replace the Fed chair with a loyalist. His August 2025 attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook over unproven mortgage fraud allegations escalated into a Supreme Court showdown that exposed the fragility of Fed independence. In a striking January 21, 2026 hearing, all nine justices—including three Trump appointees—expressed skepticism about Trump's removal claims, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh warning the administration's position "would weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve." Fed Chair Jerome Powell attended the arguments and later called the case "perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history." Nine days later, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a 55-year-old former Fed governor and longtime Trump ally, to replace Powell when his term expires in May 2026.

Updated Feb 5

The U.S. central bank, responsible for monetary policy and financial system stability. - Subject of DOJ criminal investigation; leadership succession uncertain pending Warsh confirmation and Powell investigation resolution

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires in May. Markets reacted violently: gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence. Silver crashed 30% in its worst day since 1980. The dollar index spiked to 97.14, recovering from multi-year lows below 96. However, by February 3-5, gold rebounded to $5,070 as investors reassessed the confirmation timeline and Powell investigation trajectory. The rally began January 26 when gold broke $5,000 for the first time, driven by the unprecedented DOJ grand jury subpoenas served January 9 over Powell's congressional testimony about a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.

Updated Feb 5

The U.S. central bank, which sets benchmark interest rates that influence borrowing costs and risk appetite across global markets. - Holding rates steady amid political pressure

Bitcoin has now fallen over 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, hitting fresh 15-month lows around $66,000-$67,000 by February 5 after plunging 11% in a single day—triggering over $1 billion in new liquidations and extending the longest losing streak since 2018's crypto winter.

Updated Feb 5

The United States central bank, responsible for monetary policy, interest rates, and financial stability. - Leadership transition underway; policy direction expected to shift hawkish

Gold touched $5,600 per ounce on January 29, 2026—its highest price in history. Silver peaked above $121. Three days later, gold had lost 21% and silver had cratered 40%, erasing roughly $15 trillion in market value in one of the most violent precious metals selloffs since 1980.

Updated Feb 2

The central bank of the United States, responsible for monetary policy, financial stability, and banking supervision. - Navigating deepest internal divisions in decades over rate policy

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% on January 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote that exposed a stunning reversal in internal divisions. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut—the first time two sitting governors have dissented together in decades. Just six weeks earlier in December, the vote split 9-3 the opposite direction: Miran wanted a 50 basis-point cut while Goolsbee and Schmid opposed any cut at all. The December minutes revealed even supporters called that decision "finely balanced." Now the battle lines have shifted entirely, with some hawks turning dovish while the 2026 FOMC voting rotation brought three new hawks—Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Dallas's Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari—replacing Chicago's Goolsbee and Kansas City's Schmid. Miran's four-month term expired January 31, though he stated he will remain until Trump names a permanent replacement.

Updated Feb 1

The U.S. central bank, responsible for monetary policy and interest rate decisions. - Under DOJ investigation; independence questioned

Gold pulled back sharply to $4,902.85 per ounce on January 31, 2026, after profit-taking triggered a 9% single-day decline on January 30 from the record $5,594.82 high reached January 29. Despite the correction—which saw prices slide more than 7% to below $4,980—gold remains on track for a monthly gain exceeding 15%, its strongest performance since the 1980s. The U.S. dollar continued its freefall, breaking below 97.0 to reach 95.5, a four-year low, after the New York Federal Reserve conducted a rare "rate check" with currency traders that accelerated selling pressure. The dollar's share of global reserves fell to 58.2%, a new low since 1995, with central banks net selling $48 billion in dollar reserves during January alone.

Updated Jan 31

The U.S. central bank sets monetary policy through interest rate decisions and is structured to operate independently of political pressure. - Independence under unprecedented challenge from executive branch

No president has ever criminally investigated a sitting Federal Reserve chair. When Trump's Justice Department served Jerome Powell with grand jury subpoenas on January 11, two Republican senators announced they would block all Fed nominees until the probe ends. With a 13-11 GOP majority on the Banking Committee, even one defection creates a confirmation stalemate.

Updated Jan 28

The U.S. central bank responsible for monetary policy, currently managing the transition from inflation-fighting rate hikes to a neutral stance. - Holding rates steady; facing leadership transition

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. inflation will finish above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. December's CPI report showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from November and 0.7 percentage points above the Fed's goal. Core inflation came in at 2.6%, slightly below forecasts. The data confirms what markets already expected: no rate cut at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the Fed will also release updated economic projections.

Updated Jan 15

The Federal Reserve sets U.S. monetary policy with a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. In 2022–2023 it led a rapid tightening cycle to fight high inflation, then began cutting rates in late 2024 as inflation moderated and job growth slowed. - Delivered contentious 9–3 rate cut in December 2025; signaling cautious approach with only one cut projected for 2026 amid deep internal divisions

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, in a deeply divided 9–3 vote—the most dissents in six years—bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%. Minutes released December 30 revealed the decision was 'finely balanced,' with officials split over whether weak hiring or stubborn inflation poses the greater risk. The delayed BLS report released December 16 showed the economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added only 64,000 in November, while unemployment climbed to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. Combined with the November ADP report showing a 32,000 private-sector job loss concentrated in small businesses, the data confirmed the labor market weakened sharply in late 2025.

Updated Jan 2

The Fed helped authorize the systemic-risk move and launched emergency funding to calm deposit runs. - Partnered in the systemic-risk decision; provided broader liquidity backstop

The FDIC spent 2024–2025 billing big banks for the emergency decision to make SVB and Signature depositors whole. Now, with one quarter left in the planned eight-quarter collection, the agency is lowering that final rate and trying to prevent an awkward ending: collecting more than the losses it’s legally required to recover.

Updated Dec 19, 2025

The U.S. central bank, which also serves as the primary prudential regulator for bank holding companies and many large banks. - Co-author of 2013 guidance, not (yet) party to rescission

In March 2013, U.S. bank regulators issued joint supervisory guidance on leveraged lending to prevent a return of pre-2008-style underwriting excesses, with examiners informally anchoring scrutiny around a roughly six-times-EBITDA leverage benchmark. Over the next decade, banks’ pullback helped shift riskier deal finance toward private-credit funds, CLOs, and other nonbanks—expanding an opaque “shadow banking” ecosystem even as regulators maintained the guidance was supervisory, not a binding rule.

Updated Dec 11, 2025