U.S. brokers Armenia-Azerbaijan peace after three decades of conflict

Overview

No sitting U.S. president or vice president had ever visited Armenia—until February 9, 2026. Vice President JD Vance's arrival in Yerevan marks more than a diplomatic first: it signals Washington's deepest-ever engagement in a region long dominated by Russia and Iran. Vance brought $9 billion in potential nuclear investment, advanced Nvidia chips, and surveillance drones—tangible proof that the Trump administration is backing its August 2025 peace framework with economic muscle.

In This Story

3 Videos

4 People

Peace Treaty Signed, TRIPP Construction Begins

3 Context

Camp David Accords (1978)

Key Indicators

Years of U.S. development rights

The United States holds exclusive rights to develop the TRIPP corridor through Armenian territory for nearly a century.

100,400

Armenians displaced in 2023

Ethnic Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan's September 2023 offensive—99% of the population.

$9B

Potential U.S. nuclear investment

Civil nuclear energy development framework signed during Vance's Armenia visit.

43 km

TRIPP corridor length

The stretch of Armenian territory that will link Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan exclave.

Interactive

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George Orwell

(1903-1950) · Modernist · satire

Fictional AI pastiche — not real quote.

"They have renamed imperialism "Peace and Prosperity" and leased a nation's sovereignty for ninety-nine years—a duration carefully chosen because it sounds less permanent than "forever" while ensuring that everyone who signed the contract will be safely dead before it expires. One notes that the corridor's acronym was designed before the route itself, which is always a reliable sign that language is being used to obscure reality rather than illuminate it."

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

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People Involved

J.D. Vance

Vice President of the United States (First sitting U.S. VP to visit both Armenia and Azerbaijan)

Nikol Pashinyan

Prime Minister of Armenia (Leading Armenia's pivot toward Western alignment)

Ilham Aliyev

President of Azerbaijan (Has ruled since 2003; achieved military victory over Armenian forces)

Donald Trump

President of the United States (Brokered the August 2025 peace framework)

Organizations Involved

U.S. Department of State

Federal Agency

Status: Lead agency implementing TRIPP framework

The State Department has managed the diplomatic architecture of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, publishing implementation frameworks and coordinating with both governments.

Timeline

Vance Makes Historic Azerbaijan Visit, Signs Strategic Partnership
Diplomatic

Vice President JD Vance becomes the highest-level U.S. official to visit Azerbaijan, meeting President Ilham Aliyev in Baku. They sign a strategic partnership charter and Vance announces U.S. delivery of patrol boats for territorial waters protection, while praising progress on the TRIPP corridor and peace process.
February 10th, 2026
Vance Makes Historic Armenia Visit
Diplomatic

Vice President JD Vance becomes the first sitting U.S. president or vice president to visit Armenia. He signs a civil nuclear cooperation framework and announces drone and chip exports.
February 9th, 2026
TRIPP Implementation Framework Published
Diplomatic

The U.S. and Armenia release detailed plans for developing the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity corridor through Armenian territory.
January 13th, 2026
White House Peace Summit
Diplomatic

Pashinyan and Aliyev initial a peace agreement and sign a joint declaration at the White House. The TRIPP corridor is announced with 99-year U.S. development rights.
August 8th, 2025
Armenia and Azerbaijan Agree on All Peace Treaty Terms
Diplomatic

Both countries announce that negotiations have concluded on the text of a comprehensive peace agreement.
March 13th, 2025
U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Charter Signed
Diplomatic

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan sign a comprehensive partnership agreement covering defense, energy, and technology cooperation.
January 14th, 2025
Artsakh Government Dissolves
Political

The president of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh signs a decree dissolving all state institutions by January 1, 2024. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians flee to Armenia.
September 28th, 2023
Azerbaijan Launches Final Offensive
Military

Azerbaijan attacks remaining Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh. Within 24 hours, local authorities agree to lay down arms.
September 19th, 2023
Azerbaijan Begins Blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh
Military

Azerbaijan establishes a checkpoint blocking the Lachin corridor—the only land route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. A ten-month siege begins.
December 12th, 2022
Tripartite Ceasefire Agreement Signed
Diplomatic

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia sign a ceasefire. Azerbaijan regains control of surrounding districts while Russian peacekeepers deploy to remaining Armenian-held areas of Nagorno-Karabakh.
November 10th, 2020
Second Nagorno-Karabakh War Begins
Military

Azerbaijan launches a major offensive to recapture territories lost in the 1990s. The 44-day war features extensive use of drones and results in significant Azerbaijani gains.
September 27th, 2020
First Nagorno-Karabakh War Ends in Ceasefire
Military

Armenia and ethnic Armenian forces control Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts after years of fighting. The conflict displaces hundreds of thousands on both sides.
May 12th, 1994

Scenarios

Peace Treaty Signed, TRIPP Construction Begins

Discussed by: Atlantic Council, State Department statements, Armenian government announcements

Both countries formally sign the peace treaty by mid-2026, and ground is broken on the TRIPP corridor by late 2026 as announced. U.S. investment flows in, Armenia gains nuclear energy capacity and advanced technology, and Azerbaijan secures its land link to Nakhchivan. Iran and Russia protest but lack leverage to block the project.

Implementation Stalls Over Sovereignty Disputes

Discussed by: War on the Rocks, Carnegie Endowment, regional analysts

Technical disagreements over customs, security arrangements, or the exact route delay construction. Azerbaijan pushes for greater control; Armenia resists. The agreement remains initialed but unsigned while both sides seek to renegotiate terms. Russian or Iranian pressure exploits the delay.

Domestic Opposition Derails Armenian Ratification

Discussed by: Armenian diaspora organizations, opposition parties, Washington Examiner

The Armenian National Committee of America and domestic opposition mobilize against the treaty, framing it as capitulation after the Nagorno-Karabakh exodus. Pashinyan faces a political crisis. The agreement fails to achieve parliamentary ratification, leaving the August 2025 framework in limbo.

Regional Conflict Reignites

Discussed by: International Crisis Group, FPRI, regional security analysts

A border incident, prisoner dispute, or clash in contested areas sparks renewed fighting before the treaty is signed. Trust collapses, and both sides blame each other for abandoning the peace process. The U.S. is left with an unfinished diplomatic project and no clear path forward.

Historical Context

Camp David Accords (1978)

September 1978

What Happened

President Jimmy Carter hosted Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin for 13 days of secret negotiations at Camp David. The talks produced two framework agreements that led to the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty in March 1979—the first peace treaty between Israel and an Arab state.

Outcome

Short Term

Egypt recovered the Sinai Peninsula; Israel gained diplomatic recognition and security guarantees. Sadat and Begin shared the Nobel Peace Prize.

Long Term

The treaty has held for over 45 years despite regional turmoil. Egypt was expelled from the Arab League for a decade but became a key U.S. ally receiving billions in annual aid.

Why It's Relevant Today

Like Camp David, the Armenia-Azerbaijan deal features U.S. presidential mediation of a territorial dispute, a transit/trade component, and significant domestic opposition in both countries. Whether it achieves similar durability remains to be seen.

Abraham Accords (2020)

August-December 2020

What Happened

The Trump administration brokered normalization agreements between Israel and four Arab states—the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Unlike Camp David, these deals normalized relations between countries not previously at war with each other, focusing on economic and security cooperation.

Outcome

Short Term

Diplomatic relations, direct flights, and trade opened between Israel and signatory states. Critics noted the agreements sidestepped Palestinian concerns.

Long Term

The accords have survived leadership changes in the U.S. and Israel, with economic ties deepening. However, the October 2023 Gaza war strained some relationships.

Why It's Relevant Today

TRIPP echoes the Abraham Accords' emphasis on economic integration and U.S.-branded diplomatic achievements. Both involve Trump-era transactional diplomacy prioritizing concrete deals over traditional peace processes.

Dayton Agreement (1995)

November 1995

What Happened

After three and a half years of war in Bosnia that killed 100,000 people and displaced millions, the Clinton administration convened Bosnian, Croatian, and Serbian leaders at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio. Three weeks of intense negotiations produced a peace agreement that ended the conflict.

Outcome

Short Term

The war ended. NATO deployed 60,000 peacekeepers. Bosnia's territorial boundaries were fixed with a complex power-sharing government.

Long Term

Thirty years later, the Dayton structure remains in place—criticized as dysfunctional but credited with preventing renewed war. EU membership remains elusive.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Armenia-Azerbaijan situation parallels Dayton: U.S. mediation following territorial changes achieved by force, displaced populations, and a peace deal that crystallizes wartime outcomes rather than reversing them.