Brent crude crossed $100 on September 9 for the first time since July, after Iran attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz and the US destroyed five Iranian tankers. Prices retreated below $100 by September 21 as Trump signaled openness to talks and satellite data showed Saudi oil flows through the strait recovering to 2.9 million barrels a day, up from 700,000 in August.
But Hormuz traffic remains near record lows: only four commodity vessels crossed on September 15, versus an 18-vessel pre-war average, and the UKMTO recorded single-digit crossings over the September 19–20 weekend. US diesel hit a record $6.50 a gallon. JPMorgan withdrew its oil price forecast on September 10, saying the conflict made modeling impossible.
Why it matters
If Brent holds near $100, fuel and transport costs climb worldwide, feeding inflation in every economy that imports energy.
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Key Indicators
$99
Brent crude, September 21
Fell below $100 after Trump signaled openness to talks with Iran, retreating from the September 9 spike.
4
Cargo ships crossing Ormuz, September 15
Only 4 commodity vessels crossed, down from an 18-vessel pre-war average.
17 events
Latest: September 21st, 2026 · 2 months ago
Showing 8 of 17
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September 2026
Brent falls below $100; Trump signals Iran talks
LatestMarket
Brent slipped about 4% to around $99–102 as Trump said he was open to meeting Iran's president, and satellite data showed Saudi oil flows through Hormuz recovering.
Hormuz traffic falls to 4 crossings
Market
Only 4 commodity vessels crossed the strait, versus a pre-war average of 18, according to shipping data.
JPMorgan withdraws oil price forecast
Analyst action
JPMorgan said the conflict made modeling prices impossible, after Brent rose from $94 on September 1 to $107 by September 10.
Brent crosses $100 as US and Iran exchange tanker strikes
Market
Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July after Iran attacked 10 ships near Hormuz and the US destroyed five Iranian tankers.
Iran attacks 10 ships near Strait of Hormuz
Conflict
Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it hit 10 ships, including two US vessels, after the US sank five Iranian tankers in the biggest wave of shipping attacks since the war began.
Oil traffic through Hormuz falls to six vessels
Market
Only six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine a day earlier, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler.
Houthis strike Saudi oil facilities; Brent nears $100
Conflict
Dozens of missiles and drones hit Aramco installations and Khamis Mushait; 73 wounded. Brent hits $99.46, WTI $94.73.
Iran announces maritime exclusion zone for Hormuz
Government action
Tehran says ships must get Iranian approval to transit the strait; details to be unveiled. The move follows US strikes on Iranian tankers.
Saudi Arabia strikes Houthi targets in Yemen
Conflict
Saudi-led coalition bombs Taiz and Marib provinces after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites. Analysts call it a spiral of escalation.
Wood Mackenzie warns of refining hit if conflict extends
Analyst action
Projects 1.4 million barrels a day lower global refining throughput in Q4 if disruptions last to December. Asia would bear the largest impact.
Goldman raises forecasts; US reports 100 vessels intercepted
Analyst action
Goldman lifts Brent forecast to $85 and warns of $120 risk. US says it intervened on roughly 100 ships in Ormuz.
Seven killed in coalition strike on Al Jauf prison
Conflict
Houthis report deaths, including one child, from Saudi-led coalition bombing.
OPEC+ holds output steady
Decision
Alliance pauses production increases, leaving no spare supply cushion.
US strikes Iranian oil tankers in Gulf
Conflict
US forces hit three Iranian tankers, sinking one, after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward US Navy ships.
July 2026
Brent last settles above $100
Market
Brent crude closes above $100 for the last time before the September surge.
Houthis threaten Saudi maritime blockade
Conflict
Rebels threaten to block Saudi Arabia by sea at Bab al-Mandeb strait.
February 2026
War begins, Iran restricts Hormuz navigation
Conflict
Hostilities erupt; Tehran restricts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US blockade.
Scenarios
1
Brent breaks $120 as Hormuz attacks intensify
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Goldman Sachs, whose analysts warned that intensified attacks on tankers could push Brent to $120 a barrel
A direct strike on vessels transiting Hormuz, or significant damage to Saudi export terminals, forces the market to price in physical supply losses rather than just risk. OPEC+ already holds output unchanged, so no spare capacity exists to blunt the spike. The International Energy Agency would likely release emergency reserves, but the price overshoot could still occur first.
2
Ceasefire reopens the strait, Brent retreats below $90
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Iranian officials insisting Tehran opposes war; Pakistan is mediating talks
A negotiated settlement between the United States and Iran lifts Tehran's navigation restrictions and ends the US blockade. Tanker traffic returns to normal levels within weeks, and the geopolitical risk premium drains out of the price. Saudi export capacity resumes along with Iranian supply, pulling Brent below its current forecast range.
3
Prolonged disruption holds Brent near $100 through year-end
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: MacroYield analysts, who say near-term risks remain skewed upward; OPEC+ producers maintaining current output
No settlement emerges, attacks continue at the current tempo, and tanker traffic stays depressed. OPEC+ declines to add supply, and Goldman's December forecast of $85 proves conservative as the market keeps pricing in a long conflict. Brent settles into a $90-105 range rather than breaking decisively in either direction.
4
Major infrastructure damage pushes Brent to $150
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Bank of America analysts
If the conflict expands and causes major damage to energy infrastructure, Bank of America sees Brent reaching $150 a barrel. This would require strikes on refineries, export terminals, or pipelines that take significant capacity offline for months.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
October 1973
1973 oil embargo
Arab members of OPEC cut oil production and embargoed the United States and the Netherlands in response to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Prices quadrupled from about $3 to $12 a barrel within months.
Then
Gasoline lines formed across the US; the dollar weakened; the embargo ended in March 1974 after diplomatic settlements.
Now
The shock drove the creation of the International Energy Agency and strategic petroleum reserves; oil became a permanent geopolitical weapon.
Why this matters now
Shows how a concentrated choke point with political control can translate directly into price shocks — the same mechanism at work in Hormuz today.
2 of 3
1978-1979
1979 Iranian Revolution
Strikes in Iran's oil fields cut exports from roughly 5 million barrels a day to near zero. Panic buying and hoarding pushed prices from about $14 to $39 a barrel in a year.
Then
Recession in Western economies; inflation surged; the US imposed oil price controls that worsened shortages.
Now
Illustrated that the threat of supply loss, not just actual loss, can move prices — another feature of the current market.
Why this matters now
Today's risk premium is doing what the 1979 panic did: prices rising on fear of what could happen more than on measured supply loss.
3 of 3
August 1990 - February 1991
1990-91 Gulf War
Iraq invaded Kuwait, removing about 4.5 million barrels a day of supply from the market. Brent surged from about $17 to $36 and fell back once Saudi Arabia raised output and Coalition forces secured the region.
Then
Prices spiked for months, then collapsed to pre-invasion levels within a year as spare capacity was deployed.
Now
Showed that a Middle East supply shock can be reversed quickly if no permanent infrastructure damage occurs.
Why this matters now
A model for Scenario 2 — if Hormuz reopens and production survives intact, prices may fall as fast as they rose.
