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Brent crude nears $100 as Strait of Hormuz shipping halves

Brent crude nears $100 as Strait of Hormuz shipping halves

Force in Play

Houthi strikes on Saudi oil targets and a US blockade cut tanker traffic through the strait to about half its pre-conflict level.

Today: Houthis strike Saudi oil facilities; Brent nears $100

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

Brent crude hit $99.40 a barrel on September 8, its highest level since July, after Houthi rebels launched dozens of missiles and drones at Saudi Arabian oil installations. Commodity trader Vitol estimates that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to about half its pre-conflict level, and analytics firm Kpler counted just 10 cargo ships crossing per day over the prior week — the lowest since May.

Crude is up more than 60% since January. US diesel already tops $5.90 a gallon, and Goldman Sachs warns that intensifying attacks on tankers could drive Brent to $120, a level that would push energy-driven inflation into major importing economies.

Why it matters

If Brent holds near $100, fuel and transport costs climb worldwide, feeding inflation in every economy that imports energy.

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Key Indicators

$99.40
Brent intraday high, September 8
Highest price since July 24; Brent last settled above $100 on July 23.
$93.90
WTI price, September 8
US benchmark up more than 2.5% on the day, approaching $95 intraday.
60%
Oil price gain since January
Cumulative Brent appreciation during the conflict.
10 per day
Cargo ships crossing Ormuz daily, last 10 days
Kpler tracking shows the lowest vessel count since May.
$85
Goldman Sachs Brent forecast, December 2026
Bank raised its projection by $5; warns of $120 in a renewed attacks scenario.
$5.90
US diesel price per gallon
Above $5.90, raising inflation expectations in the United States.

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

February 2026 September 2026

7 events Latest: Today
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Houthis strike Saudi oil facilities; Brent nears $100

    Today Conflict

    Dozens of missiles and drones hit Aramco installations and Khamis Mushait; 73 wounded. Brent hits $99.40, WTI $93.90.

  2. Goldman raises forecasts; US reports 100 vessels intercepted

    Analyst action

    Goldman lifts Brent forecast to $85 and warns of $120 risk. US says it intervened on roughly 100 ships in Ormuz.

  3. Seven killed in coalition strike on Al Jauf prison

    Conflict

    Houthis report deaths, including one child, from Saudi-led coalition bombing.

  4. OPEC+ holds output steady

    Decision

    Alliance pauses production increases, leaving no spare supply cushion.

  5. Brent last settles above $100

    Market

    Brent crude closes above $100 for the last time before the September surge.

  6. Houthis threaten Saudi maritime blockade

    Conflict

    Rebels threaten to block Saudi Arabia by sea at Bab al-Mandeb strait.

  7. War begins, Iran restricts Hormuz navigation

    Conflict

    Hostilities erupt; Tehran restricts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US blockade.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 1973

1973 oil embargo

Arab members of OPEC cut oil production and embargoed the United States and the Netherlands in response to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Prices quadrupled from about $3 to $12 a barrel within months.

Then

Gasoline lines formed across the US; the dollar weakened; the embargo ended in March 1974 after diplomatic settlements.

Now

The shock drove the creation of the International Energy Agency and strategic petroleum reserves; oil became a permanent geopolitical weapon.

Why this matters now

Shows how a concentrated choke point with political control can translate directly into price shocks — the same mechanism at work in Hormuz today.

1978-1979

1979 Iranian Revolution

Strikes in Iran's oil fields cut exports from roughly 5 million barrels a day to near zero. Panic buying and hoarding pushed prices from about $14 to $39 a barrel in a year.

Then

Recession in Western economies; inflation surged; the US imposed oil price controls that worsened shortages.

Now

Illustrated that the threat of supply loss, not just actual loss, can move prices — another feature of the current market.

Why this matters now

Today's risk premium is doing what the 1979 panic did: prices rising on fear of what could happen more than on measured supply loss.

August 1990 - February 1991

1990-91 Gulf War

Iraq invaded Kuwait, removing about 4.5 million barrels a day of supply from the market. Brent surged from about $17 to $36 and fell back once Saudi Arabia raised output and Coalition forces secured the region.

Then

Prices spiked for months, then collapsed to pre-invasion levels within a year as spare capacity was deployed.

Now

Showed that a Middle East supply shock can be reversed quickly if no permanent infrastructure damage occurs.

Why this matters now

A model for Scenario 2 — if Hormuz reopens and production survives intact, prices may fall as fast as they rose.

Sources

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