Masoud Pezeshkian

Force in Play

Leading wartime government after death of Supreme Leader Khamenei

Since February 28, the US-Iran war has escalated from military and oil targets to critical water infrastructure across the Gulf, now reaching the United Arab Emirates. Key incidents include a March 8 Iranian drone strike on a Bahrain desalination plant, an April 3 attack on Kuwait power and desalination plants with the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, April 5 strikes on two Kuwait power and water desalination plants plus Bahrain's Bapco oil storage, and April 7 Iranian missiles and drones targeting UAE air defenses and infrastructure. On April 7, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that its prior restraint in targeting oil infrastructure and civilian sites in Gulf states 'no longer applies,' marking an explicit escalation threshold after a US strike on Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub.

Updated 7 days ago

Force in Play

Serving on Interim Leadership Council; signaling willingness to negotiate

Japan imports over 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran shut that strait six weeks ago. Now Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is attempting what her predecessor Shinzo Abe tried and failed to do in 2019: talk Tehran down from the brink, this time with far higher stakes and a ticking clock set by Washington.

Updated Apr 6

Force in Play

Leading Iranian government amid massive US-Israeli military strikes

For the fourth time since late February, a ballistic missile fired from Iran crossed into Turkish airspace before NATO defenses destroyed it. The March 31 interception over eastern Turkey followed previous shootdowns on March 4, 9, and 13 — a pattern spanning one month that has turned a NATO ally's skies into an unwanted proving ground for the alliance's missile shield. Turkey summoned Iran's ambassador again and hardened its rhetoric, stating 'all necessary measures are being taken decisively' against threats to its territory.

Updated Mar 31

Rule Changes

Ordered resumption of nuclear talks with U.S.; commented recent talks yielded encouraging signals while Iran prepares for all scenarios

Iran and the United States held initial indirect nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman on February 6, 2026, mediated by Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the discussions as a 'very good start,' with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner exchanging positions through intermediaries on Iran's nuclear program. The second round took place on February 17 in Geneva, yielding agreement on 'guiding principles' for drafting a potential deal.

Updated Mar 27

Built World

Overseeing Iran's continued military campaign; no ceasefire negotiations

Dubai International Airport processed 95.2 million passengers in 2025 and overtook Atlanta in January 2026 as the world's busiest airport. On March 1, Iranian retaliatory missiles and drones struck its terminals, forcing a full evacuation and suspending all operations. On March 16—16 days into the conflict—a drone struck a fuel tank near the airport, reigniting flight suspensions and forcing Emirates to cancel additional flights despite partial airspace reopening. Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Kuwait airports shut down simultaneously on February 28, severing the three Gulf hubs that together route a large share of long-haul traffic between Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Updated Mar 16

Force in Play

Publicly overruled by IRGC; walked back apology under pressure

Iran's Supreme Leader controlled both the presidency and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for over four decades. Eight days after a joint United States-Israeli airstrike killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that unified chain of command has visibly fractured: President Masoud Pezeshkian announced a halt to strikes on neighboring countries and personally apologized to Gulf states for hitting their civilian infrastructure, only for the IRGC to strike a U.S. air base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) hours later and issue a statement telling the public to 'ignore Pezeshkian's words during the war.'

Updated Mar 8

Force in Play

Leading nuclear negotiations while overseeing military rebuilding

In June 2025, Israeli and American strikes destroyed roughly a third of Iran's air defense network in twelve days. Since then, leaked Russian documents and follow‑on reporting have shown Tehran spending billions to replace what it lost—and then some, including a secret €500 million agreement for 500 Verba shoulder‑fired launchers and 2,500 missiles, plus long‑range S‑400 batteries and up to 48 Su‑35 fighter jets whose first 16 airframes are now reported to be in production for Iran. Analysts say this mix of high‑end systems and widely dispersed man‑portable air‑defense systems is designed to make any future U.S. or Israeli air campaign far more complex and costly.

Updated Mar 7

Force in Play

President; sidelined from succession process; Vice President Aref reported taking over wartime duties

Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as supreme leader for 36 years until joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, killed him along with family members and multiple top military and intelligence officials at his Tehran compound, triggering an opaque succession process under fire. With the Assembly of Experts’ Qom site damaged in Israeli strikes and its deliberations driven underground, acting leader Ali Larijani faces a power vacuum in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ interim command council is trying to preserve operational control while missiles and drones continue to fly across the region.

Updated Mar 7

Force in Play

Leading interim three-person leadership council

The last time the United States sank Iranian warships was April 18, 1988. Thirty-eight years later, American forces destroyed nine Iranian naval vessels in a single day and demolished the country's naval headquarters at Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman. The strikes came after Iran attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows, broadcasting radio warnings that no commercial ship would be allowed to pass.

Updated Mar 1

Force in Play

Lacks control over security forces; credibility damaged by crackdown

Iran's last nationwide uprising killed roughly 500 people over several months in 2022. The current one has killed at least 6,842 people—and possibly more than 30,000—in just over five weeks. On January 24, 2026, the UN Human Rights Council voted 25-7 to extend an independent investigation into what officials are calling the deadliest mass killing in Iran's contemporary history. By January 27, the U.S. had deployed the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East as President Trump weighs military strikes; leaked documents now reveal Supreme Leader Khamenei approved a premeditated blueprint for the crackdown months in advance.[1][2]

Updated Feb 4

Rule Changes

Faces pressure from both protesters and hardliners

For over two decades, the European Union resisted designating Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, wary of severing diplomatic ties with Tehran. On January 29, 2026, that resistance collapsed. All 27 EU foreign ministers voted unanimously to place the IRGC on the same legal footing as al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Islamic State—a designation that triggers automatic asset freezes and travel bans across the bloc. Within hours, the United Kingdom signaled it would follow suit with separate legislation targeting hostile state agencies.

Updated Jan 31

Force in Play

Caught between acknowledging grievances and backing crackdown

Bazaar merchants bankrolled Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Now they're in the streets demanding its end. What began December 28 as protests over the rial's collapse to record lows escalated into the largest uprising in the Islamic Republic's 46-year history—spreading to all 31 provinces and uniting working-class laborers, students, and merchants in calls for regime change. The death toll remains highly disputed: activist groups have verified at least 6,100 killed, while leaked government documents suggest 27,500-36,500 deaths. By January 17, the regime had reestablished control through unprecedented force, killing an estimated 147 security personnel in the process.

Updated Jan 31

Force in Play

Limited authority; proposed budget that sparked protests

Iran's nationwide uprising, which began when Tehran's bazaaris marched on December 28, 2025, was crushed through what may be the deadliest massacre in the Islamic Republic's history. While early reports during the internet blackout confirmed 572 deaths, evidence emerging after partial internet restoration in late January reveals at least 6,126 people killed according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency—with some estimates ranging from 12,000 to over 36,500. Most deaths occurred during a 48-hour period on January 8-9 when Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces opened fire on protesters across all 31 provinces. On January 17, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly acknowledged 'several thousand' people had been killed, while President Trump called him a 'sick man' and declared 'it's time to look for new leadership in Iran.' Over 42,000 have been detained, with at least 52 executions already carried out and the judiciary threatening swift trials for thousands more under 'mohareb' (enemy of God) charges.

Updated Jan 31

Force in Play

Attempting mediating stance while security forces use lethal force

The Islamic Republic has survived four decades of protests—but never anything like this. What began on December 28 as Tehran bazaar merchants protesting a collapsing currency became Iran's largest uprising since the 1979 revolution, with demonstrations reported in all 31 provinces. The government responded with an internet blackout and live ammunition. On January 21, Iran issued its first official death toll: 3,117 killed. Independent monitors report dramatically higher figures—the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency documented at least 5,002 deaths as of January 23, while a network of Iranian doctors estimates 16,500-18,000 killed and 330,000 injured, making this potentially the deadliest crackdown in modern Iranian history.

Updated Jan 23

Force in Play

Caught between reform rhetoric and security apparatus demands

On December 28, shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their stalls and took to the streets. The Iranian rial had just hit 1.4 million to the dollar—double its value from a year earlier. Within days, the protests spread to all 31 provinces, evolved from economic grievances into demands for regime change, and drew comparisons to the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic to power.

Updated Jan 20

Force in Play

Facing protests after proposing budget favoring security over wages

Iran's judiciary chief announced January 14 that detained protesters face fast-track trials and executions despite Trump's warning of "very strong action," as the death toll reached at least 2,571 according to Human Rights Activists News Agency—quadrupling in just two days and exceeding any crackdown since the 1979 revolution. Erfan Soltani, 26, became the first protester sentenced to death after a four-day proceeding without legal representation, though his execution was postponed amid international outcry. The U.S. began evacuating hundreds of troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar—home to 10,000 personnel and Central Command's forward headquarters—positioning them out of range should Trump's threatened strikes trigger Iranian missile retaliation.

Updated Jan 14

Force in Play

Pledging economic reform while lacking control over security forces

The Iranian rial lost half its value in six months. On December 28, merchants shut down Tehran's Grand Bazaar—the same traders who helped topple the Shah in 1979. Within two weeks, what began as shopkeeper strikes morphed into the largest uprising since the Islamic Revolution. Now, after five days of near-total internet blackout, the death toll has exploded: credible estimates range from 500 to over 3,000 killed as the IRGC fires live ammunition into crowds hidden from the world's view.

Updated Jan 13

Force in Play

Facing third day of largest protests in three years; calls for dialogue ignored

Iran's Central Bank governor resigned December 29 after the rial collapsed to 1.42 million per dollar—a 70% drop during his tenure—triggering the largest street protests in three years. By December 30, merchants had kept Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar shuttered for three days while crowds in Isfahan, Shiraz, Kermanshah, and Mashhad chanted 'Death to the Dictator' and 'Death to Khamenei' as security forces fired tear gas and live ammunition. Foodstuff prices have jumped 72% year-over-year.

Updated Dec 30, 2025

Force in Play

Leading Iran amid renewed international sanctions pressure and maritime enforcement risk

Treasury just hit Iran’s oil-smuggling “shadow fleet” where it actually hurts: the ships. On December 18, 2025, OFAC blocked 29 vessels and a web of managers and front-company operators that keep Iranian oil moving when the paperwork is fake and the GPS goes dark.

Updated Dec 18, 2025