Overview
Pakistan's former cricket star turned prime minister has been behind bars since August 2023, facing more than 200 criminal cases. In January 2025, a court sentenced him to 14 years for the Al-Qadir Trust case—bringing his total prison time to over 30 years across multiple convictions. On December 21, 2024, he received 17 years for selling state gifts including Saudi jewelry far below market value. His wife, a spiritual healer who influenced his government from behind closed doors, faces concurrent sentences totaling 24 years. Both have been blocked from meeting lawyers to sign appeals, and the UN has condemned Khan's detention conditions as torture.
The stakes extend beyond one man's freedom. Khan's party won the most seats in February 2024 elections, but a military-backed coalition took power instead. His supporters have stormed army headquarters, clashed with security forces in protests that left at least 12 dead in November 2024, and now 85 civilians face military court sentences that the U.S., UK, and EU say lack due process. Negotiations between PTI and the government collapsed in January 2025 after three rounds of talks. Khan threatened civil disobedience targeting overseas remittances, then deferred it. Pakistan is watching whether its most popular politician can be permanently neutralized—or if the pressure becomes unsustainable.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Khan's populist party that rode anti-corruption rhetoric to power in 2018, then lost it all when he broke with the military.
Pakistan's anti-graft watchdog has a history of being weaponized against whoever's out of power.
The most powerful institution in Pakistan, which has ruled directly for roughly half the country's history and indirectly for much of the rest.
Timeline
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Khan and Wife Challenge Convictions in High Court
LegalAppeal filed in Islamabad High Court challenging Al-Qadir Trust conviction, seeking to declare trial court verdict null and void.
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PTI Withdraws from Negotiations
PoliticalPTI chairman announces withdrawal from talks following Khan's instructions after government refuses to form judicial commission investigating violence.
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Khan and Wife Sentenced to 14 Years in Al-Qadir Trust Case
LegalAccountability court convicts Khan (14 years, Rs 1 million fine) and Bushra Bibi (7 years, Rs 500,000 fine) for £190 million corruption involving Malik Riaz property transfer.
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PTI Presents Charter of Demands in Third Round of Talks
PoliticalThird round of government-PTI negotiations held; PTI demands judicial commissions to investigate May 9, 2023 and November 26, 2024 violence.
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Prime Minister Forms Negotiation Committee
PoliticalShehbaz Sharif forms 8-member committee including Deputy PM Ishaq Dar to hold talks with PTI, offering dialogue to ease political tension.
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Khan Defers Civil Disobedience Movement
PoliticalKhan postpones planned December 14 civil disobedience campaign 'for a few days' at party leaders' request.
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UN Expert Condemns Khan's Detention as Torture
InternationalUN Special Rapporteur on Torture Alice Jill Edwards condemns 23-hour daily solitary confinement as psychological torture, citing lack of natural light, poor ventilation, extreme temperatures.
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Khan Threatens Civil Disobedience Starting December 14
PoliticalKhan announces civil disobedience movement if demands unmet, targeting overseas remittances worth $30 billion annually.
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Military Court Sentences 60 More Civilians
LegalAdditional sentences for May 9 attacks, bringing total to 85 tried in military courts.
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Khan and Wife Sentenced to 17 Years
LegalToshakhana 2 case: selling Saudi jewelry set worth Rs 70 million for Rs 5.8 million.
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Military Court Sentences 25 Civilians
Legal2-10 year sentences for May 9 attacks. U.S., UK, EU condemn lack of due process.
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Violent Crackdown on Islamabad Protesters
ViolenceSecurity forces clear D-Chowk after midnight. At least 12 dead, 110 injured. PTI leaders flee.
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PTI Launches 'Final Call' March
ProtestBushra Bibi and CM Gandapur lead thousands toward Islamabad demanding Khan's release.
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Shehbaz Sharif Forms Coalition Government
PoliticalPML-N leader becomes PM with 201 votes, excluding PTI despite its electoral plurality.
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PTI-Backed Independents Win Most Seats
PoliticalDespite party symbol ban and Khan's jailing, backed candidates win 92 seats. Observers cite rigging.
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14-Year Sentence in Al-Qadir Trust Case
LegalKhan and wife convicted of land graft involving Rs 50 billion corruption.
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Khan Sentenced to 3 Years for Toshakhana Corruption
LegalFirst major conviction for selling state gifts; arrested at Lahore residence.
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Supreme Court Orders Khan's Release
LegalTop court rules arrest illegal; Khan freed but faces dozens more cases.
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PTI Supporters Storm Military Sites
ViolenceProtesters torch army headquarters gate, military commander's mansion. Rs 2.5 billion in damage.
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Khan Arrested at Courthouse
LegalParamilitary forces arrest Khan at Islamabad High Court on corruption charges.
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Khan Survives Assassination Attempt
ViolenceGunman wounds Khan during protest march; he blames government and military officials.
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Khan Ousted in No-Confidence Vote
PoliticalParliament removes Khan 174-0 after military withdraws support. He claims U.S.-backed conspiracy.
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Imran Khan Becomes Prime Minister
PoliticalKhan takes office after PTI wins July election with military backing, promising to root out corruption.
Scenarios
Khan Dies or Serves Decades in Prison, PTI Fractures
Discussed by: Middle East Institute analysts, regional observers concerned about PTI's organizational capacity
At 72, Khan could spend the rest of his life imprisoned if convictions stand. Without his charismatic leadership, PTI might splinter as happened to previous Pakistani opposition movements. The establishment has used this playbook before—neutralize the leader, co-opt or intimidate lieutenants, wait for the movement to exhaust itself. Mass trials of supporters create additional chilling effect. The military accepts short-term international criticism for long-term political stability. Within 3-5 years, PTI becomes another minor opposition party. Khan becomes a footnote rather than a martyr.
Sustained Unrest Forces Compromise: Khan Released Under Restrictions
Discussed by: Al Jazeera, Pakistan analysts examining escalating protest cycle and economic impact
Continued protests damage Pakistan's economy and international reputation at a time when it needs IMF support and foreign investment. The establishment offers a face-saving exit: Khan accepts some convictions in exchange for release with political ban. Similar to Nawaz Sharif's exile deals. Khan remains influential from the sidelines but can't hold office. This buys time but doesn't resolve the underlying crisis—PTI supporters still feel cheated of election victory, and Khan's popularity persists. Unstable equilibrium.
Protest Movement Escalates Into Sustained Civil Disobedience
Discussed by: Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, observers of November 2024 violence noting radicalization
Each crackdown makes PTI supporters more determined. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under CM Gandapur becomes a defiant power base, creating a federalism crisis. Youth who've seen military courts try civilians and elections rigged lose faith in institutions. Low-level violence becomes routine—attacks on government buildings, strikes, road blockades. Pakistan faces the sustained unrest that has plagued it during previous political crises, but this time with social media amplifying everything. Economic crisis deepens. Military eventually backs negotiations, but from a weaker position.
Appellate Courts Overturn Major Convictions, Khan Walks Free
Discussed by: Legal analysts noting two previous overturned convictions; Khan's lawyers citing weak evidence
Higher courts have already overturned two Khan convictions for lack of evidence. If appellate judges assert independence from political pressure, they could void the Toshakhana and Al-Qadir cases as well. Pakistan's judiciary has oscillated between submission to military pressure and assertions of autonomy. A sufficiently bold bench could rule the prosecution politically motivated and order release. This would trigger a new constitutional crisis—does the military accept the decision or find new charges? But it's the legal path out, and it has precedent.
Civil Disobedience Campaign Triggers Economic Crisis
Discussed by: PTI leadership, economic analysts concerned about remittance boycott impact
Khan activates his threatened civil disobedience movement, calling on overseas Pakistanis to halt the $30 billion annual remittances that prop up Pakistan's fragile economy. Even partial compliance—10-20% reduction—would devastate foreign reserves and currency stability. The government faces a choice: release Khan or watch the economy collapse while seeking another IMF bailout. International lenders pressure both sides to negotiate. This economic leverage could force concessions that street protests couldn't achieve, but risks pushing Pakistan into deeper crisis.
Historical Context
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Execution (1979)
1977-1979What Happened
Pakistan's elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was overthrown in a 1977 military coup by General Zia-ul-Haq. Zia charged Bhutto with ordering the murder of a political opponent, convicted him in a rushed trial that international observers called a sham, and hanged him in April 1979 despite global appeals for clemency. The military eliminated Pakistan's most popular civilian leader.
Outcome
Short term: Military consolidated power for next 11 years; Bhutto became a martyr.
Long term: His daughter Benazir eventually became prime minister; the Bhutto name remains powerful. The execution remains controversial and widely seen as judicial murder.
Why It's Relevant
Shows Pakistan's pattern of using courts to eliminate popular leaders. Khan's supporters see the same playbook—except this time the leader isn't being hanged, just imprisoned until irrelevant.
Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif Persecution Cycles
1990-2007What Happened
For nearly two decades, Pakistan's two main civilian leaders—Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif—alternated between power and persecution. Each was twice elected prime minister, twice ousted on corruption charges, arrested, tried, convicted, and at times exiled. Benazir spent years in jail and exile; Nawaz was overthrown by the military in 1999, convicted, and exiled to Saudi Arabia for a decade. Both faced dozens of corruption cases that appeared and disappeared based on political winds.
Outcome
Short term: Military maintained ultimate control while allowing facade of democracy.
Long term: Both parties survived; Benazir was assassinated in 2007 but her PPP endures; Nawaz's PML-N currently governs. The pattern normalized corruption charges as political weapons.
Why It's Relevant
Khan now experiences the same treatment he once criticized. The difference: social media mobilizes his supporters faster and the military's legitimacy is weaker. But the playbook is identical.
Turkish Military's Failed Erdogan Removal (2013-2016)
2013-2016What Happened
Turkey's powerful military and judiciary launched corruption probes in 2013 against Prime Minister (later President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his inner circle, attempting to force him from power. Prosecutors filed charges, allies were arrested, and it appeared the establishment might succeed. But Erdogan had built a mass movement and controlled enough institutions. He weathered the storm, then survived a 2016 coup attempt. He then systematically purged opponents and consolidated authoritarian control.
Outcome
Short term: Erdogan survived both legal persecution and coup attempt.
Long term: Turkey transformed from struggling democracy into competitive authoritarianism. Erdogan still rules in 2024, having turned the tables on his opponents.
Why It's Relevant
Demonstrates that establishment campaigns against popular leaders can fail if the leader maintains mass support and institutions fracture. Also shows the winner often doesn't restore democracy—they centralize power. If Khan eventually prevails, would he show restraint or seek revenge?