Pull to refresh
Logo
What Changed
Following Why Sign Up
India lifts 496 million above lower-middle-income poverty line, World Bank says

India lifts 496 million above lower-middle-income poverty line, World Bank says

Money Moves Interactive

Extreme poverty fell from 27.1% to 2.6% between 2011 and 2023; 233 million people remain below $4.20 a day.

Yesterday: October brief projects poverty falling to 12.1% by 2028

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

In 2011, 27 of every 100 Indians lived below $3 a day. By 2023, that number was 2.6.

The World Bank's October 2026 Poverty and Equity Brief estimates 496 million people rose above the $4.20-a-day lower-middle-income country line between 2011 and 2023. Extreme poverty at $3 a day fell from 27.1% to 2.6%, lifting roughly 307 million people out of that category.

The bank credits consumption growth, rising employment among women and food subsidies. It also warns that the one-year drop from 2022-23 to 2023-24 is unusually large and may partly reflect better survey measurement.

Why it matters

Nearly one in six Indians still lives below $4.20 a day, so whether the next decade repeats this decline affects global poverty.

How it changed

Extreme poverty in the 15 most populous countries

Share of people living below $3 a day. Press play to watch World Bank estimates from 2005 to 2025.

India in 2025: 2.6% (2023). Ranks 9 of 15.

A faded bar is the last survey, with its year. Bars only ever show real data points.

Extreme poverty in the 15 most populous countries (%)
NameData pointsSource
DR Congo2012: 78.9; 2020: 85.3World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Nigeria2010: 38.5; 2012: 37.4; 2015: 35.8; 2018: 34.2; 2022: 41.8World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Ethiopia2010: 37.4; 2015: 33; 2021: 38.6World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Pakistan2005: 40.8; 2007: 34.9; 2010: 26.7; 2011: 25.9; 2013: 21.2; 2015: 16.9; 2018: 16.5; 2024: 23World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Bangladesh2005: 32.3; 2010: 25.1; 2016: 19.5; 2022: 5.9World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Philippines2006: 26.1; 2009: 22; 2012: 21.3; 2015: 14.6; 2018: 8.3; 2021: 8.1; 2023: 5.3World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Indonesia2005: 41.1; 2006: 46.8; 2007: 41.1; 2008: 38; 2009: 37.9; 2010: 34.1; 2011: 31.2; 2012: 26.6; 2013: 27.2; 2014: 25.7; 2015: 21.6; 2016: 18; 2017: 14.8; 2018: 12.5; 2019: 10.9; 2020: 9.8; 2021: 8.6; 2022: 7.9; 2023: 6.7; 2024: 5.4; 2025: 3.7World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Brazil2005: 13.7; 2006: 11.4; 2007: 10.8; 2008: 9.1; 2009: 8.4; 2011: 7.1; 2012: 6.4; 2013: 5.4; 2014: 4.8; 2015: 5.4; 2016: 6.5; 2017: 7; 2018: 6.9; 2019: 7; 2020: 2.8; 2021: 7.5; 2022: 4.9; 2023: 3.8; 2024: 3World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
India2009: 34.6; 2011: 27.1; 2022: 5.3; 2023: 2.6World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Mexico2005: 11.7; 2006: 9; 2008: 10.1; 2010: 8.4; 2012: 7.3; 2014: 7.2; 2016: 4.4; 2018: 3.9; 2020: 4.3; 2022: 2.3; 2024: 1.6World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Egypt2008: 3.7; 2010: 1.5; 2012: 1.2; 2015: 1.2; 2017: 3.1; 2019: 2; 2021: 1.4World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Japan2008: 1.1; 2009: 0.8; 2010: 0.6; 2011: 0.5; 2012: 1.4; 2013: 0.9; 2014: 0.7; 2015: 0.4; 2016: 0.7; 2017: 0.6; 2018: 1; 2019: 1.3; 2020: 1.2World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
United States2005: 1; 2006: 1.1; 2007: 1; 2008: 1.1; 2009: 1; 2010: 1.1; 2011: 1.1; 2012: 1.1; 2013: 1.1; 2014: 1.3; 2015: 1.2; 2016: 1.2; 2017: 1.3; 2018: 1.1; 2019: 1; 2020: 0.4; 2021: 0.3; 2022: 1.4; 2023: 1.2; 2024: 1.1World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
Russia2005: 1.4; 2006: 0.9; 2007: 0.4; 2008: 0.2; 2009: 0.2; 2010: 0.2; 2011: 0.1; 2012: 0.1; 2013: 0.1; 2014: 0.4; 2015: 0.4; 2016: 0.4; 2017: 0.4; 2018: 0.2; 2019: 0.3; 2020: 0.1; 2021: 0.2; 2022: 0.1; 2023: 0.1World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day
China2005: 32.9; 2008: 26.1; 2010: 20.6; 2011: 15.3; 2012: 12.9; 2013: 6; 2014: 4.6; 2015: 2.9; 2016: 2.1; 2017: 1.6; 2018: 0.7; 2019: 0; 2020: 0; 2021: 0; 2022: 0World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day

As of 2026-10-31. World Bank indicator SI.POV.DDAY, $3.00 a day at 2021 prices, updated 2026-10-08. Largest 15 by 2025 population. Surveys are not yearly; a faded bar is the last one. The Bank warns India's last drop may partly reflect better survey measurement. Sources: World Bank, Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day.

Questions about this story

Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.

No questions yet — be the first to ask.

Key Indicators

496 million
People lifted above $4.20 a day
Estimated number who rose above the lower-middle-income country poverty line between 2011 and 2023.
2.6%
Extreme poverty rate in 2023
Share living below $3 a day, down from 27.1% in 2011.
16.1%
Poverty rate at $4.20 a day in 2023
Down from 57.7% in 2011, based on World Bank estimates using 2021 purchasing power parity.
233 million
People still below $4.20 a day
The World Bank's estimate of India's remaining poor population in 2023.
12.1%
Projected poverty rate in 2028
The bank's projection for the $4.20-a-day line, down from an estimated 14.2% in 2026.
13x
Top-to-bottom earnings gap
Median earnings of the top 10% of workers were about 13 times those of the bottom 10% in 2023.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Log in Sign Up

People Involved

Nirmala Sitharaman
Nirmala Sitharaman
Finance Minister of India
In office; welcomed the World Bank's October 2026 poverty estimates

Organizations Involved

World Bank Group
World Bank Group
International financial institution
Publisher of the October 2026 India Poverty and Equity Brief

The World Bank publishes the Poverty and Equity Briefs that set the international poverty lines used in this story.
Ministry of Finance, Government of India
Ministry of Finance, Government of India
Government ministry
Welcomed the World Bank's poverty findings

The ministry manages India's federal budget, tax policy and social spending.

Timeline

2011 October 2026

6 events Latest: Yesterday
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. October brief projects poverty falling to 12.1% by 2028

    Latest Report

    The World Bank's October 2026 brief estimates 233 million people remain poor and projects a gradual decline to 12.1% by 2028.

  2. Development update counts 232 million poor

    Report

    The April 2026 India Development Update estimates about 232 million people remain below $4.20 a day.

  3. World Bank revises India poverty methodology

    Methodology

    The bank applies a revised estimation method to the 2023-24 survey to keep long-term comparisons consistent.

  4. Survey shows poverty at 16.1%

    Data

    The 2023-24 survey puts $4.20 poverty at 16.1% and extreme poverty at 2.6%.

  5. Survey shows poverty at 24%

    Data

    The 2022-23 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey puts $4.20 poverty at 24% and extreme poverty at 5.3%.

  6. Household survey sets poverty baseline

    Data

    The 2011-12 survey shows 57.7% of Indians below $4.20 a day and 27.1% below $3 a day.

Scenarios

1

World Bank confirms India's $4.20 poverty rate at or below 12.1% by 2028

Likely Resolves by Q2 2029

Discussed by: World Bank poverty projections in the October 2026 brief

The bank's baseline assumes consumption growth continues and employment gains hold. If so, the $4.20-a-day poverty rate falls from an estimated 14.2% in 2026 to 12.1% in 2028, extending the long decline.

2

Youth unemployment keeps poverty above 14% through 2028

Possible Resolves by Q2 2029

Discussed by: World Bank caveats on youth unemployment and low-productivity work

The bank reports youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9% between early 2026 and mid-2026, especially among rural young women. If low-productivity employment persists, the projected poverty decline could stall.

3

New survey forces upward revision of India's 2023 poverty rate

Unlikely Resolves by End of 2028

Discussed by: World Bank caveats about survey measurement and year-to-year comparisons

The bank says the 2022-23 to 2023-24 drop is unusually large and may partly reflect better data collection. A later survey or methodology review could revise the 2023 estimate upward, changing the scale of the story.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1978-1984

China's rural reforms (1978-1984)

China replaced collective farming with household contracts, giving rural families control over what they produced and sold after quota payments. Agricultural output and rural incomes rose.

Then

Rural poverty fell sharply as farm productivity and household incomes increased.

Now

Growth later shifted toward cities and exports, while rural inequality persisted.

Why this matters now

India's remaining poor are concentrated in rural areas, making farm and rural non-farm productivity central to whether the decline continues.

2003-2010s

Brazil's Bolsa Família (2003-2010s)

Brazil combined cash transfers with conditions on school attendance and health checkups for poor families. The program expanded to cover millions of households.

Then

Poverty and income inequality fell during the 2000s.

Now

The program survived changes in government but remained fiscally and politically contested.

Why this matters now

India's food subsidies and social transfers are part of its poverty story, and Brazil's experience shows both the reach and the limits of transfer-based gains.

1991

India's 1991 liberalization

A balance-of-payments crisis forced India to loosen licensing rules, cut tariffs and open parts of the economy to foreign investment.

Then

Growth accelerated and inflation eased after the immediate crisis.

Now

Poverty fell over the following decades, but progress varied widely across states.

Why this matters now

Today's poverty decline builds on decades of growth, yet the World Bank says a belt from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal still holds about 57% of India's poor.

Sources

(6)
+1
Firstpost World Bank World Bank ET Now The Times of India World Bank