Embassy evacuations, internet blackouts, and thousands dead as regime confronts its largest uprising in 47 years
Embassy evacuations, internet blackouts, and thousands dead as regime confronts its largest uprising in 47 years
Overview
The Islamic Republic has survived four decades of protests—but never anything like this. What began on December 28 as Tehran bazaar merchants protesting a collapsing currency has become Iran's largest uprising since the 1979 revolution, with demonstrations reported in all 31 provinces. The government responded with an internet blackout and live ammunition. Human rights groups estimate more than 2,600 dead, with leaked government documents suggesting the toll could exceed 12,000.
Western embassies are now evacuating. Britain and New Zealand closed their Tehran missions this week, relocating staff to Turkey. The UN Security Council met in emergency session but issued no resolution as the U.S. and Iran traded accusations. Meanwhile, the Trump administration weighs military options while Arab allies urge restraint, and the G7 threatens additional sanctions if the killing continues.
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Key Indicators
2,600+
Confirmed deaths
Human Rights Activists News Agency count as of January 15—four times the Mahsa Amini protest toll in two weeks
18,000+
Detained
Estimated arrests since protests began, per human rights monitors
31
Provinces affected
Protests reported across every province in Iran
99%
Internet blackout
Near-total shutdown since January 8 to conceal crackdown
People Involved
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Supreme Leader of Iran (Ordered live-fire response to protests)
Masoud Pezeshkian
President of Iran (Attempting mediating stance while security forces use lethal force)
Winston Peters
Foreign Minister of New Zealand (Ordered embassy evacuation, condemned crackdown)
Donald Trump
President of the United States (Weighing military options against Iran)
Organizations Involved
IS
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Military/Paramilitary Force
Status: Primary force carrying out crackdown
Iran's ideological military force, responsible for internal security and external operations, directly commanded by the Supreme Leader.
HU
Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA)
Human Rights Organization
Status: Primary source tracking death toll and arrests
U.S.-based Iranian human rights monitoring group tracking protest casualties and detentions.
UN
United Nations Security Council
International Body
Status: Held emergency session; no resolution issued
The UN's primary body responsible for international peace and security, with five permanent members holding veto power.
Timeline
New Zealand Evacuates Tehran Embassy
Diplomatic
New Zealand closes Tehran embassy, evacuates diplomatic staff to Ankara. Foreign Minister Peters urges all 46 registered New Zealanders in Iran to leave immediately.
UN Security Council Meets, Issues No Resolution
Diplomatic
Emergency session requested by U.S. ends without consensus. Russia and China oppose intervention; Iran accuses U.S. of 'direct involvement' in unrest.
U.S. Imposes New Sanctions
Sanctions
Treasury sanctions 18 individuals and entities including national security chief Ali Larijani for orchestrating crackdown and laundering oil revenues.
UK Evacuates Tehran Embassy
Diplomatic
Britain closes its Tehran embassy and evacuates ambassador and all staff, citing worsening security. Embassy to operate remotely.
G7 Threatens Additional Sanctions
Diplomatic
G7 foreign ministers express 'grave concern' and warn of additional sanctions if crackdown continues.
Mass Casualties Reported Amid Blackout
Crackdown
Iran International reports 2,000 killed in 48 hours. Guardian documents reports of 'hundreds of bodies' in Tehran. Video shows 120+ body bags at Behesht Zahra Cemetery.
Attorney General: Protesters Are 'Enemies of God'
Legal
Iran's attorney general declares participation in protests punishable by death under 'moharebeh' charges.
Protests Reach All 31 Provinces
Protest
Demonstrations reported in at least 185 cities across every Iranian province. Millions participate.
99% Internet Blackout Begins
Censorship
Iran imposes near-total internet shutdown. Authorities also jam GPS signals to disrupt Starlink connections.
Iraqi Militias Cross Into Iran
Military
Nearly 5,000 Iraqi militia fighters from Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and other groups enter Iran to assist with crackdown.
Khamenei: 'Rioters Must Be Put in Their Place'
Statement
Supreme Leader signals hardline response after Trump warns U.S. will help protesters if Iran 'shoots' them.
Government Declares Holiday as Protests Spread
Political
Authorities close offices and schools, but demonstrations spread to 17 of 31 provinces. Oil workers and truckers join the strikes.
Central Bank Chief Resigns
Political
Mohammad Reza Farzin resigns as head of Iran's Central Bank as protests spread beyond Tehran.
Protests Erupt Over Currency Collapse
Protest
Tehran bazaar merchants shutter shops as the rial collapses to 1.44 million per dollar. Demonstrations begin at Alaeddin Shopping Centre and spread to other commercial centers.
UN Snapback Sanctions Reimposed
Diplomatic
United Nations reimposed nuclear-related sanctions on Iran through the 'snapback' mechanism, further squeezing the economy.
12-Day Israel-Iran War Ends
Military
Israel and the U.S. strike Iran's nuclear facilities during 12-day conflict, killing 436 Iranian civilians and severely damaging Iran's nuclear program and air defenses.
Scenarios
1
Protests Smothered, Regime Survives Weakened
Discussed by: NPR, PBS, analysts noting protest activity has slowed under heavy security presence
The internet blackout and mass use of lethal force succeed in suppressing the uprising, as they did in 2019 and 2022. Protests peter out over the next 1-2 weeks. The regime survives but is further delegitimized domestically and internationally, with expanded sanctions limiting economic recovery. This resembles the aftermath of the 2019 'Bloody November' protests.
2
U.S. Military Strikes Iranian Security Infrastructure
Discussed by: CNN, NBC News, Wall Street Journal reporting on administration deliberations
Trump authorizes limited strikes on IRGC facilities or security infrastructure responsible for the crackdown. Arab allies have urged restraint, but if credible evidence of ongoing massacres emerges—or if Iran retaliates against U.S. assets—the administration may act. Military planners have discussed long-range missiles, cyber operations, and targeting security service facilities.
Sustained pressure from protests, combined with sanctions and international isolation, creates fissures within the regime. Military or IRGC elements refuse to continue mass killings, or elite defections accelerate. This would likely require weeks of continued unrest and external pressure. Some analysts note the regime has never faced simultaneous economic collapse, military defeat (June 2025), and mass mobilization.
4
Regional Escalation: Israel Strikes, Iran Retaliates
Discussed by: Wall Street Journal, Times of Israel, reporting on Netanyahu-Trump discussions
Israel, seeing regime vulnerability, strikes Iranian missile facilities or remaining nuclear infrastructure—a 'round two' after June 2025. Iran retaliates against U.S. bases or Israeli territory, potentially drawing in the United States. This scenario becomes more likely if the regime appears to be collapsing and regional powers race to shape the outcome.
Historical Context
Iran's 'Bloody November' (2019)
November 2019
What Happened
Protests erupted after the government announced a 50-200% fuel price increase. Demonstrations spread to 21 cities within hours. The government imposed a six-day internet blackout and security forces used live ammunition, killing an estimated 300-1,500 people according to varying sources. Amnesty International documented 321 deaths.
Outcome
Short Term
Protests were suppressed within days. Over 7,000 arrested. No officials held accountable.
Long Term
Established the regime's willingness to use mass lethal force and internet blackouts to crush dissent. Created template for 2026 crackdown.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2026 crackdown follows the same playbook—internet shutdown, live ammunition, foreign militia support—but at significantly larger scale. Death tolls already exceed 2019 figures by 8-10x in just two weeks.
The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in morality police custody sparked months of protests across Iran, with demonstrators calling for an end to mandatory hijab laws and broader political freedoms. Security forces killed approximately 551 people and detained over 22,000.
Outcome
Short Term
Protests were eventually suppressed through arrests, executions, and sustained violence. Seven protesters were executed.
Long Term
Severely damaged the regime's legitimacy, particularly among women and youth. Created network of dissent that reactivated in 2026.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2026 protests have killed four times as many people in two weeks as the entire Mahsa Amini uprising. The current movement builds on grievances and networks from 2022 but has broader participation across economic classes.
Syria's Uprising and Embassy Closures (2011)
March - December 2011
What Happened
Anti-government protests began in Daraa after security forces killed demonstrators. Assad responded with escalating violence—over 4,000 dead by year's end. Western countries closed embassies as the situation deteriorated; Qatar closed its embassy after pro-Assad mobs attacked it.
Outcome
Short Term
Protests transformed into armed rebellion. UN Security Council remained deadlocked as Russia and China vetoed intervention.
Long Term
Began civil war that killed 500,000+ and displaced millions. Assad survived with Russian and Iranian support.
Why It's Relevant Today
Embassy evacuations signal international assessment that a country has crossed from instability into potential state collapse or war. The same pattern of Western diplomatic withdrawal is now occurring in Iran. However, Iran lacks the ethnic/sectarian fractures that fueled Syria's civil war.
