On December 28, shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their stalls and took to the streets. The Iranian rial had just hit 1.4 million to the dollar—double its value from a year earlier. Within days, the protests spread to all 31 provinces, evolved from economic grievances into demands for regime change, and drew comparisons to the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic to power.
The government's response has been the deadliest in modern Iranian history. Human rights groups estimate between 2,500 and 12,000 protesters killed during an internet blackout imposed January 8. The U.S. Treasury on January 15 sanctioned Ali Larijani, Iran's security chief, along with four regional commanders and 18 entities in Iran's shadow banking network—freezing assets and signaling Washington views the crackdown as orchestrated at the highest levels.
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Key Indicators
2,500–12,000
Estimated protesters killed
Death toll estimates vary widely due to an internet blackout imposed January 8; some sources cite figures as high as 20,000.
31
Provinces with protests
Demonstrations have reached every Iranian province, including areas typically loyal to the regime.
1.4M
Rials per dollar
The currency has lost over 50% of its value in 12 months, triggering 72% food price inflation.
18,000+
Arrested
Detainees face charges including moharebeh ('waging war against God'), which carries the death penalty.
People Involved
Ali Larijani
Secretary, Supreme National Security Council (Sanctioned by U.S. Treasury on January 15, 2026)
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Supreme Leader of Iran (Directing crackdown from the top of the command structure)
Masoud Pezeshkian
President of Iran (Caught between reform rhetoric and security apparatus demands)
Reza Pahlavi
Exiled Crown Prince of Iran (Positioning as transitional leader; met with Trump envoy)
Scott Bessent
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury (Announced sanctions on Iranian officials)
Organizations Involved
SU
Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)
Iranian Government Body
Status: Coordinating regime response to protests
Iran's primary body for coordinating national security policy, including defense strategy and internal stability.
IS
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Military/Security Force
Status: Leading crackdown in multiple provinces
Iran's elite military force, responsible for internal security and ideologically committed to the Islamic Republic's survival.
US
US Department of the Treasury – OFAC
U.S. Government Agency
Status: Implementing sanctions on Iranian officials
Administers and enforces U.S. economic sanctions, including asset freezes and transaction prohibitions.
Timeline
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Iranian Officials
International
Treasury designated Ali Larijani and four regional commanders as crackdown architects. Also sanctioned: Fardis Prison and 18 individuals/entities in shadow banking networks tied to Bank Melli and Shahr Bank.
U.S. Warns Iran Against Executing Protesters
International
The State Department announced Iran planned to execute detained protester Erfan Soltani, 26. President Trump warned of 'strong action' if executions proceed.
Trump Envoy Meets Pahlavi Secretly
International
White House envoy Steve Witkoff met secretly with Reza Pahlavi, the first high-level contact between the Trump administration and Iranian opposition since protests began.
Death Toll Estimate Reaches 12,000
Casualties
Iran International concluded an investigation estimating at least 12,000 civilians killed, based on government sources, eyewitness accounts, and hospital data.
Death Toll Passes 2,000 Amid Blackout
Casualties
Iran International reported at least 2,000 protesters killed over the previous 48 hours. Hospitals in Tehran and Shiraz were overwhelmed with gunshot victims.
Millions Protest Across All 31 Provinces
Protest
Demonstrations reached their peak despite the blackout, with millions taking to streets in all provinces. Death toll estimates began diverging dramatically.
Nationwide Internet Blackout Imposed
Government Response
Iranian authorities cut internet access across the country. Human rights groups reported mass casualties began that night, with Tehran hospitals recording 217 protester deaths.
Pahlavi Calls for General Strikes
Opposition
Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and seven Kurdish political parties called for sustained protests and general strikes.
Pezeshkian Orders Forces Not to Target Peaceful Protesters
Government Response
President Pezeshkian issued an order barring action against peaceful protesters, though the directive had limited effect on security forces.
Khamenei: 'Rioters Must Be Put in Their Place'
Government Response
Supreme Leader Khamenei distinguished between 'protesters' and 'rioters,' signaling the crackdown would intensify. The IRGC's Lorestan corps declared 'tolerance' over.
Government Orders Closures in 21 Provinces
Government Response
Authorities ordered broad closures across 21 of 31 provinces as protests spread nationwide.
Tehran Bazaar Strike Ignites Protests
Protest
Shopkeepers at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their stalls over the rial's collapse to 1.4 million per dollar. Demonstrations spread to other commercial centers within hours.
UN Reimposed Nuclear Sanctions
International
The United Nations reimposed sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, further straining the economy.
Larijani Appointed SNSC Secretary
Political
President Pezeshkian appointed Ali Larijani to lead the Supreme National Security Council, placing a veteran security figure in charge of crisis coordination.
Ceasefire Ends 12-Day War
Military
Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire under U.S. pressure. The rial began a sustained collapse, losing over 40% of its value by December.
12-Day War with Israel Begins
Military
Israel launched surprise strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles. The conflict killed over 1,000 Iranians and caused $24–35 billion in economic damage.
Scenarios
1
Regime Survives Through Sustained Repression
Discussed by: Al Jazeera, analysts at Brookings Institution
The IRGC and security forces restore order through continued lethal force. Protests dissipate as they did after 2022. The regime emerges weaker, more isolated, and more dependent on coercion—but intact. This scenario requires security forces to remain unified and willing to kill at scale, and assumes no significant military defections.
Discussed by: Euronews, Iranian analyst cited in coverage
Under pressure, the Supreme Leader replaces hardline advisers and announces genuinely competitive elections for June. This would require Khamenei to prioritize regime survival over ideological control—a departure from 35 years of behavior. No evidence suggests this is under consideration.
3
Regime Collapse: Pahlavi Returns as Transitional Figure
Discussed by: Hudson Institute, Foreign Policy, Carnegie Endowment
Security forces fracture, key IRGC units refuse orders, and the regime loses control of major cities. Reza Pahlavi returns from exile to lead a transitional government. This would require military defections at scale not yet observed and a level of opposition coordination that does not currently exist.
4
Civil War and Fragmentation
Discussed by: Atlantic Council, Iranian analysts
The crackdown continues but fails to restore order. Armed resistance emerges. Iran fragments along ethnic or regional lines, with Kurdish, Baluchi, and other regions breaking away. Western intervention or regional power involvement deepens the conflict.
Historical Context
Iranian Revolution (1979)
January 1978 – February 1979
What Happened
Protests against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi began over economic grievances and spread to demand his removal. The Shah's forces killed thousands, but up to 9 million Iranians eventually took to the streets. Key to the outcome: military units defected to the protesters, and Ayatollah Khomeini provided unified leadership from exile.
Outcome
Short Term
The Shah fled on January 16, 1979. Khomeini returned two weeks later. The monarchy was abolished.
Long Term
The Islamic Republic replaced a 2,500-year-old monarchy. Iran's foreign policy, economy, and society were fundamentally transformed.
Why It's Relevant Today
Current protests are the largest since 1979, with similar economic triggers and bazaari involvement. The key difference: today's movement lacks unified leadership, and security forces have not defected.
Mahsa Amini Protests (2022–2023)
September 2022 – Spring 2023
What Happened
Mahsa Amini, 22, died in custody after arrest by the morality police for wearing her hijab 'improperly.' Protests spread to all provinces under the slogan 'Woman, Life, Freedom.' Security forces killed over 500 people and arrested 22,000. Seven protesters were executed.
Outcome
Short Term
The regime suppressed the protests through sustained violence and internet blackouts.
Long Term
A UN fact-finding mission found Iran committed crimes against humanity. The movement normalized anti-regime sentiment among younger Iranians.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2022 protests established the playbook the regime is using now: internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force. The current death toll is already 5–20 times higher.
Romanian Revolution (1989)
December 16–25, 1989
What Happened
Economic austerity under Nicolae Ceaușescu impoverished Romania despite foreign debt repayment. Protests in Timișoara over a pastor's eviction spread nationwide. Security forces killed over 100, but on December 21, crowds booed Ceaușescu during a televised speech. The army switched sides within 24 hours.
Outcome
Short Term
Ceaușescu fled Bucharest on December 22 and was captured, tried, and executed on December 25.
Long Term
Romania transitioned to democracy—the only violent overthrow among 1989's Eastern European revolutions.
Why It's Relevant Today
Romania shows how economic misery can fuel regime-ending protests—but only when security forces fracture. Iran's IRGC remains ideologically committed to the regime in ways Romania's army was not.
