Pull to refresh
Logo
Daily Brief
Following
Why Ranks Sign Up
Iran's currency in free fall

Iran's currency in free fall

Force in Play

Central Bank governor resigns as rial loses 70% of value, merchants strike enters third day, and IRGC mobilizes Basij forces as protesters chant 'Death to the Dictator'

December 30th, 2025: Protests Enter Third Day; IRGC Deploys Basij

Overview

Iran's Central Bank governor resigned December 29 after the rial collapsed to 1.42 million per dollar (a 70% drop during his tenure), triggering the largest street protests in three years. By December 30, merchants had kept Tehran's historic Grand Bazaar shuttered for three days, and crowds in Isfahan, Shiraz, Kermanshah, and Mashhad chanted 'Death to the Dictator' and 'Death to Khamenei'.

Security forces fired tear gas and live ammunition. Foodstuff prices have jumped 72% year-over-year. The crisis traces back to 2018, when Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, starting seven years of economic warfare.

Average wages are $100 a month, inflation runs 42-52%, and Trump's second administration's 'maximum pressure' sanctions have cut oil exports by a third. The regime faces its deepest crisis since the 1979 revolution. The IRGC declared 100% readiness and deployed Basij militia convoys to Tehran as students joined the bazaar merchants, the same alliance that toppled the shah, while Pezeshkian's call for dialogue goes unheeded.

Play on this story Voices Debate Predict

Key Indicators

1.38M
Rials per dollar (Dec 30)
Down slightly from 1.42M peak on Dec 28; still up from 430,000 when Farzin took office in 2022
72%
Food price inflation (YoY)
Overall inflation at 42-52% depending on source, approaching hyperinflation threshold
$100
Average monthly wage
Poverty line is $450/month for household of 3.5 people; 30% of Iranians now below poverty line
500K
Barrels/day oil export decline
Down from 1.8M in early 2025 to 1.3M by December under renewed Trump sanctions
3 Days
Grand Bazaar strike duration
Historic commercial center shuttered Dec 28-30; merchants vow to continue until demands met

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Play

Exploring all sides of a story is often best achieved with Play.

Log in to play. Track your picks, climb the leaderboards. Log in Sign Up
Predict 5 ways this could play out. Contrarian picks score more — points lock when the scenario resolves. Log in to play
Timeline Five events from this story — drag them oldest to newest. Log in to play
Connections Sixteen names from the news. Find the four hidden groups of four. Log in to play

People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

July 2015 December 2025

16 events Latest: December 30th, 2025 · 5 months ago Showing 8 of 16
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Protests Enter Third Day; IRGC Deploys Basij

    Latest Political

    Student organizations join merchant strikes as demonstrations spread to Kermanshah and Qom. IRGC declares 100% readiness, deploys Basij militia convoys to Tehran. Security forces fire live ammunition in Hamadan.

  2. Pezeshkian Orders Dialogue with Protesters

    Political

    President instructs interior minister to engage with demonstrators as chants of 'Death to Khamenei' spread. Admits budget cannot match 50% inflation with proposed 20% wage increase.

  3. Grand Bazaar Strikes, Protests Spread

    Political

    Tehran's Grand Bazaar paralyzed by strikes. Protests in Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad. Police fire tear gas.

  4. Central Bank Governor Resigns

    Leadership

    Farzin resigns amid largest protests in three years. Hemmati appointed replacement same day.

  5. Rial Collapses to Record 1.42M

    Economic

    Currency plunges 7% in single day to 1.42 million per dollar. Merchants begin shutting shops.

  6. U.S. Sanctions 115 Iran Entities

    Economic

    Trump administration sanctions major oil network. Oil exports drop from 1.8M to 1.3M barrels/day.

  7. Finance Minister Hemmati Impeached

    Political

    Parliament impeaches Abdolnasser Hemmati as finance minister over economic management failures.

  8. Trump Restores Maximum Pressure

    Policy

    Trump's second administration signs memorandum reimposing maximum pressure sanctions targeting oil exports.

  9. Rial Falls to 1.3 Million Per Dollar

    Economic

    Currency slides to new low of 1.3 million per dollar, underscoring accelerating decline in December.

  10. Inflation Peaks at 64%

    Economic

    Year-over-year inflation reaches 64%; some food items exceed 90%. Poverty rises to 30.1% of population.

  11. Farzin Appointed Central Bank Governor

    Leadership

    Mohammad Reza Farzin tasked with stabilizing economy. Rial trading at 430,000 per dollar at appointment.

  12. Mahsa Amini Dies, Protests Erupt

    Political

    Woman dies in police custody for 'improper hijab.' Nationwide 'Woman, Life, Freedom' protests begin; 20,000 arrested, 500+ killed.

  13. Inflation Hits 87% for Food

    Economic

    Raisi administration eliminates preferential exchange rate for essential goods. Overall inflation reaches 40.5%, food inflation 87%.

  14. Full Sanctions Reimposed

    Economic

    All U.S. sanctions suspended under nuclear deal reactivated. Iran's banking system cut off from global finance.

  15. Trump Exits Nuclear Deal

    Policy

    U.S. withdraws from JCPOA, announces 'maximum pressure' sanctions targeting oil exports and banking access.

  16. Iran Nuclear Deal Signed

    Diplomatic

    JCPOA implemented; Iran limits nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Rial trades at 32,000 per dollar.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

2016-2021

Venezuela Currency Collapse (2016-2021)

U.S. sanctions on oil exports (Venezuela's primary revenue source) combined with government mismanagement triggered hyperinflation exceeding 1,000,000% in 2018. The bolivar became worthless—prices doubled every 19 days at the peak—forcing citizens into black markets and dollar transactions. The regime printed money rather than reform, accelerating the spiral.

Then

Currency abandoned; economy dollarized informally. GDP contracted 75% from 2013-2020.

Now

Maduro regime survived through repression despite economic devastation. Millions fled; poverty reached 94%.

Why this matters now

Iran's trajectory mirrors Venezuela: oil sanctions, currency collapse, inflation approaching hyperinflation thresholds. Shows autocracies can survive economic implosion through coercion, but at enormous human cost.

1989-1990

Argentina Peso Crisis (1989-1990)

Excessive government spending and printing money to finance deficits caused inflation to exceed 2,600% annually. The peso lost nearly all value. Supermarket riots erupted as Argentines couldn't afford food. The crisis forced regime change—President Alfonsín resigned early—and radical economic reform under successor Carlos Menem.

Then

Currency board established, peso pegged to dollar. Inflation crushed through monetary discipline.

Now

Stabilization lasted a decade before 2001 debt crisis. Pattern of boom-bust cycles continued.

Why this matters now

Demonstrates how currency collapse can force political transitions and policy reversals. Iran's 72% food inflation echoes Argentina's supermarket riots. Question is whether Iran's theocracy proves more resilient than Argentina's democracy.

1977-1979

Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution

The shah's anti-profiteering campaign and price controls in 1975 alienated Tehran's Grand Bazaar merchants. They allied with clergy, funding protests and striking to paralyze the economy. When the bazaar shut down in 1978-79, it signaled the traditional middle class had turned against the monarchy. The shah fled; Khomeini's theocracy took power.

Then

Monarchy toppled; Islamic Republic established with clergy in control.

Now

Bazaar-clergy alliance eroded as theocracy consolidated power and pursued policies hurting merchants.

Why this matters now

The same Grand Bazaar that brought down the shah is striking again—this time against the Islamic Republic. If history repeats, merchant rebellion signals existential regime threat. But the clergy now controls the security state, not just protests.

Sources

(17)