Iran turns to Russia to rebuild shattered air defenses after June 2025 war

Overview

In June 2025, Israeli and American strikes destroyed roughly a third of Iran's air defense network in twelve days. Eight months later, leaked Russian documents show Tehran is spending billions to replace what it lost—and then some. A newly revealed €500 million deal for 500 Russian-made Verba shoulder-fired missile launchers and 2,500 missiles, signed secretly in December 2025, is the latest piece of a sweeping rearmament campaign that also includes S-400 long-range batteries and up to 48 Su-35 fighter jets.

In This Story

3 Videos

4 People

Arms deals complicate but don't derail nuclear talks

3 Context

Soviet rearming of Egypt and Syria after the Six-Day War (1967–1973)

Key Indicators

€500M

Verba MANPADS deal value

Secret December 2025 contract for 500 launchers and 2,500 missiles, with deliveries from 2027 to 2029

€6B

Su-35 fighter jet deal value

Reported contract for 48 Su-35 jets, with first deliveries begun in late 2024

~120

Air defense systems destroyed

Roughly one-third of Iran's pre-war air defense network was destroyed or disabled in June 2025 strikes

2027–2029

Verba delivery window

Three tranches of shoulder-fired missiles scheduled across three years

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People Involved

Masoud Pezeshkian

President of Iran (Leading nuclear negotiations while overseeing military rebuilding)

Vladimir Putin

President of Russia (Expanding arms exports to Iran amid ongoing war in Ukraine)

Abbas Araghchi

Foreign Minister of Iran (Leading Iran's delegation in nuclear talks with the US)

Donald Trump

President of the United States (Setting deadlines for Iran nuclear deal while deploying carriers to the Gulf)

Organizations Involved

Rosoboronexport

State Arms Exporter

Status: Counterparty to the €500M Verba MANPADS deal

Russia's sole state-authorized intermediary for military exports and imports, responsible for negotiating and executing all major Russian arms deals abroad.

Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL)

Government Ministry

Status: Iranian counterparty to the Verba MANPADS deal

Iran's defense procurement authority, responsible for negotiating arms purchases and overseeing military-industrial production.

Timeline

Financial Times reveals secret €500M Verba MANPADS deal
Revelation

The Financial Times reported on leaked Russian documents and sources confirming the December 2025 agreement for shoulder-fired missile systems, surfacing the deal as a third round of nuclear talks is days away.
6 days ago
Second round of nuclear talks concludes in Geneva
Diplomacy

Both sides described the talks as productive, but core disagreements remained over uranium enrichment. Iran offered a three-to-five-year suspension; Washington demanded permanent zero enrichment.
February 17th, 2026
US and Iran hold first nuclear talks in Muscat
Diplomacy

Indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran began in Oman's capital, mediated by Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi.
February 6th, 2026
Iran and Russia sign three-year diplomatic cooperation plan
Diplomacy

Foreign ministers Araghchi and Lavrov signed a consultation program for 2026–2028, formalizing regular coordination between the two governments.
December 17th, 2025
Iran and Russia secretly sign €500M Verba MANPADS deal
Procurement

Rosoboronexport and Iran's defense ministry signed a confidential agreement in Moscow for 500 Verba launchers and 2,500 missiles, with deliveries scheduled in three tranches from 2027 to 2029.
December 1st, 2025
Leaked documents reveal €6B Su-35 fighter jet deal
Revelation

Iran International reported on leaked Russian defense files showing Iran agreed to purchase 48 Su-35 fighter jets for approximately €6 billion, with deliveries extending through 2028.
October 6th, 2025
Iran-Russia strategic partnership treaty enters into force
Legal

The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement was officially implemented after completing ratification in both countries.
October 2nd, 2025
Iran formally requests Verba MANPADS from Russia
Procurement

Iran's defense ministry submitted an official request to Rosoboronexport for Verba man-portable air defense systems, citing the destruction of its air defense network during the June war.
July 1st, 2025
Trump announces ceasefire with Iran
Diplomacy

A US-brokered ceasefire took effect after twelve days of hostilities that killed over 1,000 Iranians and 29 Israelis.
June 24th, 2025
US strikes Iranian nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer
Military

125 US military aircraft and a guided-missile submarine launched 75 precision munitions against the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites and remaining Iranian air defense assets.
June 22nd, 2025
Israel launches Operation Rising Lion against Iran
Military

Israel struck roughly 100 targets across Iran using over 200 fighter jets, destroying or disabling approximately 120 air defense systems—about one-third of Iran's pre-war total. Strikes targeted nuclear facilities, military bases, and air defense networks.
June 13th, 2025
Russian parliament ratifies Iran partnership treaty
Legal

The State Duma voted to ratify the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Iran.
April 8th, 2025
Iran and Russia sign 20-year strategic partnership treaty
Diplomacy

Presidents Putin and Pezeshkian signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in Moscow, covering military-technical cooperation, economic ties, and security coordination. The treaty does not include a mutual defense clause.
January 17th, 2025

Scenarios

Arms deals complicate but don't derail nuclear talks

Discussed by: Axios, Brookings Institution, European diplomatic sources

Washington uses the arms revelations as leverage to expand the scope of negotiations to include missile and conventional weapons limits, while Tehran argues the purchases are defensive responses to an unprovoked attack. Both sides have enough incentive to keep talking—Trump wants a signature foreign policy achievement, and Pezeshkian needs sanctions relief—so the deals become a bargaining chip rather than a dealbreaker. A nuclear agreement is reached that does not address conventional arms procurement.

Nuclear talks collapse, US launches new strikes

Discussed by: Axios analysis (February 18, 2026), Israeli security analysts, hawkish US commentators

Trump's stated deadline passes without agreement. The arms deal revelations harden Washington's position that Iran is using negotiations as cover for military buildup. With two carrier strike groups already positioned near Iranian waters, the US launches targeted strikes—likely against newly delivered Russian air defense equipment—creating a direct US-Russia friction point over destroyed Russian hardware on Iranian soil.

Iran builds a Russian-supplied deterrent that shifts regional power balance

Discussed by: Foreign Policy Research Institute, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Israeli defense analysts

If no new military action occurs, Iran's multi-billion-dollar procurement campaign reaches completion by 2028–2029. Operational S-400 batteries, Su-35 fighters, and distributed Verba MANPADS create layered air defenses far more capable than the network Israel destroyed in 2025. This raises the cost and complexity of any future strike campaign and could embolden Iran's regional posture, including arms transfers to proxy forces equipped with Russian-origin systems.

MANPADS proliferate to Iranian proxy groups across the Middle East

Discussed by: Federation of American Scientists, Arms Control Association, Israeli and US intelligence assessments

Iran has a documented history of transferring man-portable air defense systems to Hezbollah, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iraqi Shia militias. The Verba, with its advanced three-band seeker designed to defeat countermeasures, would represent a significant upgrade over the older Igla and Strela systems currently in proxy arsenals. If even a fraction of the 2,500 missiles reach non-state groups, it could threaten military and civilian aviation across the region.

Historical Context

Soviet rearming of Egypt and Syria after the Six-Day War (1967–1973)

June 1967 – October 1973

What Happened

Israel destroyed the Egyptian and Syrian air forces and air defenses in six days in June 1967. The Soviet Union immediately began a massive resupply, sending 13,000 military advisors to Egypt by late 1967—rising to 20,000 by 1970—along with hundreds of fighter jets, thousands of tanks, and advanced SA-6 air defense batteries.

Outcome

Short Term

Egypt and Syria rebuilt forces far larger and more capable than what they lost, including an integrated air defense network that inflicted heavy Israeli aircraft losses in the opening days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Long Term

The Soviet-supplied air defense umbrella changed the calculus of Middle Eastern air warfare and demonstrated that a devastated military could be reconstituted within years if a superpower patron committed to the effort.

Why It's Relevant Today

The parallel is direct: a Middle Eastern power whose air defenses were shattered turns to a major-power patron for rapid rebuilding. The key question is whether Russia can deliver at the scale and speed the Soviets managed in 1967–1973, especially while fighting its own war in Ukraine.

US Stinger MANPADS proliferation from Afghanistan (1986–1990s)

1986 – 1996

What Happened

The United States supplied approximately 2,000 FIM-92 Stinger shoulder-fired missiles to Afghan mujahideen fighting Soviet forces. The missiles downed an estimated 269 Soviet aircraft and helicopters, fundamentally changing the battlefield. After the Soviet withdrawal, the Central Intelligence Agency spent years and millions of dollars trying to buy back unused Stingers.

Outcome

Short Term

The Stingers helped end Soviet air dominance in Afghanistan and contributed to the Soviet withdrawal in 1989.

Long Term

An estimated 600 Stingers remained unaccounted for as of 1996. Black-market prices surged above $100,000 per missile, and MANPADS proliferation became a top-tier US security concern that shaped export controls for decades.

Why It's Relevant Today

The Afghan experience illustrates the proliferation risk inherent in large MANPADS transfers. Iran's history of supplying weapons to proxy groups raises the same concern: once 2,500 advanced missiles enter the supply chain, controlling their final destination becomes extremely difficult.

Russia’s delayed S-300 delivery to Iran (2007–2016)

2007 – October 2016

What Happened

Russia signed a contract to sell S-300 air defense systems to Iran in 2007. Under international pressure, President Dmitry Medvedev suspended the deal in 2010. After the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Putin lifted the ban, and Russia completed delivery of the S-300 batteries by October 2016—nine years after the original contract.

Outcome

Short Term

Iran deployed the S-300 around key nuclear and military sites, closing a major gap in its air defense coverage.

Long Term

The episode established a pattern: Russian arms sales to Iran serve as a barometer of Moscow's broader diplomatic calculations. Sales accelerate when Russia prioritizes the Iranian relationship over Western objections, and freeze when Moscow sees greater value in cooperating with the West.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current wave of deals—Verba, S-400, Su-35—is moving faster than the S-300 saga, reflecting how much the geopolitical landscape has shifted. With Russia under Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine, there is far less incentive for Moscow to exercise restraint on Iran arms sales.