Iran-aligned forces target US bases and embassies across the Middle East
Force in Play
A US intelligence memo says Iranian plots to kill American officials have reached 'advanced stages', as Washington pulls diplomats out of Saudi Arabia and Houthi missiles keep hitting the kingdom
American intelligence now says Iran has sharply increased efforts to kill US personnel, with the plotting at what the director of national intelligence called "advanced stages." A memo dated October 23 from Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the threat covers the Middle East and other countries.
The State Department placed its Saudi mission under ordered departure this week and ordered staff reductions at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan. Houthi missiles kept coming: Saudi air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh on October 24, and Saudi authorities say at least 21 people have died in attacks on the kingdom's airports since October 1. Two supertankers hit naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping attacks reached a monthly record.
Why it matters
Iran is now trying to kill American officials abroad, forcing the US to shrink its diplomatic footprint across the Middle East.
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Key Indicators
8
Months of war
Fighting began February 28; still active in late October
21
Killed in Houthi strikes on Saudi airports since Oct 1
Saudi authorities' count, reported October 24
13
Killed in the October 10 Riyadh airport strike
308 others injured; the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade, per the BBC
5
US missions ordered to cut staff
Riyadh embassy under ordered departure, plus embassies in the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan
20
Attacks on King Khalid airport since Oct 1
Saudi Joint Forces Command count as of October 15
2,388
Saudi strikes on Yemen since escalation (Houthi claim)
Houthi statement on Saudi airstrikes and missile attacks on Houthi-held territory
25+
US service members killed
Total as of late March 2026; the Pentagon has not released a later figure
300+
US service members wounded
Total as of late March 2026, including 12 wounded in the March 28 Saudi base strike
400+
Militia attacks claimed in Iraq
Extrapolated from 291 through March 11 at 20+/day pace; exact totals unreported
9
Countries with US/ally facilities hit
Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel
24 events
Latest: October 24th, 2026 · 1 week ago
Showing 8 of 24
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October 2026
Saudi defenses intercept missile aimed at Riyadh; Houthis claim three airports
LatestAttack
The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a ballistic missile fired toward Riyadh and two more aimed at Taif and Yanbu. The Houthis said they hit Riyadh, Dammam and Najran airports plus oil facilities and an east-west pipeline; fragments fell in Mecca and Jeddah. Flights to Riyadh and Dammam were suspended through November 7, and to Jeddah through October 31.
US orders diplomats out of Saudi Arabia and cuts staff at four more embassies
Diplomatic
The State Department put its Saudi mission under "ordered departure" and told family members and non-emergency staff to leave the embassy in Riyadh and the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran. It also ordered staff reductions at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan, citing Houthi attacks and Iranian plots against US officials.
Intelligence memo warns Iranian plots to kill US personnel reached 'advanced stages'
Political
Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Iran had "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel," with lethal plotting at advanced stages in the Middle East and other countries. The memo was dated October 23 and reported by Reuters, the Associated Press and NBC News.
Two supertankers hit mines near the Strait of Hormuz
Attack
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy reported that two supertankers using an unauthorized southern route through the strait struck naval mines, setting off explosions and fires that disabled their engine rooms. The same day, shipping attacks around Hormuz hit a monthly record.
Trump administration weighs options to strike Iran
Political
The administration is preparing a range of options against Iran, including the GBU-43 'mother of all bombs,' ABC News reported. Trump is also weighing US participation in the Saudi-led fight against the Houthis.
Saudi coalition intercepts drone; US warns on Saudi airports
Military
The Saudi-led coalition intercepted a drone aimed at the kingdom's Eastern Province. The US embassy urged Americans to use extreme caution at Saudi airports as Houthi attacks escalate.
Houthi attack on palace in Aden kills five
Attack
Five people were killed and 16 wounded in a Houthi attack on a palace in Aden, Yemen's temporary capital. The US also destroyed a dhow suspected of being an Iranian command-and-control vessel.
Saudi Arabia says Houthis hit Riyadh airport 20 times since October 1
Attack
The Saudi Joint Forces Command said the Houthis attacked King Khalid International Airport 20 times since October 1. At least 17 people died in Saudi Arabia between October 7 and 11, the command said.
Houthi missile hits Saudi fighter jet over Yemen
Attack
A Houthi surface-to-air missile struck a Saudi-operated Eurofighter Typhoon over Saada Governorate. Footage suggested the aircraft survived, deploying flares after the hit.
Houthi missile strike on Riyadh airport kills 13
Attack
A missile hit Riyadh's international airport, killing 13 people and injuring 308 — the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade, according to the BBC.
September 2026
Iran strikes US base in Jordan
Attack
Iran's bombardment of a base in Jordan used by American forces caused minimal damage and no deaths, two US officials said. It followed the US military's destruction of five Iranian oil tankers.
March 2026
Houthis launch second missile attack on Israel within 24 hours
Attack
Yemen's Houthis fired a second ballistic missile at Israel on March 29, following their initial strike on March 28. Both missiles were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, but falling debris injured 11 people in central Israel. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree pledged continued military operations in support of Iran.
Iran missile/drone barrage hits US forces at Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base
Attack
Six ballistic missiles and 29 drones wounded 12 US troops (2 seriously) and destroyed 3 KC-135 Stratotankers plus damaged E-3 Sentry. Most significant direct Iranian strike on US assets in one month of war.
Houthis fire first missiles at Israel, joining Iran proxy war
Attack
Yemen's Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel—including near Beersheba and nuclear research site—marking their entry after resisting Iranian requests. Expands 'resistance front' to eighth country.
Missile destroys helipad and air defense system at US Embassy Baghdad
Attack
A missile struck the US Embassy helipad in Baghdad's Green Zone at approximately 5:30 AM, destroying the C-RAM air defense system, its radar station, and a satellite communications array. The strike left the compound significantly more vulnerable to future attacks. Hours earlier, US strikes killed senior Kata'ib Hezbollah commander Abu Hassan al-Furaiji in Baghdad.
US strikes PMF headquarters across Iraq; French and Italian bases hit
Military
US airstrikes hit Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in Kirkuk province and near the Syrian border, killing nine fighters. Separately, a missile hit an Italian military base in Erbil, and a French training camp was struck — killing one French soldier and wounding six.
Drone strikes US diplomatic facility in Baghdad
Attack
A drone struck the US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center, a facility separate from the main embassy compound. The attack demonstrated that militia forces could reach multiple American sites within the capital.
First wartime attack on US Embassy in Baghdad
Attack
Four Katyusha rockets struck the US Embassy compound in the Green Zone — the first attack to land within the fortified district since the war began. Prime Minister al-Sudani ordered security forces to pursue the perpetrators.
Iranian drones hit US Embassy compound in Riyadh
Attack
Two drones struck the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia, causing a fire and minor material damage. Reports indicated the strike also hit a Central Intelligence Agency station within the compound. The embassy ordered Americans to shelter in place.
State Department orders non-emergency staff to leave Iraq
Diplomatic
The Department of State ordered non-emergency US government employees to depart Iraq and raised the travel advisory to Level 4 — Do Not Travel. Routine consular services at the Baghdad embassy and Erbil consulate were suspended indefinitely.
Drone swarms hit US installations in Erbil, Kurdistan Region
Attack
Saraya Awliya al-Dam claimed drone attacks on American bases in Erbil 'in retaliation for the blood of the martyr Khamenei.' The Kurdistan Region became the primary target zone, absorbing roughly 200 of the 291 attacks claimed through March 11.
February 2026
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
Military
Approximately 900 strikes hit Iranian targets in the first 12 hours. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in Tehran. Iran immediately retaliated with 247 ballistic missiles and 230 drones targeting US bases and Gulf states. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 16 operations against US targets on the first day.
Iranian drones hit US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain
Attack
Shahed-136 drones struck the Naval Support Activity compound at Juffair, destroying a radar dome. The base was declared unsafe, and approximately 8,300 US personnel were ordered to evacuate to off-base hotels.
Iranian missiles damage THAAD radar at US base in Jordan
Attack
Missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, destroying an advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense radar system. Satellite imagery showed 13-foot craters near the wreckage, with damage estimated at $300 million.
Scenarios
1
US evacuates Baghdad embassy as attacks overwhelm defenses
Possible
Discussed by: Defense analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and military correspondents at Stars and Stripes
With the C-RAM system destroyed and militia attacks averaging 20 per day, the embassy's defensive posture has degraded to a point where maintaining a diplomatic presence becomes untenable. The State Department has already ordered non-emergency departures and struggled to evacuate under fire. If attacks intensify or a strike causes mass casualties among remaining staff, a full evacuation — potentially requiring a military extraction under hostile conditions — becomes the likeliest outcome. This would echo the 2020 near-evacuation but under far more dangerous circumstances.
2
US retaliatory strikes degrade militia capacity, attacks slow to manageable levels
Possible
Discussed by: CENTCOM briefings and Pentagon correspondents at Fox News and CBS News
The killing of Kata'ib Hezbollah commander al-Furaiji on March 14 and the March 12 strikes on PMF headquarters across multiple provinces represent an escalating US effort to dismantle militia command structures. If sustained, these leadership strikes could fragment the Islamic Resistance in Iraq's coordination, reducing the attack tempo from dozens per day to sporadic incidents that existing defenses can manage. CENTCOM's claim that Iranian missile fire has dropped 90% suggests attrition is already working against state-level threats, though militia groups operate with greater independence.
3
Iraq expels remaining US forces, ending the American military presence
Possible
Discussed by: Al Jazeera analysts and Iraqi parliamentary commentators cited by The New Region
Prime Minister al-Sudani is under immense pressure from both sides. US strikes on PMF positions — which include units nominally under Iraqi government command — have drawn condemnation from Baghdad. If US operations continue killing Iraqi security-adjacent personnel, the political cost of hosting American forces could exceed the cost of expelling them. The Iraqi parliament passed a non-binding expulsion vote after the 2020 Soleimani killing; a binding version under current conditions would carry far more political momentum. The US had already withdrawn from most of federal Iraq before the war began, making a complete departure logistically simpler than in previous years.
4
Ceasefire halts regional hostilities, militia attacks taper off
Uncertain
Discussed by: Omani diplomatic sources, Iranian President Pezeshkian's March 12 ceasefire framework, and Latin American joint ceasefire calls
Iranian President Pezeshkian outlined three ceasefire conditions on March 12: recognition of Iran's rights, reparations, and guarantees against future aggression. If negotiations gain traction — particularly through Omani mediation or following the Putin-Trump call on March 11 — Iran could order its proxy forces to stand down. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq paused operations after US retaliatory strikes in February 2024, suggesting the militia command structure responds to Iranian direction. However, Iran's foreign minister has simultaneously stated Iran is 'not interested in negotiating with the US,' and the gap between the two sides' positions remains wide.
5
Israel launches strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, drawing US into new theater
Likely
Discussed by: Israeli military analysts, US Central Command assessments
With Houthis now directly targeting Israeli territory, Israeli leadership faces pressure to respond militarily. US support for such operations would expand the conflict into a fifth geographic theater (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel proper). However, Yemen's complex terrain and Houthi entrenchment in civilian areas could make sustained operations costly. The precedent of 2015-2022 Saudi-led campaign against Houthis—which failed to dislodge them—suggests military solutions face structural limits.
Discussed by: Gulf state diplomats, regional security analysts
The Houthis' willingness to strike Israel despite previous reluctance signals Iran's escalating control over proxy decision-making. This could alarm Arab states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) that have maintained tacit understandings with Israel. A coordinated Arab-Israeli response against Houthi capabilities could fracture the 'resistance front' narrative and demonstrate that Iran's proxies operate under duress rather than conviction.
7
US joins Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis in Yemen
Likely
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: ABC News and CBS News sources in the Trump administration
With the Houthis attacking King Khalid airport 20 times since October 1 and killing at least 17 people, the administration is weighing direct US participation in the Saudi-led war in Yemen. The GBU-43 is among options under study. US air power would target the Houthi missile and drone infrastructure that has resisted the Saudi campaign since 2015.
8
Iranian plot kills a US official abroad, forcing region-wide embassy closures
Possible
Resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Discussed by: Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton's October 23 memo and State Department officials quoted by NBC News
Clayton told Rubio that lethal plotting by Iran against US citizens had reached advanced stages in the Middle East and in other countries. If an attack on a diplomat or a US official succeeds outside a war zone, the State Department would likely move from partial drawdowns to closing missions outright, including posts already on restricted operations status in Lebanon, Qatar, the UAE and Jordan.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
October 2023 - February 2024
Attacks on US bases during the Gaza war (2023-2024)
After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Iran-backed militias launched over 190 attacks on US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan over four months. The deadliest strike killed three US soldiers at Tower 22 in Jordan on January 28, 2024, when a drone exploited a gap in air defenses. The US retaliated on February 2, 2024, striking 85 targets across Iraq and Syria.
Then
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq paused operations after the US retaliatory strikes, demonstrating that sustained US military pressure could influence militia behavior.
Now
The 2023-2024 campaign established the Islamic Resistance in Iraq as a coordinating brand and demonstrated the militia playbook now being executed at far greater scale in 2026.
Why this matters now
The 2023-2024 campaign totaled roughly 190 attacks over four months with three American deaths. The 2026 conflict has seen comparable attack volumes in days, with 13 US deaths in two weeks — showing the difference between proxy harassment during a regional crisis and proxy warfare during a direct US-Iran conflict.
2 of 3
December 2019 - January 2020
US Embassy Baghdad storming and the Soleimani killing (2019-2020)
After US airstrikes killed 25 Kata'ib Hezbollah fighters, militia supporters physically stormed the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 31, 2019, breaching the outer compound. Three days later, the US killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and Kata'ib Hezbollah commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad Airport. Iran retaliated by firing 12 ballistic missiles at two US bases, causing 110 traumatic brain injuries among American troops.
Then
Iraq's parliament passed a non-binding resolution to expel US forces. The US and Iran pulled back from further escalation through backchannel communication.
Now
The episode set the precedent for direct Iranian ballistic missile strikes on US forces, but at a scale (12 missiles at 2 bases) that now looks restrained compared to the 2026 barrage of hundreds of missiles across seven countries.
Why this matters now
The 2019-2020 cycle shows what restraint looked like — both sides absorbed blows and stopped. In 2026, the killing of Khamenei removed the restraint calculus entirely. The embassy that militia supporters breached on foot in 2019 is now being struck by precision munitions that have disabled its air defenses.
3 of 3
April - October 1983
1983 Beirut barracks bombing and embassy attacks
On April 18, 1983, a truck bomb destroyed the US Embassy in Beirut, killing 63 people including 17 Americans. Six months later, on October 23, a suicide truck bomb hit the US Marine barracks at Beirut International Airport, killing 241 American service members — the deadliest single attack on US forces since the Battle of Iwo Jima. A simultaneous attack killed 58 French paratroopers. Iran-backed Hezbollah was linked to both attacks.
Then
President Reagan withdrew US Marines from Lebanon in February 1984, four months after the barracks bombing.
Now
The withdrawal established a lasting pattern: sustained attacks on US facilities in the Middle East, when combined with sufficient casualties, can alter American force posture. The episode shaped US risk calculus for deploying troops in the region for decades.
Why this matters now
The 1983 precedent is the scenario US military planners want to avoid — where cumulative attacks on a fortified position force a withdrawal that reshapes regional power dynamics. The destruction of the Baghdad embassy's air defenses on March 14 echoes the core vulnerability: even heavily defended US facilities can be degraded by persistent, targeted strikes.
