Since February 28, the US-Iran war has expanded to include critical water infrastructure. On March 8, Iran struck a Bahrain desalination plant.
April attacks escalated. April 3 hit Kuwait power and desalination plants plus the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, April 5 hit Kuwait power-desalination plants and Bahrain's Bapco oil storage, and April 7 hit UAE air defenses and infrastructure. On April 7, the IRGC declared its prior restraint on targeting oil infrastructure and civilian sites in Gulf states 'no longer applies,' following a US strike on Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub.
Gulf states depend on desalination for survival, with Bahrain sourcing 60 percent of its water from such plants and the region holding 60 percent of global desalination capacity. Iran's attacks on power-desalination complexes essential for water production across Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE risk an imminent humanitarian crisis in the world's most water-scarce region, especially with the IRGC's declaration ending restraint. Tit-for-tat strikes are broadening to civilian essentials with no diplomatic off-ramp visible.